Patrick OShaughnessy

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Patrick OShaughnessy

Patrick OShaughnessy

@patrick_oshag

building @psumvc @colossusmag hosting @investlikebest

New York, NY Katılım Haziran 2013
2.4K Takip Edilen330.4K Takipçiler
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Thinking about it more, this company is really four things in one, which lets it deliver a pristine experience at a great price: 1) R&D (designing its own tech) 2) manufacturing 3) a medical clinic 4) a consumer brand Hope we see more similar big swings in other markets
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

We need to all work hard to live as long as possible, and in good health. I’ve met many companies trying to support this mission. One stands out, that those in the US haven’t experienced yet. I was blown away by the experience at @neko in London. Insanely well crafted patient experience, 30 min from start to finish, £300 (way cheaper than most), and immediate blood/skin/other results that a doctor walks you through live. They are focused on detecting and monitoring the things that most predict potential health problems at a very affordable annual cost. They’ve developed all their own technology, which feels like living in the future, now. They are opening in NYC soon. Go in London if you can. Future is bright in so many ways. Thanks to @shak and @HNilsonne for hosting us. Go try it!

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Invest Like the Best
Invest Like the Best@InvestLikeBest·
Paul Tudor Jones on what he learned about investing from Warren Buffett, after spending 50 years as a trader: "My big lesson is you're going to make your money by riding a trend for the longest time. There are many different ways to achieve it. You can own a company like Bill Gates. Or you can be like Warren Buffet, one of those value investors I used to sit there and rail on Warren Buffett year after year. I'd say he just happened to be in the right place at the right time and caught this bull market. Our fund has a minus 0.12 correlation with the S&P 500 over 40 years. So 100% of our returns are alpha. That's the difference between investing and trading. I was just thinking, why couldn't I be Warren Buffett? Just believe in America, and when you're down 50%, who cares, because America's gonna bring you through. I feel like I've been a right guard in the NFL for 50 years, fighting in the trenches every day. I've always envied that belief system. It's worked so well for so long. He understood the power of compound interest at nine years old. What a genius."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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Ibrahim Ajami
Ibrahim Ajami@IbrahimAjami·
Heading to the wild with @boydvarty and 4 of my close brothers for a week of lion tracking, silence, and deep reconnection 🌍🦁 3 years ago I was walking the streets of London, discovered a @tferriss podcast with Boyd, ordered *The Lion Tracker’s Guide to Life* instantly and devoured it in 2 days 📖❤️ I started sending screenshots to a friend going through a difficult time. He read it, loved it, bought 10 copies and shared them across Abu Dhabi. The book then reached another close friend… who declared: “We’re all going on Boyd’s safari.” After months of calls and waiting lists (it was booked for years), we finally got our spot ✨ Now, 2 years later — we’re off. A week of nature, lion tracking, stillness, earth connection, and Boyd’s legendary wisdom. I’ll be open-sourcing everything I feel with the lions. Stay tuned 🔥
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
We need to all work hard to live as long as possible, and in good health. I’ve met many companies trying to support this mission. One stands out, that those in the US haven’t experienced yet. I was blown away by the experience at @neko in London. Insanely well crafted patient experience, 30 min from start to finish, £300 (way cheaper than most), and immediate blood/skin/other results that a doctor walks you through live. They are focused on detecting and monitoring the things that most predict potential health problems at a very affordable annual cost. They’ve developed all their own technology, which feels like living in the future, now. They are opening in NYC soon. Go in London if you can. Future is bright in so many ways. Thanks to @shak and @HNilsonne for hosting us. Go try it!
Patrick OShaughnessy tweet mediaPatrick OShaughnessy tweet mediaPatrick OShaughnessy tweet mediaPatrick OShaughnessy tweet media
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Peter Hebert
Peter Hebert@peterjhebert·
Another incredible @patrick_oshag interview. PTJ has had an extraordinary social impact (founder of philanthropic innovator Robin Hood) and trading legend. What a life well lived. Was not expecting to hear him espouse the analytical benefits of journalism (59:00)
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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Christina Cacioppo
Christina Cacioppo@christinacaci·
It took us two years to grow from $10 mm to $100 mm in Annual Recurring Revenue and 15 months to reach $200 mm. Nine months later, we crossed $300 mm. Vanta’s growth rate increased each of the past four quarters – compounding really is the eighth wonder of the world! “But wait,” you might be thinking. “How does a software company founded before 2022 *increase* its growth rate?” Narrative violation!
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Paul on why writing and communicating clearly is one of the most important skills in business: "Journalism 101 should be a mandatory subject in every college. I took journalism classes, and newspaper writing teaches you how to write where the conclusion comes first. It's taking whatever event transpired, and putting it in this cogent way where the most important stuff starts at the beginning, and you work your way down through it. Particularly where, in today's world, the attention spans are this short, time clearly is money. You want to be able to communicate in the quickest and most concise fashion you can, where you get your entire point across in the shortest amount of time. As a macro thinker – man, it helped me so much to frame every potential trading decision. Let's say that there's 10 really important things. Every one of those will have its day. It'll rotate through in terms of importance. The yen's a great example. It's been completely undervalued for the past 24 months. It's so ripe to rally sharply, but it needed a catalytic moment. And that catalytic moment was this new Prime Minister that was just elected. So if you take valuation, which everyone's ignored now for the past two years in the yen, all of a sudden this moment takes it from here and puts it at the very top. That's literally what trading is all about."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
I first read this post on PTJ by @trengriffin more than a decade ago, and it's a great complement to the episode. It's a collection of lessons and quotes, and remains one of the best summaries of how Paul approaches trading and what separates him from everyone else. Well worth reading (or revisiting). 1/ "The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge." 2/ "Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don't ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead." 3/ "While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it." 4/ "I love trading macro. If trading is like chess, then macro is like three-dimensional chess. It is just hard to find a great macro trader. When trading macro, you never have a complete information set or information edge the way analysts can have when trading individual securities." 5/ "I really don't care about the mistake I made three seconds ago in the market. What I care about is what I am going to do from the next moment on. I try to avoid any emotional attachment to a market." 6/ "I am always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control." 7/ "I want the guy who is not giving to panic, who is not going to be overly emotionally involved, but who is going to hurt when he loses. When he wins, he's going to have quiet confidence. But when he loses, he's gotta hurt." 8/ "I've done really well on the short side. There's nothing more exciting than a bear market.  But it's not a wonderful way for long-term health and happiness." 9/ "The sweet spot is when you find something with a compelling valuation that is also just beginning to move up. That's every investor's dream."
Patrick OShaughnessy tweet media
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Want to come help make more episodes like this? We need to hire a producer as we continue to expand. Two main prerequisites are 1) to love business, investing, tech, and 2) to want to make amazing things (and raise the standard for what amazing means) DM me.
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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Scott Goodwin
Scott Goodwin@skgoodwin23·
I spent a summer during college at Tudor learning trading tactics and life lessons from Paul that I’ve applied every day since. Thank you @ptj_official and @patrick_oshag for sharing some of these lessons on family, giving, trading, and risk with the world.
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Paul Tudor Jones on the moment early in his career that taught him the difference between investing and trading. He watched Bunker Hunt go from the richest man on Earth to nearly bankrupt in six weeks: "Bunker Hunt was squeezing silver at the time, and he bought about 200 million ounces at an average price of about $3.50. And between 1976 and 1980, inflation started ripping and silver went literally through the roof. By like 1979, silver was around $30 an ounce, and all of a sudden he was worth about five or six billion. So he buys 20 million ounces at $35. And it just roofed. Goes to $50. He's worth about 11 billion and he's got a multiple of five or six on the next closest guy. I just couldn't even believe what I had seen and how much money that this guy had made. COMEX made it liquidation only and silver collapsed. It went from $50 to under $10 in the space of about eight weeks. And that had a searing impact on me, to see him go from the richest guy to virtually bankrupt in the short space of six or seven weeks. Right then and there, I would never own anything or trust anything for the rest of my life. My grandfather, when I was really young, he said, "Son, you're only worth what you can write a check for tomorrow." So liquidity's always been something that's been in my DNA. I had this friend; he was such a character. We were brokers at that time at E.F. Hutton. And we called him The Mortician because he'd get an account with 10,000, churn about a $100,000 in commissions, take it to a million bucks, and then have it in deficit. So you learned that liquidity was really important because the volatility was so huge. We're all living on the edge. So that had a real impact on me. The idea of owning something for the long run was laughable, because look how much money you could make by trading in the short run."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Even at 71, Paul still carries himself with the kind of energy and zest for life most people lose much earlier. I asked him what makes a great life: "God, family, friends, fun, and service." "My significance is not gonna be from being a trader. My significance is gonna be my family." "If I think about the end of my life and I look back, I'm not gonna be thinking about the 1987 crash or Bitcoin. I'm gonna be thinking about who I loved and who loved me, and what kind of times we had." "When I say legacy, I don't mean words. I mean deeds. What have you done that allowed other people to enjoy and better their station in life?"
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Paul Tudor Jones: "2000 was the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life. It's got so many similarities to right now."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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Toad Capital
Toad Capital@rich_toad·
"I will make time to listen to the PTJ podcast with @patrick_oshag, stop nagging me" - I said to myself
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: "We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008. The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now. Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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Alex
Alex@CtRedLFC·
@alphatrends this is a huge get for @patrick_oshag ! you could probably count on one hand the number of times PTJ has sat for a podcast look forward to watching this
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