redfire

DON’T LET ANYONE FOOL YOU, THE BULL MARKET IS OVER. Here are the objective reasons why I think the Bear Market just started, and why 2026 could be a terrible year for crypto: —————————————————— 1. Weekly Supertrend Flipped Bearish The weekly Supertrend has acted as a reliable indicator for the start/end of every major Bull & Bear Market. Last week, it flipped Bearish. Historically when this indicator flashes, momentum shifts down and the market tends to struggle. This signal usually marks the start of a longer down trend and I don't expect this time to be different. 2. Bitcoin Breaking Macro Bull Market Support From the start of the Bull Market price has respected this upward sloping trend line as support and has bounced off multiple times. For the first time, we are clearly breaking below this long term trend line which is signaling a macro shift in the market. 3. Two Weekly Closes below the 50W MA When we get two consecutive weekly closes below the 50 Week Moving Average it has marked the end of the Bull Market. Unless Bitcoin can move above $103k by Sunday, we will have officially two weekly closes below this trend line. This only didn’t lead to a full Bear Market once (2021). But historically, this leads to much lower prices more often than not. So although it is not a guaranteed, it is likely we will have a bearish 2026. 4. Time Based Indicators Flashing Sell Based on the 4 year market cycle theory, the top should already be in. Whether it’s measured from the bottom, halving, or peak, the data says that we are out of time. Could this cycle be longer than usual? Sure. But I believe it’s safer to trade the data, than to think “this time is different” Also, every cycle top has happened in Q4 of the post halving year. This would line up with the October high. So although we could theoretically put in a new All time high in December, it would still be very unlikely given the current state of the market. 5. Death Cross Marking End of Cycle At the end of every major bull cycle, the “final” Death Cross confirms the downtrend. We just printed one this week. Although Death Crosses often mark local bottoms and I do expect a rally into a lower high, I still think we ultimately trend lower throughout 2026. Even if we push up toward the 200-Day MA, I’d expect that level to reject price. Final Conclusion: Although we are overall in a macro bear market, I still do believe we will have some counter trend rallies as I discussed in other posts. Even in Bear Markets, the price does not go down in a straight line. Although many will be mad at this view, the Bear Market brings a lot of opportunity and where most people can truly get rich. I do not wish anyone to lose money, I just want to give an objective outlook on the market. Last Cycle, I round tripped a ton of money and felt really horrible when the bear market started. Ignoring the bigger picture is how people round trip their entire stack. I did it last cycle and felt awful. If this helps even one person avoid that, it’s worth sharing. I am still a long term bull, but I think it is important to look at the data objectively and put your bias to the side. I do wish we had longer, and also wish some of my token prices went higher, but that is not what the data suggests. I think although 2026 will be bad, it will be one of the best times to get into the space at a discount. This is my realistic view of the cycle. Thanks for reading and hope this helps!