NC

@OnodaCapital is that a fair read, theres a holdco discount

What does SATS imply for true value of SPCX? Like -50% from here?

@PythiaR @Msp194 @viggy_krishnan Dont really know though of course. just was my gut reaction

@PythiaR @Msp194 @viggy_krishnan think mainly IP based moats at risk if said IP assets lack sufficient *other* moats - e.g. capital, supply chain, distribution, installed base, trust, inertia, maybe brand, regulation. RSI ain't doing nothing to rail or waste moats. nor coke/pepsi, etc

This is the thing. If RSI makes chip design easier, wouldn't that just 1) speed up $NVDA as well esp. given they have their own models and can push on the gas for those whenever they want; 2) they have locked up supply & LT partnership with TSMC and even if you design a chip you still need that to produce it or the design is kinda worthless. Basically everything is just bullish $TSM

@viggy_krishnan @PythiaR also, if a country of geniuses in a DC is realistic, we're going to be very compute constrained for a long time. therefore I don't see this RSI commoditizing chip design idea as a semis bear case, its actually a bull case

@viggy_krishnan @PythiaR Not sure individual chip design is the moat today anyways - probably 4-5 GPUs and CPUs that are competitive on a per chip basis. Mode of competition for GPUs is system design & ecosystem support which involves hard engineering, physical, and coordination problems

@benthompson banger @stratechery article today!

@tangentstyle i think investors dont care about this for better or for worse

@viggy_krishnan MAI is going for the frontier imo

@patrick_oshag being a hater is bad so is being obsequious ...

What an absolute joke At start of my career we did a ton of business in Canada and getting mentioned in the G&M was like WSJ or NYTimes I cannot believe they printed this headline Enough ink has been spilled on Elon but this inspires me to write a Colossus Elon profile. Lord.

@OnodaCapital "we are not here to pump SpaceX at $1.77 trillion"

@OnodaCapital incredible

“We are SELLING into this” - Brad Gerstner, June 1 Did he not know they’d publish the All-In Summit panel?

the idea that building data center shells fast is a sustainable competitive advantage will age like milk

@PythiaR @blankspacenom @Anointed_Ape but what time period for revisions..bc AVGO 2028 just got raised by a lot. I think answer is next twelve months matter most

I guess my point was: you can own NVDA/AVGO because they're cheap, but I don't think estimates are in a massively wrong place for either of those. But the corrollary of that is realizing that disconnect is probably going to take a long time. Vs. semicap I own because estimates are just way too low, but I expect that re-rate to come much more quickly. I just think YTD all the performance disparities are explained by chasing revisions: AVGO/NVDA funding shorts/poor longs because there aren't any. Only way to realize value from them is just to wait.

Random thoughts: oerhaps $AVGO reaction was due to Mediatek taking share but I think that was already so well known, the bigger read was the refusal to up AI revenue guidance, which ostensibly was because $AVGO sees all the supply chain constraints. One of my concerns, given the fantastic returns for semis now, is that estimates rise to the point where the downside comes not from AI demand falling short, but from the ecosystem just not being able to hit targets because you can't build fast enough.

@citrini are you the spokesperson of markets?

I know everyone hated this because stocks should go up in a straight line forever, but it’s actually a good thing the market has had some weakness and a chance to revisit the 50 day. Building up the wall of worry to take it down is an integral part of continued bull markets.

@Midnight_Captl open source maxi's gonna be in shambles once they understand RSI

@jake_ayes @PythiaR good call here

@PythiaR Just means it can rally 10% on Monday man don’t worry

It's literally never been so over

@viggy_krishnan @BluthCapital @BuffaloBillCo it sounds like you're a lot more worried about this from semis POV than cloud POV - don't you think this would be pretty brutal for AWS & Azure too. If AWS spends like $400bn in 2028 and they wake up with underutilization, rental price hits, AND a ton of slack capacity at neo's

I’m stunned people legitimately seem to believe AI is going to replace like $2-5T a year of labor expense within the next 5 years…

@benitoz wtf does this mean man

NVIDIA + SK hynix isn’t a supplier deal. It’s the AI factory stack locking in: HBM for Vera Rubin, Vera CPUs, RTX Spark, Jetson Thor, robotics, digital twins, and AI-run fabs. HBM isn’t memory anymore. It’s the oxygen layer of AI

the same Sundar the media said is a "peacetime CEO" that needs to be ousted is gunning half a trillion in 2028 capex. truly incredible.

@pitandhummus its easy..google equity raise and not so subtly saying debt following right behind, ai xpv, etc.

@NoCapCapital5 Enlighten us plz

If investors properly digest what was announced last week, SOXX should gap up this week