Conor Maguire | Value Situations

Latest Value Sits idea just published - Chemical Warfare - A unique and out-of-favour chemicals producer with multibagger upside potential. valuesits.substack.com/p/chemical-war…

@FreightAlley @malinvested Very interesting. Any idea which types of chemicals are in demand and driving current shipment activity?

@malinvested Chemical shipments were at the highest levels in February, until March. This was well before Hormuz.

Why isn’t anyone talking about this? The railroads, the backbone of American industrials, just reported that volume excluding coal, had the highest volume March since 2008! Chemicals +5.5% YoY - highest ever Grains - highest volume since 1993! There is so much noise in the economy, but the signal says that American industry is doing fantastic.

@calvinfroedge The 1970s (and 2022) remains the most relevant analog to the current predicament

We have the biggest disruption in the two most basic inputs to our civilization in history - energy and fertilizers - and mainstream finance is still talking about tech. Prices of everything from food and gas to air travel, paint, and building materials are about to skyrocket.

@calvinfroedge And real estate also

Best performers in the 70s were oil, precious metals, and chemicals Study the 1970s as your blueprint for trading the next few years

@puppyeh1 Nice work Jeremy, congrats and all the best for 2026

Signing off for the year…Another blessed year🙏 stopping the blog allowed the freedom of imagination and clarity of thought to pursue a no of highly profitable trades, free and clear. Closing in on 200x lifetime returns, about a 55% CAGR over 12yrs…

@JavierBlas what do you think the reason for this is?

CHART OF THE DAY: It's one of the most interesting features of the energy market in 2025 -- a massive split in performance between Big Oil and Crude Oil. Big Oil (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP and TTE) is up ~5%-20% year-to-date, while Brent is down ~18% over the same period.

@michaeljburry @FTAlphaville Feels like renewed #inflation risk is rising?

So the Fed is now buying Treasuries again. $40 billion of bills a month...@FTAlphaville covers it well. And with a sense of humor - Sure John LOL. And we have a "new" acronym to learn RMPs - Reserve Management Purchases. The last line of the article is notable. “However, given the stubbornness of the recent repo market volatility, Alphaville would be surprised if the Fed doesn’t unveil a dose of “temporary open market operations” before then — just to make sure Christmas isn’t ruined by an end of year funding crunch shitshow.” I would add that if the US Banking system can’t function without $3+ trillion in reserves/life support from the Fed, that is not a sign of strength but a sign of fragility. It was $2.2 trillion pre-2023 banking crisis. The temporary BTFP support became load-bearing. In 2007 it was $45 Billion with a B. That reserve level might grow with the economy, but the economy sure isn’t doing that well. So I’d say US Banks are getting weaker way too fast. Seems that after every crisis now the Fed needs to expand its balance sheet permanently or guarantee a bank funding crisis. No wonder stocks are doing well. On CNBC you’ll hear recommendations to buy bank stocks because they are so overcapitalized and the economy is improving, but I don’t. In general, for amounts over the $250K FDIC limit, I keep cash in Treasury Money Market Funds. The practical limit of this might be full nationalization of the US bond market - the Fed owns all $40 trillion US debt. So party on, I guess. Bonus if you caught this too - the US Treasury has been tilting its sales toward short-term Bills to avoid driving 10 year rates up. So the Fed's focus on buying Bills is awfully convenient. The Fed and the US Treasury sittin' in a tree K I S S... RIP QT; long live ‘reserve management purchases’ giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac… via @FinancialTimes

Available today, author Michael Lewis (Liars Poker, Moneyball, etc.j interviews me for his podcast Against the Rules. Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube and others pushkin.fm/podcasts/again…

@michaeljburry Welcome back Dr. Burry. Looking forward to reading.

Excellent discussion, recommended listening - always great insights from the Seawolf team

@VD718 Should be a great discussion, perfect listening for the end of the week!

Looking forward to this! Haven't seen Michael live in ages.

Another bullish development for #uranium ... EU entitled to include gas and nuclear energy in its green rulebook allowing the technologies to tap subsidies and cheaper finance, the bloc’s second highest tribunal ruled cc: @Seawolfcap @VD718 @dmoses34 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@cilantrotime Why would I do that ?

Update on Value Situations Further to my update to subscribers today, I am excited to announce that I am joining a fundamental equity hedge fund off the back of writing Value Situations. As such, the newsletter is going on hiatus indefinitely and I will not be publishing any ideas for the foreseeable future. Thank you to all readers and subscribers for your support, encouragement, engagement and messages over the years, it has been a labour of love writing Value Situations and sharing my ideas. I’m also grateful for the incredible network of friends and fellow investors that the newsletter has allowed me to build. I’ll still maintain a presence here on X, and hope to stay in touch with many of you, but for obvious compliance reasons going forward I will not be posting about stocks. Best, Conor.

@lookdownnotup Thank you!

@ValueSituations Hey well done! All the best in your new job.

@orrdavid Thank you! 🙏

@ValueSituations Congrats!

@BrownMarubozu Fundamental value / special sits ideas

@ValueSituations Congrats Conor! What types of ideas will you be considering?

@joshyoung Thanks Josh ! Hope all well with you

@ValueSituations Congrats!

@marketplunger1 Thanks Brandon, and thanks for your support for the Value Sits newsletter over the years! 🙏

I LOVE seeing stories like this on here. It’s what it’s all about. Conor got a HF job from writing and publishing his ideas online. We are still so early in the utility of writing online. Well done, Conor! Much deserved!

@stoneval_cp Thank you 🙏

@ValueSituations Great! Wish you many exciting challenges and, of course, successful theses and trades.

@agnostoxxx Thanks Shrub ! I'm grateful that the newsletter and fintwit allowed us to connect also my friend !

@ValueSituations Congrats bud!!! Well deserved and I'm glad "smart money" noticed your great work!!! All the best!

@twebs Thanks Twebs!

@ValueSituations Congrats! 🍾🥂