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Toby MG
9.9K posts
Toby MG
@TobyMGData
Politics obsessed Wisconsinite, digging into the data. A progressive, punster patriot defeating bad guys in 17 of the last 21 statewide elections. he/him
Katılım Nisan 2022
1K Takip Edilen3.2K Takipçiler
@NorthChria @kid_riles The United States is not in any sense founded on the Christian religion
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@kid_riles The founders quite literally built this nation upon their "sky daddy" principles. States even had attestation of faith in their doctrines. So the freedom you have to say that comes inherently from their belief in the resurrected Christ, redeeming humanity.
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Anyone who wants to insert their personal sky-daddy into politics is unqualified for office.
Vote Chris Taylor for a seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court.
Judge Maria Lazar@JudgeMariaLazar
Religious freedom isn’t a privilege granted by the government — it’s a right guaranteed by God and protected by our Constitution. I will defend that right in every case that comes before me. No exceptions. No apologies.
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@DylanLeigh03 @yvonnewingett @russellberman This. It’s not meant to pass. It’s meant to continue to manipulate people
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@yvonnewingett @russellberman Because then in November when MAGA loses lots of seats, Trump can lie and whine that it would not happened if SAVE America Act had passed and his cult will believe him. Gives him ammunition for 2028.
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Some Republican secretaries of state view the SAVE America Act as an unserious attempt to create policy, election experts who have spoken with them told @russellberman and me. theatlantic.com/politics/2026/…
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@LynnFreedom68 @RickEsenberg @StephenScaffid1 Unfortunately, he is. And America is weaker, poorer, and suffering as a result. Elect a traitor and the country goes down the tubes
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@TobyMGData @RickEsenberg @StephenScaffid1 But yet he's your president again, even though your feelings aren't facts!
GIF
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One of the odd thing about the folks trying to excuse Trump's comments is that they have completely fabricated what Mueller did. You can criticize how he handled the investigation (which he did not start) but, in the end, he did not find wrongdoing by Trump. Somehow this has transmogrified into "a coup." I guess we're all snowflakes now.
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@LynnFreedom68 @RickEsenberg @StephenScaffid1 He was not charged with obstruction because Mueller believed it was not possible to indict a sitting president.
The investigation proved Russian interference and Trump campaign communication with Russia but not a criminal conspiracy.
Plenty of wrongdoing, no exoneration
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@LynnFreedom68 @RickEsenberg @StephenScaffid1 Obstruction of justice and consistent communication with Russia while they were interfering in the ejection on his behalf. The Mueller report laid out a clear case for impeachment and removal, and absolutely did not exonerate Trump.
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@SunBeltPolitics "There was no fraud in the 2020 election." - @repvos
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Wisconsin discourse is always fun on this site
Before 2022, we all talked about how Wisconsin was certain to become an R-leaning state. Then 2022 happened.
2023 happened, and Wisconsin was supposedly a D-leaning state. Then Trump won it.
Wisconsin is stuck in tilts.
Pennsylvania/Philadelphia Supremacist🇺🇸🇺🇦🇬🇱@PA_Supremacist
My Mom asked me yesterday “Is Wisconsin becoming a Lean D/Likely D state like Minnesota?” I’m skeptical and feel that’s too optimistic, but it was the most liberal swing state in 2024, these fundraising numbers are insane, and it feels like the Wisconsin GOP is just giving up
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@CraigCrisostom1 @PokiJaciii If Lazar and one other conservative loses, the Republicans will not be able to gerrymander the state in 2031 even if they have a trifecta
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@PokiJaciii Not just that. The WIGOP will be effectively handicapped at a legislative level all the way into the next decade. x.com/TobyMGData/sta…
Toby MG@TobyMGData
@CraigCrisostom1 @StatisticUrban If we win this year and next year, the majority is a lock through 2033- and that means they’d have to flip 2028, hold 2029, flip 2030 AND flip 2033 to get it back- a four win streak. It is wild that they seem to be abandoning Lazar and Ziegler stabbed her in the back
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So every Wisconsin Supreme Court race is just Safe D now?💀
Devin Remiker@devinremikerwi
Wisconsin State Party Feb Fundraising Total Receipts 🔵 WisDems: $1,515,042 🔴 WisGOP: $167,242 Total w/o Non-Federal Transfers 🔵 WisDems: $525,846 🔴 WisGOP: $83,316 Last fed filing ahead of the 4/7 WI Supreme Court election. Next state filing due on 3/30.
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@CraigCrisostom1 @StatisticUrban The big factor in 2028 is the presidential primary, though. That’s what makes that one unpredictable. 2016 was the last time it was seriously contested on both sides and the SCOWIS numbers tracked pretty well with the primary partisan breakdown
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@TobyMGData @StatisticUrban It's possible that the four-year win streak can happen. BUT that's dependent on the Democrats collapsing in popularity with high-propensity voters before the 2028 election, which isn't likely right now given the direction of Trump 2.0. So as of now, 2028 looks like a Dem hold. 1/
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It hasn't received much attention, but WI has a Supreme Court election on April 7th.
The only poll has the Democrat leading by 7pts. Markets have Dem odds at 95%. A D win here would lock in a 5D-2R WI court until at least 2030.
The WI GOP appears to have given up?
Devin Remiker@devinremikerwi
Wisconsin State Party Feb Fundraising Total Receipts 🔵 WisDems: $1,515,042 🔴 WisGOP: $167,242 Total w/o Non-Federal Transfers 🔵 WisDems: $525,846 🔴 WisGOP: $83,316 Last fed filing ahead of the 4/7 WI Supreme Court election. Next state filing due on 3/30.
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@CraigCrisostom1 @StatisticUrban Win 2? 2033. Win 3? 2035 and we’re already talking about Susan Crawford’s seat. They’ve drawn themselves into quite a corner here
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@CraigCrisostom1 @StatisticUrban Yes. When people say “a majority through at least xxxx” it kind of implies a flip is likely at that point but it actually requires a complete reversal of the dynamics of these elections spanning several years to happen. Of the races before 2033, if progressives win 1, 2030
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I wonder if he has any idea of the celebrations that will happen and things normal, decent people will say about him when it happens.
Our “president” is the scum of the earth
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
Trump: “Robert Mueller just died. Good, I’m glad he’s dead. He can no longer hurt innocent people! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
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@CraigCrisostom1 @StatisticUrban If we win this year and next year, the majority is a lock through 2033- and that means they’d have to flip 2028, hold 2029, flip 2030 AND flip 2033 to get it back- a four win streak.
It is wild that they seem to be abandoning Lazar and Ziegler stabbed her in the back
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@StatisticUrban Another wild thing to note: next year, we'll have ANOTHER WISC election to replace the retiring conservative justice.
So there's a chance that we could be looking at a 6D-1R court by next year until 2030.
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@TheScottKelly @Newsweek @AOL @MollyBeck @jessieopie @mattsmith_news @tmj4 @schmidtmitchell @sbauerAP @trichmond1 @JasonCalvi @AJBayatpour x.com/sbauerap/statu…
Scott Bauer@sbauerAP
Trump posted on social media about Mueller’s death: “Robert Mueller just died. Good, I’m glad he’s dead.” The Republican president added, “He can no longer hurt innocent people!”
QME
2.1 MILLION people views in 25 hours.
@Newsweek covered it. @AOL covered it.
Wisconsin media - @mollybeck @jessieopie @mattsmith_news @tmj4 @schmidtmitchell @sbauerAP @trichmond1 @JasonCalvi @AJBayatpour
If a Republican had done something this insensitive, you'd cover it
Van Wanggaard@Vanwanggaard
It's been 48 hours. I decide to retire to be with my family after 3 siblings died, daughter has Stage 4 cancer, and another brother had a heart attack + more It shows that Democrats don't care about people, only power. @SenHesselbein should tell her team to take it down.
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@krakowianin91 @electionsjoe Tuesday is the earliest it can start and most places will begin then
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@electionsjoe When does early voting start for Supreme Court elections?
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@TomGrothJr @ShawnFetta The one repeating debunked conspiracy theories pushed by propagandists is whining about “talking points”
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@TobyMGData @ShawnFetta There is ZERO harm in 100% election integrity. Races are determined by a few thousand votes & candidates spend $100’s of millions to get elected. The harm is ballot harvesting and even the thought of election impropriety. Keep reading the main stream medias talking points.
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Elections have consequences.
upnorthnewswi.com/2026/03/17/ano…
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@TomGrothJr @ShawnFetta Requiring proof of citizenship would stop approximately zero illegitimate votes but could potentially disenfranchise many legal voters. The harm far outweighs the benefit.
Thankfully it cannot pass, and was never intended to. It’s just to drum up fear and anger in dumb people
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@TomGrothJr @ShawnFetta Real except you still have zero evidence, you just claim it happens despite all of the proof that it is vanishingly rare, and never coordinated at any level.
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@TomGrothJr @ShawnFetta You really think people are risking years in prison and thousands in fines for a single vote? Is that a belief that actually lives in the head of real people? Are they that easily manipulated by propaganda?
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@TobyMGData @ShawnFetta You need a utility bill & drivers license to vote. Meanwhile, states are handing out drivers licenses to illegal aliens like candy at a parade. So there is NO WAY to confirm if the registered voter is a citizen - just that they are registered to vote.
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@ShawnFetta So let’s not pretend both sides haven’t created favorable election district maps (aka. Gerrymandering) while they had control of the state. Can we confirm that everyone that votes in those elections is a citizen of the US?
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