Christopher Devine
6K posts
Christopher Devine
@ProfDevine
Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Dayton. Author, "I'm Here to Ask for Your Vote" & "Do Running Mates Matter?"
Ohio, USA 参加日 Mayıs 2016
919 フォロー中1.2K フォロワー
Today, I was instituted 7th Rector of St. Stephen’s Church (ADFW) in Hurst, TX.
Bishop Ryan Reed, presiding; Fr. Jeff Logan, preaching.
Soli Deo Gloria.
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@terrygatwood That just be a challenge, given the wide sweep of the book. Enjoy the chase—and merry Christmas!
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@ProfDevine Chasing down the references in the book has been fun, as well.
Hope you and the family are well, Doc.
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It’s that time of year. I present to you my Great Eight, the books that I’ve enjoyed the most, learned something from, or think others should read.
Without editorializing, here is this year’s installment in no particular order.
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Me, too! Thanks, @bjrottinghaus--part of an all-star lineup of VP/presidency scholars contributing to this this volume. Can't wait for you all to have a chance to read it soon (spring 2026).
Brandon Rottinghaus@bjrottinghaus
Excited for this excellent volume on vice presidents from @UofMPress edited by @premontk_rine and @ProfDevine! Justin Vaughn (@CCUChanticleers) and I contributed a chapter on scholarly assessments of vice presidential greatness.
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Christopher Devine がリツイート
Excited to announce the formal release of our second collection of essays on politics in the postwar Midwest. It was a dream of mine to put essays in conversation with each other across two volumes. Thx to my co editor @jlauck1941, our amazing contributors, and @kansas_press!
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@awmannes @huzzahmpls @KyleKopko Yeah I suspect no home state VP would’ve flipped a state. Only WI was within 1%, right? Maybe, maybe more moderate VP ( Shapiro, Beshear) could’ve helped across swing states by shifting perceptions of Harris toward center. But I can’t believe any VP would’ve changed the outcome.
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@huzzahmpls I have thoughts. But really this is @ProfDevine and @KyleKopko territory. Maybe (emphasis maayyybe) Jacob Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer would've shifted their states. But that's as much of an effect you could hope for.
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A very simple prescription for Democrats: Just wait.
There's reason to be skeptical toward early campaign-based explanations for Harris' loss. And the issues that might propel a Dem comeback are likely unknown until Trump starts governing.
semafor.com/article/11/08/…
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People always doubt the future viability of parties that lose big elections. But then the pressure goes on the new party in power, voters sour on them, and the circle of life continues.
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Latest numbers: across the seven battleground states, the '20-'24 swing towards Trump was ~3.1 pts. Across the other 43 states (+DC), it was ~6.7 pts.
Bottom line: the Harris campaign swam impressively against some very strong underlying currents.
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“... if someone is looking for someone or something to blame for Kamala Harris’ loss, I don’t think Tim Walz is the right person to focus on.” @ProfDevine tells @StarTribune startribune.com/whats-next-for… #Election2024
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Vance could be a more influential VP than Pence, who handled some high-profile tasks but ultimately didn't hold sway with Trump, @ProfDevine told @DispatchAlerts dispatch.com/story/news/pol…
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My initial take on Trump's win:
goodauthority.org/news/where-to-…
His gains were widespread, so explanations should start with the broadest factors -- not with bespoke stories about states, cities, counties, and groups.
The simplest explanation: party of unpopular incumbent loses.
1/2
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This doesn’t strike as “if only we put forward this other candidate” or “if only more people knocked on doors in PA” or “Harris should’ve talked more about [insert pet issue here].”
This is much deeper than that
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2024 polling error in historical context (for key states):
1. Much better in most of Midwest + NC vs. 16/20.
2. IA big exception. Along w/FL + TX, worst polling misses over last 2 decades.
3. Same direction of error for ~every state for 3rd straight year--this is not normal.
Matt Grossmann@MattGrossmann
If NYT estimates are correct, national polls would be off by 2.4 (compared to 538 averages) & swing state polls would be off 1.9 PA, 4.1 NV, 1.7 GA, 2.5 NC, 2.9 MI, 2.6 WI, & 2.6 AZ. That's not a large average error, though it is systematic in the same direction as 2016 & 2020.
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I cannot say this enough:
- Early exits are not suitable for demographic analysis or comparisons.
- AP/Votecast is still preliminary -- should be adjusted for final vote counts.
- We don't have Catalist. Or Pew validated voters.
It's just too early to have confident takes!
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Staggering class realignment/shift in working class
Harris lost DESPITE major shift of affluent voters her way
2020: Trump wins voters over $100K, 54-52
2024: *Harris* wins voters over $100K, 54-45
2020: Biden wins voters $50K-$100K, 57-42
2024: *Trump* w/ voters $50K-$100K, 49-47
2020: Biden wins voters under $50K, 55-45
2024: Trump massive improvement w/ voters under $50K, 49-48
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If your take on the election starts with the VP pick anywhere in the top 3, you weren’t paying attention last night.
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I counted the yard signs in my neighborhood, and "ADT Home Security" is going to win in a landslide.
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