Roaming Capital

BLOCKBUSTER drug… no actually in fact BLOCKBUSTER SHORT! It is finally time to short $crvs The market is pricing Soquelitinib as this de risked blockbuster. In reality though and I’ll go into detail below it is a commercially OBSOLETE asset with engineered/cherry picked data and a fragile safety window that is a ticking time bomb. First, it’s funny that we’re so price sensitive (stock goes up so that means all of a sudden everything is okay). No one is talking about the engineered enrollment anymore. The bull case relies on the 75% EASI 75 numbers seen in Cohort 4. But if you look deeper this efficacy is actually an artifact of selection bias, not robust drug performance. How am I comfortable saying that publicly? Well we know Atopic Dermatitis (AD) is heterogeneous. Th2 dominant pts are, so to say, "easy responders." Th1/Mixed phenotype pts are notoriously difficult. So just pay attention for a second… the trial was blinded to the patient, but not to the company. $crvs had access to screening biomarkers (tape strips). Now to me, and if you look closely enough you’ll see, they front loaded the trial with pure Th2 phenotypes to generate the initial data that everyone is raving about. Look at Cohort 4 specifically the 'rigging' is extremely smart. They didn't just pick 'easy' pts, they picked the perfect biological match for their mechanism while ignoring the harder rw pop. The cohort was 41.7% Black/African American and only 25% White. Why does this matter? Because immunologically, African American AD is characterized by an intense Th2/Th22 skew with sig attenuated Th1/Th17 activation. They are mechanically the "perfect responders" for an ITK inhibitor. In contrast, Asian AD (only 25% of the cohort) carries a heavy "psoriasis like" Th17 signature, and European AD is highly heterogeneous. By front loading the trial with this "Super Th2" demographic, they are generating efficacy data that will not replicate in a pivotal Ph 3 trial that requires a representative mix of White and Asian pts, whose Th1/Th17 driven disease will likely break right through Soquelitinib’s blockade. Even worse, look at the pbo arm: 58.3% of pbo pts had prior systemic failures compared to only 41.7% in the drug arm. They stacked the deck with "perfect responders" on the drug and "refractory/hard to treat" pts on the pbo to artificially widen the delta. Note the subtle EASI score variability as the cohorts expanded. This likely represents the exhaustion of the cherry picked Th2 pool. As they are forced to enroll Th1/Mixed patients in ph 2, the efficacy signal will dilute significantly. Okay moving on to point 2. Let’s say even if the drug works... Soquelitinib is a twice daily (BID) pill. In the I&I market, once daily (QD) is the mandate. Also, I’m personally not the biggest fan of the oral STAT6 class, but I'd take it over a BID ITK inhibitor any day. Why would BP acquire a BID ITK inhibitor (with limited Th1 coverage) when they can own the QD Oral STAT6 class that targets the validated pathway? Now I hear the bulls screaming: "But they are trying a 200mg QD arm in Phase 2, that could be decent!" Let’s be real that is a confession of weakness, not strength. If they actually had conviction in their BID profile, they wouldn’t be frantically testing a Hail Mary QD arm this late in the game. They know BID is commercially dead against competitors like $KYMR. Speaking of… for anyone saying "oh look at $KYMR valuation right now to justify $CRVS being valued over $2B" (which btw I called as a short at $100 and is ~$70 now), that is a flawed argument. The market and BP will always overvalue sexy science like degraders. Should this really be a $2B company? I get putting a premium on cool proprietary science, but $CRVS is a BASIC kinase inhibitor. 1/n

Wild regulatory standoff for $CERT.V in Portugal! The Lagoa Salgada EIA saga just exploded: 1.Cerrado declared the project APPROVED by default (“Tacit Approval”) as the agency (APA) missed its legal deadline. 2.APA panicked & issued a REJECTION… after the deadline had passed

Even without taking a long-term view, the PSU market is going to grow massively starting next year. What’s really unfortunate is that most major PSU makers are Taiwanese companies. For me, investing in Taiwanese stocks is a bit tricky.

New position $NDO at 72.5c avg From the same guy who built and sold Think Childcare. The business model here is very strong, only buying centres from their incubator at 80%+ occupancy Huge growth pipeline - trading like a shitco - once a couple funds want it will be 15x EPS

Pretty incredible outcome for $TNK $TNK.AX holders Caught an initial bid of $1.35 in Nov 2020 Today seal a deal for $3.41 including franking credits 🔥🔥

Checking out brokers, HOOD was 25% the revenue size of IBKR revenue two years ago, now almost 50%. Interesting thing is on non-interest revenue they have already surpased IBKR. And the last two quarters HOOD started to grow margin and securities lending aggressively, so the gap there will close too. All this probably well reflected on realtive valuations. Still a vastly different customer base for equities, but may now coming head to head on predictions, crypto etc. On the Asia side, FUTU remains 4-5x the size of TIGR and still growing at similar rates, maintaining share. 30% of FUTU customer trading volume is now in HK (from 20%) they prob have the most country-agnostic customers, which will go where things are moving (i dont have stats for HOOD or IBKR but I assume 90% is US trading). I'm long FUTU at 20x LTM (on record earnings, maybe 25x with a couple of avg trading quarters). Asia casino junket for the financialization of everything gambling gallore.

Speculative long in $ACMR today. Stop at 33, target somewhere in the 40s. Supplier of semiconductor cleaning materials, primarily to China. Name got slammed earlier this year on export controls, etc, now that China chips are hot I think its worth a look. They own most of 688082 CH in China, ACM Research Shanghai. Long 3,600 at $33, stop around there, think it could trade into the upper 40s if the China chips trade keeps going.