Trita Parsi

The developments of the past 24h may prove a turning point in this war: Israel and the US's escalation by striking the Qatari-Iranian Pars field, the strikes against Asaluyeh, Iran's massive retaliation against oil and gas installations in Saudi, Qatar and beyond, which shot up oil prices, the near downing of a F35 by Iran and Secretary Bessent's revelations that the US may unsanction Iranian oil on the waters to bring down oil prices. As I said already on the fourth day, the US has lost control of this war. It had a Plan A, but no Plan B. Plan A came crashing down after it became clear that the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei neither brought the implosion of the theocracy nor their surrender. As a result, the US is increasingly letting the Israelis drive the bus, by virtue of them having a plan, even though their plan does not serve US interests (the Israelis want to prolong the war to degrade Iran's entire industrial base, regardless of what happens to energy markets, Trump's presidency, and security in the region as a whole.) The Israeli strike against the Pars field, coordinated with the US, is particularly important because it violated a promise Trump made to Qatar back in September 2025 - Israel would no longer be allowed to strike Qatar. But that gas field is shared by both Iran and Qatar, hence it was an attack on Qatar as well as on Iran. With US coordination. This - and the impact on energy markets - may explain why Trump took to social media to blame Israel for the attack and publicly forbade them from striking further energy fields. But Bessent's comments about unsanctioning Iranian oil on the waters are the most important. Though it's primarily done to push down oil prices, it appears that we may have nevertheless entered sanctions relief territory out of necessity. I wrote several days ago that Tehran is very unlikely to end the war even if the US pulls out and declares victory. Iran has leverage for the first time in years and will seek to trade it in. It has publicly demanded a closing of US bases, reparations, and sanctions relief in order to stop shooting at Israel and open the Straits. The first may happen over time anyway, the second is highly unlikely, but the third - sanctions relief - may become more plausible as the cost of the war rises, and escalation strategies become increasingly suicidal for Trump. As I have explained, a return to the pre-war status quo is unacceptable to Tehran because it will not only be in a degraded state, but also in a continuously weakening state because its pathways to sanctions relief have been blown up. If Iran weakens further, it will only invite further American and Israeli aggression, Tehran believes, because it was the false perception of Iranian weakness that created the "window of opportunity" to attack Iran in the first place. Sanctions relief is, as a result, a necessity to ensure that the war doesn't restart. But here is where Iran may miscalculate. Trump may not yet have reached the point at which the cost of continuing the war is so high that he opts to offer sanctions exemptions to select countries to get Iran's agreement to open the straits and end the war. He will likely only reach that point once it's clear that his base is starting to turn against the war in a serious manner. At that point, Trump will face a time crunch. He will need a narrative in which he declares himself a victor - with his base believing it. Absent the ability to convince his base that he has won, the benefit of ending the war may not outweigh the cost of continuing it. And as soon as his base starts turning against the war, his ability to convince them of his victory starts to wane. Mindful of the fact that negotiating this end may take an estimated 7-10 days at best, which is different from the 24 hours or so it took to negotiate the unconditional ceasefire in June, Tehran may overplay its hand and only agree to enter these negotiations at a point at which the length of the negotiations may exceed the time Trump has left to convincingly declare victory and provide himself a face saving exit. Getting the timing of this right will be very difficult for both the US and Iran. Israel will do all it can to sabotage any such off-ramp, including by killing Iranian's negotiatiors. But it will become increasingly clear - if it hasn't already - to Trump that all his escalatory options only deepen the lose-lose situation he has put himself in. That's why Trump should never have listened to Netanyahu in the first place.

Perhaps the most important thing @joekent16jan19 told @TuckerCarlson is that the deal to end the war will necessitate some sanctions relief for Tehran - and that it lies in the US's economic interest to lift sanctions:

.@joekent16jan19 goes to the heart of the matter: Without addressing America's imbalanced relationship with Israel, the current war won't end and a deal with Tehran cannot be found. "The main issue is that the Israelis are out of control, and they are driving this entire war."

How many more people inside Iran - our youth, our elders, our children - are you willing to put in harm’s way or have killed? How many more will you exploit, knowing their desire for change, while fully aware of the reality on the ground? Bombs and missile strikes have already hit historic sites - you know this. Palaces have already been struck. And now you’re calling on people to form groups to “protect” these sites from missiles? What are they supposed to do, stand there like human shields? This is not environmental activism with people standing in front of trees about to be cut down. What exactly are you trying to accomplish? Why don’t you finally tell people what you actually know - about a transition, about leadership, or whether there will even be one at all? Enough with the façade. This so-called “Immortal Guard” - have you seen what’s happening? These are young people being put directly in harm’s way, getting arrested, facing charges of treason, espionage, and inciting unrest. And the videos of them around the cities the past couple of days - their indiscriminate shooting rampages are eerily reminiscent of what we saw during the two days of violent protests in January. How many of your “Immortal Guards” were involved then? You cannot claim to stand for the people while placing them in danger like this. At some point, honesty is owed. It’s time to tell everyone what is really going on. Enough is enough.

ADL: You can oppose the war “on some grounds” but you cannot blame Israel, which the Secretary of State said is responsible for the White House’s decision to go to war.

This is entirely consistent with remarks made by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

WEICHERT: Whatever Pentagon and CENTCOM are saying publicly, behind the scenes Iran is still firing missiles. Qatar is talking force majeure, may shut off production, Saudis are selling gold to fund operations. Iran is still targeting the real center of gravity, the region’s economies. @WeTheBrandon

In 2001, Netanyahu was caught on camera boasting to Israeli right-wing activists: "I know what America is. America is a thing you can move very easily, move it in the right direction. They won’t get in the way.”

NYT just published an op-ed by a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which was founded to "enhance Israel's image in North America." The author argues for more war, saying "at least another two weeks of attacks will be necessary to ensure the regime cannot pose a serious military threat for several years — if it survives at all."

From the last frames of the F-35 being hit by Iranian air defense. It looks like some shrapnel got into the air intake and damaged the engine, but the airframe looked largely intact. The important thing here is not whether a F-35 was shot down, it was the fact that Iran's air defense was able to detect, track, lock onto and shoot and damage a F-35. This alone is a form of deterrence, forcing the US to continue using expensive standoff munitions with their non-stealth aircraft and avoid using F-35 with impunity.

When I’m quoted, journalists always note that my org, @defpriorities favors restraint in US foreign policy. But they rarely note the biases of other think tanks, like the Atlantic Council, which favors liberal int’lism, or FDD, which supports Israel. Double standards stink.

What’s wrong with this guy? No seriously. Everyday he comes out with a random message then goes about his day, pats himself on the back, his worshippers in the diaspora drool, Iranians inside the country have no clue what he said, then nothing happens. The craziest part? He calls on people to do what they were already going to do only to claim he told them to do it. “Stay inside” — duh “Celebrate this” — yea they do every year “Protect cultural and natural heritage” — ordinary people are not going to go around and destroy their history His daily empty messages to remain relevant is actually having the opposite effect, he’s now a broken record. But not only that, he’s insulting the people inside Iran as if they have no mind of their own to do their daily routines without one of Reza’s weird speeches. This guy is no “king.”

Israel's Ben Gurion Airport manager: "There is a new type of weapon, it's not the same missile, each of the bombs can hit an aircraft and the chance is higher than a single missile"

Told @BeckyCNN: - Trump is floating de-escalation focused on South Pars gas field/Qatar's North Dome; Iran may be open to hitting only military sites if all civilian infrastructure off limits. - This war will eventually end and Iran is looking at paving the way for ultimately entering negotiations on better terms than before, and without having to worry about another war in 6 months. - Drawing on @amwajmedia report, explained that Iran was ready to make major concessions in nuclear talks which preceded the war, incl enrichment freeze and zero stockpiling. Trump still went to war, likely because he didn't think Iran would fight back this hard, this long.

💢 NEW: U.S. firing ground-based missiles at Iran from Gulf soil, WSJ reports The U.S. has begun using ground-launched ballistic missiles against Iran – marking the first combat use of its newer, highly accurate long-range Army systems and expanding what had been largely an air war, the Wall Street Journal reports. These missiles have a range of roughly 200–300 miles, meaning they must be fired from nearby – pointing to Gulf territory being used for launches despite public claims of neutrality. Videos verified by Storyful, owned by the Journal’s parent company, show at least some launches originating from Bahrain, just 125 miles across the Gulf. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said U.S. forces struck Kharg Island, home to the country’s main oil export hub, from the UAE.

BREAKING: KLM cancels flights to Riyadh, Dammam and Dubai until mid-May 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/fs4nzb?update=…

Has Donald Trump betrayed America First? @TuckerCarlson thinks so. In an interview with @zannymb, Mr Carlson argues the war on Iran was launched on Israel's timetable, not America’s. Watch the full interview on The Insider at 6pm London time: econ.st/4rCV3gj

New: A US F-35 fighter jet made an emergency landing at US air base in the Middle East after it was struck by what is believed to be Iranian fire, according to two sources familiar with the matter tell me and @OrenCNN CENTCOM spox Capt. Tim Hawkins said an F-35 made the landing safely after flying a combat mission over Iran and that the pilot is in stable condition. #cmmxlj9y00000356ur0v6r1ox" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">cnn.com/world/live-new…

Iran is now being blamed for *not* having a nuclear bomb