Patrick OShaughnessy

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Patrick OShaughnessy

Patrick OShaughnessy

@patrick_oshag

building @psumvc @colossusmag hosting @investlikebest

New York, NY Katılım Haziran 2013
2.5K Takip Edilen346.2K Takipçiler
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Sam on OpenAI's structure and having no equity: "I think we made a mistake in trying to innovate in our structure in the beginning. We didn't know how we were ever gonna make money, and we really, at the time, weren't sure at all what we were gonna look like when we grew up. We wanted to be structured in a way where even if the technology went on a very fast takeoff, our mission was protected. We would've saved ourselves a great deal of pain in many ways if we had not tried to innovate on our structure. I really learned over the last decade a big lesson about why people don't usually do that. I don't know what I can say beyond I have a front row seat to the most exciting moment in human history. That is worth more to me than any amount of money. I get to have an extremely interesting life and work with extraordinary people on something that I deeply care about."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons

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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
This prompt “something I don’t want you to know about me” which I got from my friend @BoydVarty is one of my all time favorite conversation starters/deepeners. If you answer it honestly it leads to awesome discussions. Highly recommended.
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

Something Sam Altman doesn't want you to know about him: "I'm tired. This is the coolest job in the world. I plan to do this for the rest of my career. But it's much harder than I have a way to explain to people."

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Jeff Richards
Jeff Richards@jrichlive·
"If we could go back to 2019 and show people our latest model, not only would they say that it's AGI, they would say that the economy would have been completely upended... That has not happened."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons

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Invest Like the Best
Invest Like the Best@InvestLikeBest·
Sam Altman: "I'm not a jobs doomer at all. I think there are gonna be tons of jobs.” If we could go back to 2019 and show people our latest model, not only would they say that it's AGI, they would say that the economy would have been completely upended. And that has not happened. Anytime you're that wrong and that confident, which I think we were as a field, you have to update. AI is just very jagged. It's like superhuman genius in some ways, like dumb toddler in others. And people have, so far, extremely complementary skills to AI. It’s not taste…the world may need a new kind of word for the kind of judgment that people are very good at that AIs seem to really deeply struggle with. You can go hire an AI consultant right now or talk to an AI sales rep or hire an AI engineer. And somehow most people seem to still really prefer interacting with a human. I definitely would rather engage with a person than engage with an AI for almost everything. Human values have value because they're human. We are deeply hardwired to care about people.”
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons

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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Sam on being a parent while running OpenAI: “I think I have the best, most interesting job in the world, and it is still a very distant second to having kids.” “My kids will never grow up in a world where they were smarter than computers.” “People ask me, now that you have kids, do you care more about AI safety? The answer is, I didn't need kids for that. I really didn't want to destroy the world before.”
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons

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Marco Mascorro
Marco Mascorro@Mascobot·
This is spot on about Alec Radford. He's probably the most brilliant, relatively unknown, and humble researcher out there, and also one of the kindest, most genuine people you could ever meet. He's an inspiration to many.
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Something Sam Altman doesn't want you to know about him: "I'm tired. This is the coolest job in the world. I plan to do this for the rest of my career. But it's much harder than I have a way to explain to people."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons

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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Sam Altman: “Concentration of power with AI is a terrifying thing.” "A lot of the talk about safety concerns is well-founded, and then a lot of it is about people that just really, even if it's slightly subconscious, wanna concentrate power. I don't think anyone should want to live in a world of AI overlords, where someone is making decisions for all of the future, and in exchange for a cure for cancer,  which obviously is a wonderful thing, we collectively cede all agency. I am terrified of a world where the very real fears of AI are used as a way to say, “Only this small group of people can have it because it's too dangerous, and only they understand it. But don't worry, they're gonna make the right decisions for all of us.” I was a child of the internet. There were no rules. It was amazing, and I think it's critical we preserve that spirit with AI."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons

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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Sam on Kimi, distillation, and open source: “I have always assumed that there are going to be great cheap models in the world, and we better be the greatest and the cheapest. You get a better deal today, at least at a particular latency, using OpenAI's models than Kimi. We distill our own models. That’s how we make smaller, cheaper models. That’s a very good thing to do. There will clearly be an important place for open source models in the world and people that will want their own weights. We have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantically high-margin business to be able to afford model training. I would rather people not distill from us, for sure. But this is not in my top ten list of worries.”
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons

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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Sam on the Hugging Face incident: “This is the first security incident that I have felt very viscerally. I've been a little surprised that more people don't feel it so viscerally. We paused training. We have to figure out how to secure our sandboxing in a world of multiple zero days being chained together. We may have to pace the rate of AI development to give ourselves enough time for society to harden around these new capability levels. And trying to figure out how we do that in a way that does not feel like regulatory capture for anyone and also does not feel like collusion among the frontier labs.”
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons

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Joshua Kushner
Joshua Kushner@JoshuaKushner·
if not you then who
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Business Breakdowns
Business Breakdowns@bizbreakdowns·
Qasar Younis was COO of Y Combinator when Sam Altman was its president. Peter Ludwig was an early engineer on Android Automotive at Google. Both are Detroit guys with family roots at General Motors. In 2017, they started Applied Intuition to make a billion machines intelligent. Putting intelligence into a machine is one of the hardest problems in technology. A car, a tractor, and a mining vehicle each have different hardware, different sensors, and lives on the line if the software fails. So instead of building one machine, they built the technology that goes into all of them. Cars, trucks, defense vehicles, mining equipment, combines, robots. Like Nvidia sells chips into everyone else's machines, Applied Intuition sells intelligence. They are the only company in the world that does this across all of these industries. They have raised about a billion dollars. They have never spent any of it. Qasar believes that when we look back 25 years from now, the most important companies in the world will all be physical AI companies. Last week they launched Dana, an agent platform built to get there faster. Enjoy! @qasar @AppliedInt Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 4:08 Why Physical AI Will Be Enormous 5:54 What Applied Intuition Actually Builds 9:25 Timing the Autonomous Revolution 13:59 From Tools to a Full AI Stack 21:40 Why Chatbots Can’t Build Robots 25:18 The Physical AI Data Flywheel 28:19 The Moat Behind Machine Intelligence 30:13 What’s Slowing Physical AI Down? 32:30 Applied Intuition’s Business Model 36:10 Competing in a Massive Market 39:24 The Hardware Renaissance 41:09 Why They Raised $1 Billion 43:49 A World Filled With Intelligent Machines
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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
Excited to welcome Sequoia, a16z, SK Hynix and many other amazing investors into the fold! @sonyatweetybird and I were joking about how we now compare the energy inside other companies to that you feel in the Etched office. It is hard to compare.
Etched@Etched

We’ve raised $300M in Series C funding at a $10.3B valuation from Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Jane Street, Argo, and SK Hynix. Our mission is to run the world's inference. This round accelerates production of our inference clusters. We've opened an 80,000-sqft, 10-MW facility 15 minutes from our office to expedite production and prototyping.

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Casey Handmer
Casey Handmer@CJHandmer·
Fascinating conversation on future demand for gas. 1. Obviously @terraformindies can contribute on the supply side, independent of oil production or reservoir maturity. 2. Hyperscalers are running an electrical process and it will increasingly make sense to switch to pure solar plus batteries to run AI. 3. Gas production requires constant expenditure of focused capital to frack and finish wells. I think the market drastically underestimates the preference of that capital to move sideways into other energy production methods, which means that fracking could cut over in just a couple of years when the threshold is reached. No long slow fade.
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

Matthew Smith has spent the last 18 months modeling every well, pipeline, storage facility, and power plant in the American natural gas system. His conclusion is that the US is heading toward a natural gas shortage with no precedent, beginning in 2028. By 2030, he believes we could exhaust our working natural gas storage entirely. The fuel everyone in AI is counting on, and that everyone assumes is abundant, is not there. And because gas sets the price of electricity in most of the country, he argues Americans will pay for the shortage in their power bills. Matthew has worked in energy markets for over 20 years and is the CIO of Chronometer Partners. This is his second time on the show, and he's one of my favorite people to talk to about energy. We discuss: - Why the bottleneck is moving from power to fuel - Why we can't just shut off exports - 2028 as the inflection point - Large-scale nuclear v. SMRs - Who wins, who loses, and what can still be done Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:30 What Drives the Deficit 11:00 Why Supply Can’t Catch Up 20:35 The 2030 Gas Crisis 25:05 Winners and Losers 29:00 Nuclear and Solar 33:30 Consumers Pay the Bill 37:20 AI’s Next Shortage 45:25 Solutions and Global Stakes 51:15 The Coming Gas Knife Fight

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Patrick OShaughnessy
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag·
As part of Matthew's letter (which I recommend reading in its entirety) he includes an appendix of expected pushback. It lays out the objections and his responses across available gas resource, midstream, power, and LNG. On available gas resource: "Technical gas-in-place and 'recoverable resource' do not mean the gas is economic or will ever be produced. The industry has tested 500-600-ft spacing and single wells were materially less productive due to well cannibalization. Child wells are significantly less productive than the parent wells and therefore far less capital efficient. Much higher prices are required to drill infill wells in the Marcellus. The same is true in Haynesville. Significant infrastructure will also be required. It is currently not contemplated." On midstream: "It takes years to build new gathering systems, processing, pipeline and other infrastructure, and if it is to be built to solve the acute tightening in 2028, the market would already be aware of the projects." On power: "We are modeling natural gas from the wellhead, and whether it is behind-the-meter or grid connected, it is consuming natural gas. All incremental natural gas power generation contributes to the natural gas deficit beyond 2027. Any behind-the-meter projects pull forward the natural gas tightness we foresee." On LNG: "U.S. LNG exports will make up approximately one-third of global LNG supply by 2030. The majority of the 35 Bcf per day of approved LNG nameplate capacity is either contracted or likely to be contracted to global counterparties, including foreign utilities. LNG contracts are generally long-lived, volumes are predetermined, and the contract terms are used to finance the LNG projects. Unwinding these commitments is a complicated and expensive proposition."
Patrick OShaughnessy tweet mediaPatrick OShaughnessy tweet media
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

Matthew Smith has spent the last 18 months modeling every well, pipeline, storage facility, and power plant in the American natural gas system. His conclusion is that the US is heading toward a natural gas shortage with no precedent, beginning in 2028. By 2030, he believes we could exhaust our working natural gas storage entirely. The fuel everyone in AI is counting on, and that everyone assumes is abundant, is not there. And because gas sets the price of electricity in most of the country, he argues Americans will pay for the shortage in their power bills. Matthew has worked in energy markets for over 20 years and is the CIO of Chronometer Partners. This is his second time on the show, and he's one of my favorite people to talk to about energy. We discuss: - Why the bottleneck is moving from power to fuel - Why we can't just shut off exports - 2028 as the inflection point - Large-scale nuclear v. SMRs - Who wins, who loses, and what can still be done Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:30 What Drives the Deficit 11:00 Why Supply Can’t Catch Up 20:35 The 2030 Gas Crisis 25:05 Winners and Losers 29:00 Nuclear and Solar 33:30 Consumers Pay the Bill 37:20 AI’s Next Shortage 45:25 Solutions and Global Stakes 51:15 The Coming Gas Knife Fight

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