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Toby MG
9.9K posts
Toby MG
@TobyMGData
Politics obsessed Wisconsinite, digging into the data. A progressive, punster patriot defeating bad guys in 17 of the last 21 statewide elections. he/him
参加日 Nisan 2022
1K フォロー中3.3K フォロワー
On the Democratic side, this tells us next to nothing. On the Republican side, Tiffany has some evidence of issues with recognition or base support, but we can only read so much out of numbers like these. And (sorry @DanRShafer ) it’s even worse to look at crosstabs, dealing
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The SCOWIS poll from @MULawPoll wasn’t super helpful but there were a few things you could read from it. The primary polls were even less informative. Getting away from the percentages, these are the actual number of raw responses the candidates got.
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@MULawPoll Further proof that MAGA has zero principles beyond a devotion to whatever Trump is doing that day
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88% of Republicans who have a favorable view of MAGA support Iran attacks. 28% of Republicans who have an unfavorable view of MAGA support the attacks. #mulawpoll
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A poll with that many undecideds two weeks out isn’t particularly useful, since it’s clearly not modeled for a likely electorate, but all the warning signs are flashing for Lazar-
Low enthusiasm, losing independents, voters don’t like her and it’s getting worse.
MULawPoll@MULawPoll
A final measure of engagement is those saying the outcome of the Supreme Court election is very important to them. Among Democrats, 65% say it is very important, while 46% of Republicans and 24% of independents say the same. #mulawpoll
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@politica1_news Yes and almost 24% of all votes coming from there so far
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@TobyMGData Ah - Dane still putting up an insane >20% return rate
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While we wait for the absentee numbers to post, the reasons so interested in today in particular:
15 Days Out:
2023: 8,483 returns (2.81%)
2025: 10,149 returns (3.08%)
2026: 14,544 returns (5.83%)
14 Days Out:
2023: 31,273 returns (10.20%)
2025: 35,679 returns (10.39%)
2026: ???
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Also keep in mind that, for whatever reason, the City of Milwaukee ALWAYS lags in reporting returns in the first stretch- there are currently only 24 returns reported from The City of Milwaukee and the County is in 4th place with only 1,960- compared to 7,431 out of Dane already
Toby MG@TobyMGData
And there it is! About 16.7k ballots reported returned yesterday, bringing this morning’s total to 31,207 returns (12.22%) So today’s can equalizer after a faster start to returns- just hair behind 2023 in raw returns but a higher rate because of fewer requests
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@politica1_news I imagine a huge part of it is that the spending and therefore attention is a fraction of what it was those years. There aren’t fifteen commercials every hour on every channel and streaming platform about the race.
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@TobyMGData Not as big of a jump, but still solid.
I don't know why the requests themselves have dropped quite significantly though.
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And there it is!
About 16.7k ballots reported returned yesterday, bringing this morning’s total to
31,207 returns (12.22%)
So today’s can equalizer after a faster start to returns- just hair behind 2023 in raw returns but a higher rate because of fewer requests
Toby MG@TobyMGData
While we wait for the absentee numbers to post, the reasons so interested in today in particular: 15 Days Out: 2023: 8,483 returns (2.81%) 2025: 10,149 returns (3.08%) 2026: 14,544 returns (5.83%) 14 Days Out: 2023: 31,273 returns (10.20%) 2025: 35,679 returns (10.39%) 2026: ???
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@ItsChickGinger @NorthChria @kid_riles The founders said our country is not in any sense founded on the Christian religion
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@TobyMGData @NorthChria @kid_riles Who are the founders? What did they believe? What did they put into our founding documents? Why do we have our rights?
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Anyone who wants to insert their personal sky-daddy into politics is unqualified for office.
Vote Chris Taylor for a seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court.
Judge Maria Lazar@JudgeMariaLazar
Religious freedom isn’t a privilege granted by the government — it’s a right guaranteed by God and protected by our Constitution. I will defend that right in every case that comes before me. No exceptions. No apologies.
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@TobyMGData @NorthChria @kid_riles "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."
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@NorthChria @kid_riles The United States is not in any sense founded on the Christian religion
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@kid_riles The founders quite literally built this nation upon their "sky daddy" principles. States even had attestation of faith in their doctrines. So the freedom you have to say that comes inherently from their belief in the resurrected Christ, redeeming humanity.
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@DylanLeigh03 @yvonnewingett @russellberman This. It’s not meant to pass. It’s meant to continue to manipulate people
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@yvonnewingett @russellberman Because then in November when MAGA loses lots of seats, Trump can lie and whine that it would not happened if SAVE America Act had passed and his cult will believe him. Gives him ammunition for 2028.
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Some Republican secretaries of state view the SAVE America Act as an unserious attempt to create policy, election experts who have spoken with them told @russellberman and me. theatlantic.com/politics/2026/…
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@LynnFreedom68 @RickEsenberg @StephenScaffid1 Unfortunately, he is. And America is weaker, poorer, and suffering as a result. Elect a traitor and the country goes down the tubes
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@TobyMGData @RickEsenberg @StephenScaffid1 But yet he's your president again, even though your feelings aren't facts!
GIF
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One of the odd thing about the folks trying to excuse Trump's comments is that they have completely fabricated what Mueller did. You can criticize how he handled the investigation (which he did not start) but, in the end, he did not find wrongdoing by Trump. Somehow this has transmogrified into "a coup." I guess we're all snowflakes now.
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@LynnFreedom68 @RickEsenberg @StephenScaffid1 He was not charged with obstruction because Mueller believed it was not possible to indict a sitting president.
The investigation proved Russian interference and Trump campaign communication with Russia but not a criminal conspiracy.
Plenty of wrongdoing, no exoneration
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@LynnFreedom68 @RickEsenberg @StephenScaffid1 Obstruction of justice and consistent communication with Russia while they were interfering in the ejection on his behalf. The Mueller report laid out a clear case for impeachment and removal, and absolutely did not exonerate Trump.
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