@gummibear737 @AstorAaron Why does Iran need the GCC to threaten an embargo before opening the strait? Isn't the whole point of closing the strait to blockade GCC exports?
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Warren Porter
15.1K posts
Warren Porter
@Warp_Reality
Microwave Observations of Earth @NASAgoddard @NOAAsatellites @JPSSprogram Sounder for Microwave Based Applications (SMBA) Near Earth Observation Network (NEON)
Berwyn Heights, MD 参加日 Kasım 2012
3.2K フォロー中290 フォロワー
@AstorAaron the same thing applies to the red sea
the gcc is saying that the world needs to enforce international law
iran is going to kick and scream but they’ve lost their leverage
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Trump is right when he says the Iran War is pretty much over, and it's because Iran has basically lost any and all leverage over the Strait of Hormuz (as well as its serious looming economic crisis)
There's a small (but bombshell) detail from the ceasefire negotiations in Islamabad that has been unreported by the MSM, but was just broken by @aimendean...and it means that the war is probably done. If you don't know who Aimen is, he's the most insightful and credible analyst of the Middle East I have found to date
He reports that this emerged at the negotiations this weekend and I quote:
"The Saudis stood up for the whole GCC against this (Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz). And in fact, they threatened the Iranians that doing so would mean that we (the entire GCC) are not going to export a single drop of oil or LNG, forever, as long as you are in control of this. So technically, it's the GCC telling the world and especially the European Union that we're going to impose an embargo on the rest of the world if the rest of the world is not going to enforce international law when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz"
So the GCC is ready to take 22% of global oil and LNG offline...and not just what transits the Strait of Hormuz, but all energy production. This means that Iran has basically lost all the leverage it ever had with regards to the Strait of Hormuz
This is why the US doesn't have to move a muscle to open the Strait and why Iran's rhetoric has become far softer in recent days. Nothing is guaranteed, but the Iranians have almost no cards at this point...which is why Trump is so confident that the Iran War is pretty much over
The Europeans could learn a thing or two from the GCC
podcasts.apple.com/be/podcast/ame…
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@robpgole @JewishWarrior13 Iran will probably try to export oil & gas through Azerbaijan, the Caspian and by rail to China. x.com/i/status/19334…
It's only going to replace a fraction of the capacity they had through their Southern seaports.
James E. Thorne@DrJStrategy
Iran and China new rail link. The new direct rail link between Iran and China officially opened on May 25, 2025, with the arrival of the first freight train from Xi’an, China, at the Aprin dry port near Tehran. This landmark corridor not only accelerates trade and strengthens the economic partnership between the two countries, but also provides a secure and efficient overland route for Iranian exports—especially oil—bypassing vulnerable maritime chokepoints. The significance of this connection is amplified by the fact that China is the destination for almost 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making Chinese refiners the main buyers of Iranian crude despite ongoing international sanctions. The new rail link is expected to further deepen this strategic energy relationship and reshape regional trade dynamics.
Berwyn Heights, MD 🇺🇸 English
@JewishWarrior13 Where are the ports? It seems like all oil flows through the same location- Persian Gulf, Straits of Hormuz and Gulf Oman which are all connected. The Caspian Sea is not realistic given the location of the oil fields.
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🚨 Report on an Iranian news channel: Iran will use alternative ports, instead of those located in southern Iran, to bypass the US blockade of Hormuz
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@eric_leibman @JewishWarrior13 Iran can replace 5% of its blockaded oil exports with railroad exports.
x.com/i/status/19334…
James E. Thorne@DrJStrategy
Iran and China new rail link. The new direct rail link between Iran and China officially opened on May 25, 2025, with the arrival of the first freight train from Xi’an, China, at the Aprin dry port near Tehran. This landmark corridor not only accelerates trade and strengthens the economic partnership between the two countries, but also provides a secure and efficient overland route for Iranian exports—especially oil—bypassing vulnerable maritime chokepoints. The significance of this connection is amplified by the fact that China is the destination for almost 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making Chinese refiners the main buyers of Iranian crude despite ongoing international sanctions. The new rail link is expected to further deepen this strategic energy relationship and reshape regional trade dynamics.
Berwyn Heights, MD 🇺🇸 English
@JewishWarrior13 How practical and realistic an option do you think that is for them?
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@gummibear737 Iran can replace about 5% of their maritime oil exports with railroad exports.
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Unless there's some secret pipeline that nobody knows about, there are no alternate trade routes that can handle the necessary volumes or be cost effective
Nice try, but this is propaganda for the dummies
Open Source Intel@Osint613
Iran says it has established alternate trade routes through Russia, Central Asia, and China, claiming any blockade will backfire and become "America's biggest regional mistake."
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Warren Porter がリツイート
A member of Congress admits that it was never about illegal crossers seeking asylum. It was about banning legal immigrants too
Rep. Mike Collins@RepMikeCollins
It was never about asylum, it was an invasion. America is not an economic zone to be plundered.
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@JDFilkins @Polymarket This just came across my feed. If true, it would be the first evidence that the blockade is more than just words.
x.com/HFI_Research/s…
HFI Research@HFI_Research
Both Elpis and Rich Starry have been stopped. It appears the US blockade is past the Jask terminal (Iran's alternative export terminal). We have not seen Iran load there yet, and we don't know if the blockade will be effective for that facility. Two tankers went through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours: MURLIKISHAN (IMO: 9269403) Asphalt/Bitumen Tanker PEACE GULF (IMO: 9304588) Oil/Chemical Tanker Source: @MarineTraffic
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@JDFilkins @Polymarket Sanctioned vessels transited the strait yesterday after the deadline and they were neither boarded nor seized.
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JUST IN: Iran reportedly may pause shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to respect the blockade & avoid jeopardizing U.S. talks.
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@JDFilkins @Polymarket The USN has not yet interdicted any sancioned vessels. It is unclear whether the US will back up its words with action. finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy…
Berwyn Heights, MD 🇺🇸 English
@Polymarket Pardon me, but does not the order "Blockade" imply that shipping is already paused? Isn't this like Iran promising to not cross that bridge anymore the day after you've blown he thin into the ravine?
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@mattbigos @JavierBlas Iran can still sell about 5% of its current oil exports overland via railroad. It's still a big shock, but it's better than going to zero.
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@JavierBlas Outside of Oil sales, does Iranian gov have any other meaningful sources of revenue?
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Looking at the limited empty oil tankers inside the Persian Gulf, plus Tehran’s onshore storage, Iran will need to shut in wells in 10-15 days (the same process its neighbours faced 5-6 weeks ago). Would that prompt Iran to change its negotiation approach? Unclear.
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@ThePanic16 @bonchieredstate I asked for your preferred semantics, not your preferred policies.
Berwyn Heights, MD 🇺🇸 English
@Warp_Reality @bonchieredstate I have no interest in your fines and penalties bullshit “Worn-out Warren. Deport them all. 10 deportation centers nationwide 24 C-130’e at each center, one filled with illegal aliens, 10 flights every hour, on the hour, non-stop for 6 years.
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It’s literally no deportations, work permits, and a pathway to citizenship.
What exactly do you think the word amnesty means?
Rep. María Elvira Salazar@RepMariaSalazar
READ. THE. BILL. BEFORE. YOU. OPEN. YOUR. MOUTH. Calling the DIGNITY Act “amnesty” isn’t just wrong. It’s a deliberate distortion and it exposes just how little you know about the bill. This is enforcement first: zero tolerance for criminals, permanent border security, and hard, earned requirements to step forward and face the law, so American workers are protected, not undercut. Amnesty is the chaos you’ve defended, millions in the shadows, no control, no accountability, and a system that stopped working a long time ago. No shortcuts. No giveaways. No blanket forgiveness. That’s law and order. That’s DIGNITY.
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Regarding Trump's threat/decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran, color me a skeptic.
1. Taking more oil off the market, particularly the only oil that is now getting out from the Persian Gulf, will drive oil prices further up, and the paper price of oil will get closer to the actual price, which should be around $150 per barrel. A dramatic increase in inflation in the US will ensue. Avoiding this is precisely why Trump was stuck in a position where he had no escalatory options out of this conflict before the ceasefire. He still doesn't.
2. Stopping tankers carrying Iranian oil wouldn't just be an escalation vis-à-vis Iran, but also against the countries that are buying Iranian oil, which includes China, India, and other Asian countries. I doubt Trump is ready for that escalation, particularly given the upcoming summit in Beijing.
3. This is also true for punishing countries that have negotiated a toll with Iran for the Straits. That includes Pakistan, which hosted the negotiations.
4. The naval blockade escalation will make the closing of the Red Sea more likely by the Houthis. That would take another 12% of global oil flow off the market. We would now be looking at oil around $200 per barrel.
There are nine or so days left of the ceasefire. Since neither side has explicitly stated that talks won't resume, or that the ceasefire is dead and over with, all these moves should be treated as tactics and threats within the negotiations.
It wouldn't be surprising if these threats are walked back soon (perhaps before markets open on Monday) and a new round is announced.
HOWEVER, there is a time for brinkmanship, and there is a time for serious negotiations.
If the US truly was insisting on zero enrichment in Islamabad, which was not Trump's red line at first but rather Israel's, then the next talks will be rendered a failure - just as the talks in May 2025 were killed by Trump shifting to the Israeli red line.
Still, I don't think that necessarily will lead to a return to war. A more likely scenario is a new non-negotiated status quo in which Tehran retains control over the Straits but doesn't get any sanctions relief, while the US pulls out of the war, and the question becomes whether Israel will continue the war on its own.
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@gummibear737 If Iran attacks a US navy vessel enforcing the blockade, it doesn't give the US any more cause to bomb Iranian power plants, with prejudice or otherwise.
Newington Forest, VA 🇺🇸 English
What Trump is basically doing is holding the ceasefire hostage and daring Iran to break it
If Iran does nothing then along w/blockade of Iranian ships they'll start escort convoys and dare Iran to do something
If Iran attacks, then Trump has cause to escalate with prejudice
U.S. Central Command@CENTCOM
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@Homerpezz @ScottPresler Threatening jail for purgery is enough deterrence for people. The risk/reward calculation is obvious enough. One vote that probably won't change an election's outcome isn't worth the risk of incarceration.
Newington Forest, VA 🇺🇸 English
@ScottPresler I keep trying to remind people: Some of our biggest states have NO CITIZENSHIP VERIFICATION AT ALL.
There's just a box saying, "I know that perjury is a crime."
This is not hurdle for illegals.
There are easily tens of millions of them registered and voting normally.
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Here’s how democrats have shifted the conversation:
“Illegal aliens can’t register to vote.”
“Illegal aliens aren’t registering to vote — it was a Driver’s License glitch.”
“Illegal aliens can’t vote.”
“The illegal aliens that voted were caught; so, the system is working.”
“There isn’t widespread illegal alien voting.”
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Warren Porter がリツイート
Bunch of people have asked so to answer directly: these Hormuz offset numbers are entirely bunk.
Absolutely fair to be optimistic about the war ending and Hormuz reopening, but it’s fundamentally flawed to say we’re offset the Hormuz supply loss and irresponsible to clam it’s not a serious ongoing crisis.
Bad estimates (the reality below)
🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute
(That’s total East -West pipeline capacity, already had 2-2.5 on the line so remaining “swing” from Gulf to Red Sea is 4.5-5.0 MMbpd)
📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus
(We did have a pre-war surplus, but it was closer to 2 MMbpd, and even that remains disputed—I was on the bearish side of the debate)
🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage
(There is no steady cleared safe passage)
🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute
(Again, this is the pipe capacity—swing is more like 0.5-0.7)
🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass
(This is silly, Jask never demonstrated that capacity but more fundamentally Iran Hormuz flows actually remain higher than that at 1.5+ MMbpd)
🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage
(There is no steady cleared safe passage)
In reality, we have ~13 MMbpd of upstream Gulf production offline, with no sustainable offset—SPRs, etc. are only a temporary help.
Today’s Trump blockade would raise that to more than 15 MMbpd.
James Bull@thejbullmarket
The myth of the Strait of Hormuz closure. 80% (16.25M bpd) of the 20M barrels per day supply of the Strait of Hormuz has already been replaced or been rerouted. 🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute 📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus 🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage 🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute 🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass 🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage Deficit? Only 3.8M bpd and even just 2 more tankers per day would reduce the deficit to 0. With 1.3B and 500 millions barrels in combined reserves for China & India respectively, they have a 3-4 month reserves before they run into a deficit. This is why stocks are back at nearly ATH again. Opening the Strait of Hormuz has now merely turned into an afterthought.
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@Libertybibbledy @bonchieredstate Amnesty traditional means all penalties are waived, which would exclude trading a penalty of removal for a restitution of 1000/yr for 7 years.
Newington Forest, VA 🇺🇸 English
@Warp_Reality @bonchieredstate Amnesty is staying. Everything else is noise
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@ThePanic16 @bonchieredstate Why do you think it is important to use the same word to describe changing the penalty from removal to a fine as the word we use for removing all penalties altogether?
Newington Forest, VA 🇺🇸 English
Warren Porter がリツイート
Three questions:
1) Would the US stop Chinese-flagged vessels going in-and-out the Persian Gulf? And if the tankers don’t stop?
2) What’s the plan if the Houthis of Yemen blockade the Bab al-Mandeb?
3) Would the U.S. stop Iranian tankers loading at Jask (outside the SoH)?
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Springfield, VA 🇺🇸 English
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"The Dignity Act" is way worse than anyone was aware.
Sec. 2303(d) says that anyone who claims they arrived before 2021 cannot be removed. Anyone can make the claim, automatic block by ICE to deport them for years.
All deportations come to a complete stop nationwide.
Rep. María Elvira Salazar@RepMariaSalazar
READ. THE. BILL. BEFORE. YOU. OPEN. YOUR. MOUTH. Calling the DIGNITY Act “amnesty” isn’t just wrong. It’s a deliberate distortion and it exposes just how little you know about the bill. This is enforcement first: zero tolerance for criminals, permanent border security, and hard, earned requirements to step forward and face the law, so American workers are protected, not undercut. Amnesty is the chaos you’ve defended, millions in the shadows, no control, no accountability, and a system that stopped working a long time ago. No shortcuts. No giveaways. No blanket forgiveness. That’s law and order. That’s DIGNITY.
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@Warp_Reality @akarlin It will be open to them when they need it, which they will, including KSA oil.
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The problem is that Iran's demands are absurdly maximalist:
* Permanent Hormuz tolls
* Reparations
* Unblock frozen assets
* No restrictions on uranium enrichment
* Ceasefire includes Lebanon
It's what you would only reasonably demand after a crushing military victory!
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@Nexxo00 @TrixToilet @ConserArmenians @RichardHanania Exactly, this ground invasion would be another strategic defeat for the USA.
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@Warp_Reality @TrixToilet @ConserArmenians @RichardHanania But for how long? Iran would make Afghanistan look like a summer picnic.
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I think Hormuz has broken Trump.
We always say he's inconsistent and changes his mind.
But this is different. I don't think he's ever been this all over the place on an issue in such a short period of time.
"OPEN HORMUZ OR YOUR CIVILIZATION DIES."
"We don't need Hormuz, it's Europe's problem."
"Oh actually, we're probably going to have a deal with the Iranians to run it together."
"It's great Hormuz is not open, we get to sell more oil!"
"Actually, Hormuz is open! The media is lying again."
When he's been inconsistent before, usually he cycles through different positions, at least showing some consistency for a short period of time. Here he's constantly saying contradictory things in the same breath, over and over again.
I think he realizes he's stuck. He can let Iran have Hormuz and say it doesn't matter or lie about what happened. MAGA idiots may believe him, but he'll be a laughing stock to everyone else.
Or he can pivot back to "DESTROY THEIR CIVILIZATION," send oil to $150, and hope it works.
Either 1) more war, which wrecks the economy going into the midterms, or 2) total loss, and maybe the economy recovers if Iran allows enough traffic through, but this goes along with what is probably the worst strategic defeat in American history.
Just terrible options all around.
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