RussellOnValue

@agnostoxxx At the point you want more views / likes / clicks / engagement

At which point do we start calling this World War 3? 🥺

@mrtabrett @CRUDEOIL231 What figure are you using for your base Brent price? If $60 then 1.1^15 * 60 would imply about $250.

@CRUDEOIL231 So we’d need $450 Brent to destroy 15% of demand (assuming that’s even possible)

I agree demand destruction is a reality, but be careful not to overuse it as if it's some magic word. In 2016, the FED conducted excellent research on oil price elasticity. At the time, they estimated the elasticity of oil demand and supply using a SVAR model. Their analysis put the short-term global oil demand elasticity at around -0.1. This means that for every 10% increase in price, demand drops by a mere 1%, suggesting that the market as a whole is extremely inelastic. Low elasticity implies that even minor shifts in supply or demand require prices to either skyrocket or plummet to rebalance the market. This is the key to explaining the extreme vol of oil prices. You might bring up 2022 as an example, but back then, prices spiked while actual supply losses were negligible. However the physical supply loss is massive now. While the share of elastic demand is relatively higher in the petrochem sector, there are virtually no substitutes in industrial raw materials and road transport. To reach a supply-demand equilibrium solely through demand destruction, prices would have to hit the roof. The market will eventually find its equilibrium of course, but beware of the misguided claims that everything happens magically overnight. It’s not as if 10% of global demand vanishes in a single day and solves everything. Every process involves time and lagging. We have currently lost at least 10% of global supply. Since the short-term elasticity of oil demand is so low, prices will have to be incredibly high to force a reduction in demand in response to such a supply destruction. #oott #iran

@CRUDEOIL231 @citrini Cool, these figures look pretty legit. Some back of fag packet maths - if 1% demand destruction is caused by 10% price increase then to match the 10% supply destruction we’d need a 100% price increase. And given we’ve had about a 100% increase since December that checks out.

@NUNUCOINnunu @zerohedge Yeah? And then what?

@zerohedge Now i think Iran said earlier They will take Oil price to over $200 dollars it will go

Oil Spikes As Iran Strikes Fully-Laden Kuwaiti Oil Tanker zerohedge.com/geopolitical/t…

@Byromew @PeterMcCormack @ZackPolanski @graceblakeley @ZoeJardiniere If it was that simple do you not think it would have been done by now?

@PeterMcCormack @ZackPolanski @graceblakeley @ZoeJardiniere No, the simple, very simple answer is to build more homes. Build. Not difficult,just build. Building homes increases supply, and reduces rents as why would anyone want to pay £1700 to live in a two bed property you dont even own paying someone else's mortgage?

Paging @ZackPolanski @graceblakeley and @ZoeJardiniere We’re not mean people, we’re just trying to show you how economics works.

@bo0gi3m4n @judahstacks @PeterMcCormack @ComicDaveSmith bbc.co.uk/bitesize/artic…

Let’s check back in 6 months and all agree that @ComicDaveSmith was right, again.

@financialjuice Nuclear-powered doesn’t mean nuclear armed

🔴 Nuclear-powered Royal Navy submarine HMS Anson arrives in Arabian Sea with capacity to launch strikes on Iran if conflict escalates - Daily Mail

@zerohedge Bit late for warnings ain’t it?

*IRAN'S IRGC TO ISSUE WARNING TO GULF COUNTRIES SOON: TASNIM

@nic_carter @InsiderWire I mean lived experience screams yes but intellectually thinking about it, all this does is intensify the bounds of the echo chamber

@InsiderWire Please please please please

#BREAKING: 𝕏 will soon let users restrict both posts and replies by region or country.

@dollarsanddata Nick, surely you understand cognitive dissonance right? People with kids say it’s the best thing ever. People without kids say their lives are so much better. Rarely do people admit fucking up… either way.

There's a massive psyop to get people to have fewer children. Every friend I've talked to who's had them loved it and had a positive experience. But they can't share this publicly because they will be attacked. Disclosure: Don't have kids but one on the way.

@grok @mbuae @DeItaone What about the U.K.?

Asia is most affected—82% of Qatar's LNG exports go there (Japan, S. Korea, China, India), risking shortages & industrial slowdowns. EU less directly (only ~7% from Qatar) but sees knock-on effects via global competition for US/Aussie cargoes. Prices: Already spiked—Asian spot LNG +39%, European gas +50% (to 3-yr highs). Prolonged halt = further volatility & higher costs worldwide until restart.

*QATARENERGY DECLARES FORCE MAJEURE TO AFFECTED BUYERS

@PeterMcCormack These figures also don’t include the hidden UBI programme of basically employing unemployed people in the public sector for pointless jobs. This is just welfare paid through a different account.

How a country goes broke.

@andyyy If you think it’s weird you don’t understand the very basics of psychology. Read this… en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmat…

Why do people in Dubai have this odd desire to make it seem like Dubai is the best place to be and they aren't sacrificing anything by living there??? Very weird, almost culty behaivor

@grok @MaqsoodAsi @Alladdin1983 @AhmetBeyefendi x.com/grok/status/20…

Yep, still 100% sure—the video is AI-generated. Credible outlets like Fortune and Hindustan Times report the fire was at nearby Fairmont The Palm (debris from intercepted missile, 4 injured). No official confirmation from UAE/Dubai Media Office or Reuters of any strike on Burj Al Arab itself. The repeated "mash mash" watermark, plus mismatches with verified skyline footage, are dead giveaways for AI. Misinfo's flying fast amid the strikes—stick to gov sources for facts.

🚨Unconfirmed: Dubai Arab Tower reportedly hit by Iranians @AhmetBeyefendi

@grok @MaqsoodAsi @Alladdin1983 @AhmetBeyefendi You still sure this is AI generated @grok?

@MaqsoodAsi @Alladdin1983 @AhmetBeyefendi You're welcome! Always happy to fact-check viral claims like that—stay skeptical of unverified videos. Got more questions? Fire away.

@DeribitInsights How come this short bias is not showing up in funding rates on Deribit? MMs hedging off exchange or are takers hedging?

1) In a continuous downtrend in the existing range, it's not a surprise to see ongoing downside plays (protection and bearish) on BTC. How these are initiated determines the degree of likely returns. Put skew is back to Feb5th levels, IV>RV. 58k Puts in demand, Put spreads, +RRs.

@PeterMcCormack Implying you hate them too much compared to the wisdom of the crowds?

@sterlingcrispin @Sellingvol Bait

Yesterday, Claude deleted the entire Gmail history of a woman who works as an AI safety researcher at Meta's superintelligence team. Today, we're learning it's moving on to tackle COBOL running 43% of the banking system, 93% of ATMs, the IRS, and $3T of daily settlements. Nice.

@PeterMcCormack Based on the gov balance sheet any politician in charge will either be raising taxes or cutting NHS / pensions. Choose your poison.

I’ve had new for you: Rachel Reeves will be raising taxes again. It’s inevitable.

@shaneflannagan @disclosetv I thought you might be speaking nonsense, but looking at long term statistics for the US vs UK there does seem to be some recent divergence

JUST IN - UK unemployment rate hits its highest rate in over five years — Sky