Trita Parsi

A Palestinian man, nervous and excited to become a father, left Rafidia Hospital in Nablus for a quick stop at the local supermarket while his wife was getting ready to give birth to their child. The Israeli occupation raided the area, and shot him in the head. He was pronounced dead in the same hospital his son was born in.

The impact of the Iran War has been devastating for India. But India's Israeli ally appears to have given zero consideration for how this would impact India. Important for India to take into account going forward...

“President Trump inherited this. He didn't create the Strait of Hormuz crisis” These are the people who are driving our Iran War strategy… Before Trump Strikes: Strait Open After Trump Strikes: Strait Closed Prettyyyy sure Trump created the Strait of Hormuz crisis…

A few observations on what has been reported as Iran’s three-phase proposal to the United States. I have been able to confirm some elements, though not all. ⏺️Overall, the Iranians appear to be pursuing a grand bargain—without labeling it as such. This is not merely a proposal aimed at securing a ceasefire, or even a formal end to the current conflict, but rather an attempt to resolve the broader U.S.-Iran antagonism that has persisted for the past 47 years. Implicit in this approach is an expectation that both sides would also restrain their respective regional partners and proxies (Israel, Hezbollah, etc.). In many respects, framing the proposal in this way may align more effectively with Trump’s instincts and psychology. ⏺️It is somewhat surprising that the proposal appears to frontload an end to the war before addressing the nuclear issue. If the conflict is fully de-escalated at the outset, Iran risks losing a significant source of leverage over Trump. Iran’s nuclear program alone has not been sufficient to extract meaningful concessions from Washington, as was evident during the recent ceasefire period. This sequencing may reflect a concession to China and other Asian countries, which have grown increasingly frustrated with bearing the economic costs of a conflict initiated by Trump and Israel. ⏺️The call for an international mechanism to guarantee a non-return to war suggests that any final agreement would, at a minimum, need to be codified in a UN Security Council resolution, with Russia and China serving as guarantors. From Tehran’s perspective, Trump’s personal assurances carry no credibility. ⏺️There is also mention of a revised compensation clause within a new framework, indicating that the fees Tehran might seek in the Straits could be modified or reframed. One potentially more acceptable approach for a broad range of states would be to characterize such charges not as tolls, but as maintenance fees shared with Iran and Oman. This could include oversight of environmental and navigational management, particularly given the high volume of maritime traffic that typically transits the Straits. ⏺️The reported proposal for a 15-year enrichment freeze is somewhat surprising. This would make more sense if it remains tied to a needs-based enrichment framework, as outlined in the earlier Geneva proposal. Under that approach, Iran would only enrich uranium sufficient to fuel two reactors: the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) and another reactor not expected to come online for approximately seven years. Given that the TRR already possesses enough fuel for the next 5–7 years, Iran would not require additional enrichment during that period. This timeline could be extended—potentially to 15 years—either by downblending existing 60% enriched uranium and turning it into fuel pads now, or by securing external fuel supplies (from France or Russia, for example) to cover future needs. In that sense, the arrangement would technically not constitute a moratorium. ⏺️Iran’s proposal to negotiate a comprehensive regional security framework in phase three is not new. It dates back to UN Security Council Resolution 598, which ended the Iran-Iraq War. Tehran has pursued such an arrangement for decades. The United States should view this constructively: any framework that enables a reduction of U.S. military presence while encouraging regional actors to assume greater responsibility for their own security aligns with the stated objectives of the Trump administration. ⏺️What remains unclear in the reporting is the scope of sanctions relief Iran would seek in return. If Tehran is indeed aiming for a grand bargain, it will likely expect the lifting of all sanctions—primary and secondary U.S. sanctions, as well as UN-imposed measures. Let's see what happens.

@etbadabimbim My argument is not that Ukraine has won, but that Ukraine has denied Russia a victory, despite being the far smaller power. With Iran, it goes further, as this is ending up becoming a strategic defeat for the US.

Still seeing many reasonable people saying that Russia has lost in Ukraine

While the US and Iran can hold out for weeks, perhaps months, other countries are paying an even greater price for the blockade and the deadlock. Kuwait has not exported a drop of oil in 30 days. Many Asian countries are suffering from acute fuel shortages.

Trump's blockade has already proven itself to be too expensive for both Iran and the US. But Iran has been under various forms of sanctions for 47 years. None of them has forced Iran to capitulate, and they have found ways to circumvent all of them.

Trump had time on his side during the ceasefire - until he imposed the blockade per the recommendation of FDD, Israel, and Lindsey Graham. Though the blockade is hurting Iran, it has ended up hurting Trump more, with oil prices now exceeding where they were even during the war itself.

Told @AJE that the US's strategic defeat against Iran also raises questions about the sustainability of American primacy, not just in the Middle East, but globally. Iran has done to the US what Ukraine did to Russia.

Ursula von der Leyen tells a man he is lucky to live in the EU, where there is free speech, while he is being arrested for protesting against her

BREAKING: Iranian supertanker carrying $220m oil evades US blockade, TankerTrackers says 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/dmurqg?update=…

Israel boasts about applying the "Gaza model" in Lebanon. This strategy is built around three objetives: kill, expel, and occupy. As I explain below, Israel is determined to occupy Lebanese territory indefinitely and potentially foment civil war in Lebanon.

So Trump is saying war should continue because scores must be settled for what Iran has “done to Humanity, and the World, for 47 years.” That is a new objective for this war and implies its beginning or end had nothing to do with the nuclear issue. It is also makes the case for every country, especially in the global south abused by colonialism, to reopen the file on their old grievances, and line up to wage wars to settle old scores. It seems most of humanity opposes this war Trump wants to wage on their behalf and may be more interested in talking about other abuses of humanity.

it's genocide ( @amnesty ) it's genocide ( @hrw ) it's genocide ( @btselem ) it's genocide ( @MSF ) it's genocide (IAGS) it's genocide ( @alhaq_org ) it's genocide ( @UNHumanRights ) it's genocide ( @UN_HRC ) it's genocide ( @pchrgaza ) it's genocide ( @AlMezanCenter ) it's genocide ( @WarOnWant ) it's genocide ( @PHRIsrael ) it's genocide ( @fidh_en ) it's genocide (PHROC) it's genocide ( @LemkinInstitute ) it's genocide ( @theCCR ) it's genocide ( @ECCHRBerlin ) it's genocide ( @unitedforrights ) it's genocide ( @JURDIasso ) it's genocide ( @TheElders ) it's genocide ( @Oxfam ) "What is going on in Gaza" is not genocide but a secret second thing I cannot name. ( @MHurabiell )

“Iran is not an existential threat, and the United States should not be expending its highest-end missiles there no matter what. The unit cost per missile is $41 million or so. Are any targets in Iran worth this much?” -- @jekavanagh responsiblestatecraft.org/us-hypersonic-…

The level of complicity of the @BBC in the ethnic cleansing of southern Lebanon is shocking. I am listening to their Jerusalem correspondent report that the ‘IDF are striking Hezbollah targets’ while I’m on the ground in the middle of it watching men, women and children being killed on a daily basis. My colleagues are being executed. Paramedics are being systematically murdered. All of this is happening in plain sight and the BBC correspondent here in Lebanon knows it. May you all be put on trial for your deadly propaganda when the time comes. Shame on all of you, especially those on the ground who are too cowardly to speak out.

How is this not blowing up everywhere? ‘Pro-Israel German politician and commissioner for combatting anti-semitism, was a victim of arson attack that had an inverted red triangle spray-painted on the site. Turns out this arson attack was carried out by his acquaintances, who are involved with a Jewish non-profit’

Trump thought the blockade of the Persian Gulf would be a silver bullet that would bring Iran to its knees. Instead, it erased the desperately needed pressure release that Trump secured through the ceasefire. Thanks to the blockade, oil prices now exceed the levels seen during the war itself.  In essence, through the blockade, Trump snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. But the incessant search for an escalatory silver bullet that forces Iran to surrender is not unique to Trump. It's a pathology of US foreign policy toward Iran. responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-iran-blo…

Trump to Congress, May 1: Hostilities with Iran "have been terminated." Trump to Florida audience, May 1: "You know we’re in a war." @EricaLG nytimes.com/2026/05/01/us/…