
Stock.Logging
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Stock.Logging
@stock_logging
▶️ Quality GARP investor ▶️ Looking for (potential) high-margin & capital-light compounders ▶️ Aiming for 20 % portfolio return p.a. ▶️ Not investment advice


Quick update: Portfolio moves so far this month & some macro thoughts 📣 1️⃣ Added to $196A.T MFS Inc, a Japanese microcap with $16m USD mcap. ➢ To me, MFS is one of the most interesting opportunities right now. I’ll post a more detailed deep dive on this stock in the next few days, but here is a rough outline of my investment case: ➢ The company has two segments: ▪️ A: Mogecheck, the leading mortgage comparison platform in Japan, with historically very strong growth rates (43% in 2024, 38% in 2025) and EBIT margins above 20%. In the current FY (07/01/25 – 06/30/26), they are transitioning the revenue model from a click-based lead model (i.e., compensation for each loan application submitted via Mogecheck, regardless of approval) to success-based completion fees (banks only pay when the loan gets approved). ▪️ While the long-term monetization potential of the new revenue model is significantly higher, this resulted in a short-term revenue drop of -37% in H1 and negative EBIT. This is because loan approvals typically take 3-6 months at partner banks, while customer acquisition costs are incurred upfront. In the next FY, growth rate and EBIT margin should return to historical levels. ▪️ B: The second segment is Invase, a digital real estate investment platform for affluent clients. Revenue comes partly from brokerage fees, but the company recently began acting as a short-term buyer and seller of properties as well. Excluding the resulting revenue inflation (as purchase and sale prices of the properties are recorded in the company's own books), this segment grew by 113% YoY in H1. ▪️ And it appears that growth is accelerating further: website traffic has recently more than 5x’ed compared to the October–December period (see picture below). ➢ Meanwhile, the stock is trading near all-time lows at a fwd P/E of 16 for FY 07/01/25 – 06/30/26 and a fwd P/E of 7 for the next FY (07/01/26 – 06/30/27), based on my own estimates. This is quite an interesting contrast between business performance and current share price. ➢ The company has a clean balance sheet with no net debt and carries no credit risk itself. Operating leverage should be quite significant going forward. Trading liquidity is also quite good for this market cap, with about $142k USD in daily trading volume. 2️⃣ Added to $HROW. ➢ The stock was severely punished after Q4 results, losing more than 30% in just a few days. In my opinion, this is completely overblown. ➢ Q4 saw a miss in profitability metrics due to a one-time effect from the Melt acquisition. The 2026 guidance was below market consensus, but clearly sandbagged to establish a beat-and-raise pattern. I view this reset of expectations as a long-term positive. ➢ Otherwise, I see all long-term growth drivers as intact. At >$50, the stock might have been a bit expensive, but at around $36, I think it’s too cheap (2027e EV/EBITDA: 7, 2027e fwd P/E: 13). You can find a great summary of the current situation at $HROW in this article by @mvcinvesting: mvcinvesting.substack.com/p/harrow-hrow-… 3️⃣ These buys were funded by a small trim of $ELS.AX. ➢ The stock rose about 20% this month following the Iran conflict and is up 85% YTD. Portfolio concentration exceeded 20% a few days ago, and the valuation is becoming increasingly demanding. Nevertheless I’m still convinced of the company and its massive long-term growth potential, which is why I only sold about 8% of my position. 4️⃣ Macro situation ➢ Otherwise, I don’t plan on making any further sales this month. I don’t think it’s useful to try to time or predict macro events like the Iran war. I almost completely stayed away from X over the weekend to avoid being influenced by all the doom-talk. ➢ Although I definitely see the situation as tense and agree that the conflict should not be taken lightly, de-escalation signals from the US are clearly increasing. So I personally don’t expect a months-long conflict, but as I said - I cannot and do not want to make any concrete predictions, as the situation is very dynamic. Markets will likely remain volatile, but I feel well-positioned for the current phase with my portfolio. ➢ As is well known, annual stock returns are often generated on just a few days of significant gains. This could be, for example, a day when a peace agreemen (temporary or permanent) is reached between the conflicting parties. That is why I believe market timing is more or less senseless in the current situation.


1/ $YB TOP IDEA 2026 IS OUT Yuanbao is growing revenue at ~30% year-over-year with 13 consecutive quarters of profitability, yet trades at a P/E of only 5x. Yuanbao is a high-margin AI data engine trading at a fraction of its peers' valuations. seekingalpha.com/article/486287…



$5314.TW Today Myson Century reported its monthly revenue figures (mandatory in Taiwan): ➢ Revenue 12/25: +227.06% YoY ➢ Revenue Q4/25: +318.89% YoY, +53.20% QoQ ➢ Revenue FY 2025: +375.01% YoY ➢ TTM PE (own estimate): 24 Calculation for PE: 40% net margin for FY (Q1-Q3/25 level was 42%) on 3.058b TWD annual revenue = 1.22b TWD net profit. Marketcap at today's closing price: 29.2b TWD. Note for context: Full-year growth, particularly in Q4, was distorted by several acquisitions. Approximately 60% of revenue for FY 2025 is organic, and 40% comes from acquisitions. QoQ growth in Q4/25 compared to Q3/25 would have been approximately 16% without the acquisitions made in Q4.

Actually, I came out pretty enthusiastic. They didn't mention dividends in the PR and were vague on the call, but they gave us a big (yet concealed) hint - the accrual withholding of Q4 tax! The accounting implication is that they are transferring money from their Chinese entity into the US one (probably via the HK entity), and the main reasons for doing this would be - dividends, buybacks or acquisitions. In this case I think it's pretty clear that the reason is an upcoming dividend. While they haven't mentioned it specifically, my guess is that they'll announce the dividend by end of June, and that it'll be around 4%-5%. We might learn more after release of the 20-F (ADR equivalent of the 10-K) by end of April. Their IPO was less than a year ago, and there really are some preparations prior to the first dividend payments, so I believe management when they're saying it's in the works. The relevant text: "Income Tax Expenses. Income tax expenses in the fourth quarter of 2025 were RMB75.4 million (US$10.8 million), representing a 734.9% year-over-year increase from RMB9.0 million in the same period of 2024. This increase was primarily driven by the accrual of withholding income tax in the fourth quarter of 2025."


1/ $YB TOP IDEA 2026 IS OUT Yuanbao is growing revenue at ~30% year-over-year with 13 consecutive quarters of profitability, yet trades at a P/E of only 5x. Yuanbao is a high-margin AI data engine trading at a fraction of its peers' valuations. seekingalpha.com/article/486287…



$YB Strong Q3/25 print from Yuanbao ➢ Revenue +33.59% YoY, +8.22% QoQ ➢ EBIT +39.27% YoY, +19.08% QoQ ➢ 96% GM, 30.6% OM ➢ EPS +20% QoQ Current valuation ➢Fwd. PE 2025: 5.34 ➢Fwd. EV/FCF 2025: 1.89 (!!!) Calculation Achieved from Q1-Q3/2025 were: ➢$2.90 EPS ($3.87 annual.) ➢$169.2 million OCF ($225.6m annual.) ➢OCF more or less = FCF, since CAPEX is almost zero ➢$20.65 share price and 951.56 mcap ➢EV should currently be at $427 million after Q3/25 Further initial observations: ➢As I suspected after the last quarter (due to the growth in number of new policies), growth is now back above 30% YoY, which I find extremely positive. This KPI also looks strong again in Q3 with +41.8% YoY. ➢The EBIT margin is also back at 30% (last seen in Q4/24), confirming the operating leverage the company promised in the Q1/25 call. ➢Negative point: Unfortunately, no news on buybacks or dividends. This is a real shame, as the company is swimming in cash (519m USD, which is almost 55% of its current mcap). Perhaps something will come up in the call. ➢For those who haven't heard yet: Neither management nor the vast majority of other major shareholders sold shares at the end of the lockup period, which demonstrates confidence in the growth prospects and eliminates a major risk. ➢Otherwise, I can only reiterate: IMO Yuanbao is completely mispriced. Waterdrop is trading at a fwd PE of 11.6 for 2025. By this measure, Yuanbao should be trading at a share price of USD 45. More likely even higher, as Yuanbao IMO deserves a premium valuation thanks to its higher margins, better growth, and much higher ROCE. I hope that buybacks/dividends will equalize the valuation difference sooner than later.








$SOFW $SOFW.TA Highly interesting PR from Softwave this morning. ➢ Preliminary revenue Q4/25: 28.6 - 28.9m USD, +56.3% - +57.4% YoY (significantly above my own expectations, see post below) ➢Cash $35.2 million, +33% QoQ & +63% YoY (should be mostly or completely due to strong free cash flow, which would confirm the high operating leverage) ➢Filing of an F1 form with the SEC for a possible US listing (would result in improved trading liquidity - good for large, institutional investors, and potentially a higher valuation multiple in the US) Strong execution once again. maya.tase.co.il/he/reports/com…







Quick update: Portfolio moves so far this month & some macro thoughts 📣 1️⃣ Added to $196A.T MFS Inc, a Japanese microcap with $16m USD mcap. ➢ To me, MFS is one of the most interesting opportunities right now. I’ll post a more detailed deep dive on this stock in the next few days, but here is a rough outline of my investment case: ➢ The company has two segments: ▪️ A: Mogecheck, the leading mortgage comparison platform in Japan, with historically very strong growth rates (43% in 2024, 38% in 2025) and EBIT margins above 20%. In the current FY (07/01/25 – 06/30/26), they are transitioning the revenue model from a click-based lead model (i.e., compensation for each loan application submitted via Mogecheck, regardless of approval) to success-based completion fees (banks only pay when the loan gets approved). ▪️ While the long-term monetization potential of the new revenue model is significantly higher, this resulted in a short-term revenue drop of -37% in H1 and negative EBIT. This is because loan approvals typically take 3-6 months at partner banks, while customer acquisition costs are incurred upfront. In the next FY, growth rate and EBIT margin should return to historical levels. ▪️ B: The second segment is Invase, a digital real estate investment platform for affluent clients. Revenue comes partly from brokerage fees, but the company recently began acting as a short-term buyer and seller of properties as well. Excluding the resulting revenue inflation (as purchase and sale prices of the properties are recorded in the company's own books), this segment grew by 113% YoY in H1. ▪️ And it appears that growth is accelerating further: website traffic has recently more than 5x’ed compared to the October–December period (see picture below). ➢ Meanwhile, the stock is trading near all-time lows at a fwd P/E of 16 for FY 07/01/25 – 06/30/26 and a fwd P/E of 7 for the next FY (07/01/26 – 06/30/27), based on my own estimates. This is quite an interesting contrast between business performance and current share price. ➢ The company has a clean balance sheet with no net debt and carries no credit risk itself. Operating leverage should be quite significant going forward. Trading liquidity is also quite good for this market cap, with about $142k USD in daily trading volume. 2️⃣ Added to $HROW. ➢ The stock was severely punished after Q4 results, losing more than 30% in just a few days. In my opinion, this is completely overblown. ➢ Q4 saw a miss in profitability metrics due to a one-time effect from the Melt acquisition. The 2026 guidance was below market consensus, but clearly sandbagged to establish a beat-and-raise pattern. I view this reset of expectations as a long-term positive. ➢ Otherwise, I see all long-term growth drivers as intact. At >$50, the stock might have been a bit expensive, but at around $36, I think it’s too cheap (2027e EV/EBITDA: 7, 2027e fwd P/E: 13). You can find a great summary of the current situation at $HROW in this article by @mvcinvesting: mvcinvesting.substack.com/p/harrow-hrow-… 3️⃣ These buys were funded by a small trim of $ELS.AX. ➢ The stock rose about 20% this month following the Iran conflict and is up 85% YTD. Portfolio concentration exceeded 20% a few days ago, and the valuation is becoming increasingly demanding. Nevertheless I’m still convinced of the company and its massive long-term growth potential, which is why I only sold about 8% of my position. 4️⃣ Macro situation ➢ Otherwise, I don’t plan on making any further sales this month. I don’t think it’s useful to try to time or predict macro events like the Iran war. I almost completely stayed away from X over the weekend to avoid being influenced by all the doom-talk. ➢ Although I definitely see the situation as tense and agree that the conflict should not be taken lightly, de-escalation signals from the US are clearly increasing. So I personally don’t expect a months-long conflict, but as I said - I cannot and do not want to make any concrete predictions, as the situation is very dynamic. Markets will likely remain volatile, but I feel well-positioned for the current phase with my portfolio. ➢ As is well known, annual stock returns are often generated on just a few days of significant gains. This could be, for example, a day when a peace agreemen (temporary or permanent) is reached between the conflicting parties. That is why I believe market timing is more or less senseless in the current situation.



