The Boston View
7.8K posts
The Boston View
@TheBostonView
Made in Massachusetts | “When it is dark enough, you can see the stars.”
Boston and Kennebunkport Katılım Kasım 2014
236 Takip Edilen2.5K Takipçiler
Long bonds like the new Fed chairman, copper and gold not so much.
English
The Boston View retweetledi
My one takeaway: initial focus is on direction of monetary policy in a Warsh Fed, BUT what we're really looking at is the end of the Fed's volatility dampening effect. Instead, CB policy is going to start amplifying vol through at least year end.
Guy LeBas@lebas_janney
Kevin Warsh steps up to the mic for the first time: 🧵 1/x
English
Warsh is a good communicator. That alone is helpful to the cause.
English
The Boston View retweetledi
I'm seeing a lot of panic around the pullback of GPU rental rates (specifically H100s).
Reminder that rental rates for old GPUs should decline over time.
In general, the rental decline rates have been much shallower than assumed when modeling DC IRRs.
English
The Boston View retweetledi
Fam, be extremely cautious with $SMH options flow if flow is part of your methodology.
We’ve been actively trading it for well over a year. There have been multiple instances where the flow and price action felt designed to get everyone to zig while they zag.
Strikes are often not targets so do your own work on levels and risk management in this volatile product.
Remember how bearish the scanners were last week? Directionally they weren’t wrong for a moment, but the move wasn’t nearly as clean or aggressive as the flow implied.
In fact it seemed the positioning helped achieve the June 650 target I'd given here several weeks months ago!
English
The Boston View retweetledi
$MU, we were significantly above consensus for next two qtrs. As the previews are rolling in, nice to see street coming in close to ours. It also appears my FY28 numbers are conservative, so we will have to do something about it. FYI. DB raised MU PT to $1,500 from $1,000. We still do not see $160 in EPS due to Flash prices correcting in 2027-28. But I guess with contracts in place, anything is possible.
NO Financial Advice. Please do your DD and do not trade on this info.
Research & Invest@R_and_Invest
$MU Updated after estimated AI DC DRAM demand.
English
The Boston View retweetledi
Deutsche Bank raised its PT from $1,000 to $1,500 and now expects Micron to report above the high end of guidance, driven by both higher pricing and higher bit shipments across DRAM and NAND.
What’s notable is that DB no longer sees HBM as the only story. They argue traditional DRAM, LPDDR and NAND are all benefiting from increasingly memory-intensive AI workloads, keeping supply-demand dynamics tight despite multiple capacity expansion announcements across the industry.
DB now models gross margins staying above 80% and believes DRAM demand will continue to outpace supply well into 2027 and potentially 2028.
The key debate heading into earnings may be around Micron’s new Strategic Customer Agreements. Investors will be looking for signs that long-term contracts are improving visibility and making this cycle structurally different from past memory cycles.
$MU
Knockouttrader@knockouttrader
RBC raises its $MU PT from $525 to $1.200 and is pretty optimistic until at least late 2027. The current DRAM upcycle isn’t close to finished. In fact, they think it has another 5-6 quarters to run, according to RBC who is getting even more bullish on the memory cycle. What’s driving the PT hike isn’t just HBM. RBC sees pricing and volume moving higher simultaneously across DRAM and NAND, supported by muted supply growth, strong AI demand, and increasingly larger memory requirements from inference and agentic AI workloads. (++) DRAM contract prices tracking ~50% q/q growth in Q2 (++) Industry supply growth expected to remain constrained into late 2027 (++) Agentic AI seen as a structural memory tailwind, requiring larger context windows and more storage content (++) Micron’s 1-gamma yields appear ahead of schedule (+) Strategic customer agreements could improve pricing visibility through the cycle RBC argues HBM changes the economics of the memory business. Today HBM is only ~10-15% of DRAM revenue, but as that mix grows, memory earnings become less exposed to traditional commodity pricing swings and deserve a structurally higher valuation multiple.
English
The Boston View retweetledi
@lokoyacap It's almost like
Demand is exploding
And supply is tight...
English
I show great deference to the learning curve, and have watched many either impossible or unaffordable things over the decades eventually work out.
But I just can't see, at this juncture, how $SPCX is going to get space compute to scale anytime soon.
English
In this most recent failure of the oil analysts, we also learned that if you append a funny meme to every one of your tweets, this does not, in the aggregate, raise the quality of one's forecasting.
Under the Sunshine@UndertheSunshi4
@PauloMacro Oil bulls and barrel counters lose. Again. For the xxth time in the past couple of years. When will they learn that their counting and models are useless for price prediction when the data & behavior of the most important player (China) cannot be modeled? Probably never...
English
Robin you have long specialized in needlessly obtuse takes, and this one is a doozy.
China built up its oil reserves to over 1.4 billion bbls, with the intent to protect itself in a geo-pol crisis, and released it. That took a lot of foresight, planning, capital over years.
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks
@GavinSBaker China's reserve drawdown is a huge red herring. It's imports from the Gulf fell because the Strait of Hormuz was closed and Iran got blockaded. Other countries in Asia saw much bigger falls in imports from the Gulf, so China got off lightly. They didn't do anything to cap prices.
English
@EllisWyatt1971 @allenanalysis Hi Ryan. I am curious: how does it help you to firmly believe something for which there is no evidence. Not a single person is in possession of evidence that 2020 was rigged. Indeed, it's been thoroughly run through the judicial system. How does this help you?
English
@allenanalysis it's just a dumb and irrelevant question. yes, it was rigged but why does that even matter for whatever position this guy is going to take?
English
🚨 Tim Kaine Just Put Trump’s Nominee In A Brutal Box.
KAINE: “Was the 2020 election rigged?”
HAL DUNCAN: “President Trump won the 2024 election.”
KAINE asked again.
Duncan still wouldn’t answer.
Then came Kaine’s response:
“How about that? He was asked twice if the 2020 election was rigged, and he wouldn’t answer the question. You’re afraid of making an insecure president mad.”
English
@DoomerTard Well, one can always play around with the baseline, as you are doing here, by using the Iran-war low as your start point. On the matter of $DIA's outlook however, I would advise against framing it that way.
English
@TheBostonView Bro dia is up 72 points in 12 weeks. A bit extended, no?
English
Feels like it could be a good if not a great couple of weeks ahead for industrials. $EXI $DIA $XLI
English
The Boston View retweetledi
$DJIA The breakout that no one cares about continues to extend.
English
The memory sector hit new ATH the past 48 hours, and you wonder that the caution settles in, as we head into $MU earnings a week from tomorrow. $DRAM
English
