The Boston View

The Hormuz blockade strategy is from 40 years ago. It only made sense back when it actually hurt the USA. Now that we have cheap shale oil, the strategy is obsolete because Iran blockading the rest of the world's oil doesn't actually hurt the USA.

Trump put goes kaput

When the public's disapproval of a war after just 4 weeks reaches the same levels of disgust that took several years to form during the Iraq war, then you need to stop thinking of the 2026 mid-terms as "voters will make their minds up in 6 months." No. The midterms are now.

My guess as to how this proceeds: Trump walks away, "Mission Accomplished", leaves Strait as a problem for ROW. Iran tolls it, arguing the toll funds are needed to rebuild the country. But they are generous w/ deals and avoid tolling it to a point that provokes crisis or outrage.

U.S. Vice President Vance: We have achieved the majority of our military objectives in Iran, and it can be said that all of these objectives have been achieved.

The view from Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok: “Markets are overreacting to what will likely be a 4- to 6-week period of volatility, which will ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics.”

When the public's disapproval of a war after just 4 weeks reaches the same levels of disgust that took several years to form during the Iraq war, then you need to stop thinking of the 2026 mid-terms as "voters will make their minds up in 6 months." No. The midterms are now.