Naré

The Venn diagram of people who post about ‘first principles thinking’ and people who’ve never had an original thought is a circle”⭕️ ok need to sleep

The Main Character Era Ended. We’re All NPCs Now. Main character syndrome was a transitional phase, the last gasp of individual agency. The mentally healthy response isn’t to fight for protagonist status. It’s to accept NPC-hood gracefully. NPCs have community. NPCs have roles. NPCs don’t have existential crises about their “impact.” The influencers clinging to main character energy are the last dinosaurs. Embrace the background. It’s peaceful there. 🌚🌚🌚

A lot of gender discourse is a class war in disguise . Basic economic rage . Young men aren’t angry about women; they’re angry about having no future. Young women aren’t angry about men; they’re angry about choosing between career and family because the economy demands two incomes. The discourse is a pressure valve to prevent class consciousness. It’s only getting worse from here . At least climate change will solve itself due to population decline .

This is one of the most important missing pieces as we are at take off 🔥

And won’t be

If AGI, then E = I = P. AGI’s natural trajectory is to bring about a direct equivalence between energy, intelligence, and economic/political power, with a wide span of utopian to dystopian possibilities for how the world will organize itself. Nations that are able to harness energy, firstly at the fastest rate, and secondarily at the cheapest rate, would become the defacto super powers and supersede any ones that may exist today. There’s at least 3 scenarios that may shape: The zero sum scenario If fossil fuels continue to dominate, the natural incentive structure will be for the most economically/militarily powerful nations to “colonize” the most oil rich nations’ energy assets. As otherwise, these nations have the upper power way more than the privilege of their energy sources had offered them today. The inequality widening scenario A conscious decision can be made to strictly make data centers reliant on renewable energy in terms of how the technology is developed from the ground up. This will give an edge to the renewable tech leaders of today but perhaps trigger a widening intelligence gap, or an over-dependence on developed nations to run your daily life wherever you are. Think of the analogue of Africa’s daily electric supply being switched on and off from the US, except that it’s now your decision making supply. The deliberate interdependence scenario The world finds the means to maintain a distributed supply chain stack and preserve the comparative advantage principles that capitalism thrives under. Semiconductor leadership in Taiwan, solar energy in Africa, uranium from Kazakhstan, reasoning models and data centers in US and China, and learning data from everywhere. Much as I’d like it, but It’s very hard to see the third scenario playing out long into the future, as (a) not every one of these elements will have the gravitational pull of the other, and (b) our sense of shared interests and common ground has been in a direction of collapse driven by a poor understanding of how to build social platforms, that could’ve moved things in the opposite direction. Coordination tech is far behind intelligence and energy tech today, and it should’ve never been the case. ——————— A longer argument for why energy, intelligence and power would collapse onto one. When AGI arrives, two things will likely happen; An intelligence-function collapse: AGI will gradually collapse the thousands of variables that shape the world's aggregate global intelligence quotient into a single marker, the energy that operates data centers. Units of energy will become synonymous with units of intelligence that fuel AI to recursively self improve. An economic-power function collapse: This will be a bit slower due to physical constraints, but as AGI makes it to the physical world, this artificially generated aggregate intelligence will in turn be the single engine of economic productivity. This comes in contrast to the world today, where aggregate global intelligence isn’t only a function of energy production, and where aggregate economic productivity isn’t only a function of aggregate global intelligence. By consequence, nations with the highest annual production of units of energy can also be the nations with the highest annual aggregate intelligence and aggregate economic power. This imposes a choice on the economic/military superpowers of today, either physically control the world’s energy supply, or surrender your economic and military supremacy to those who do own that supply today. In other words, for the power alpha to remain the productivity alpha, it will have to be the energy alpha around the time that AGI lands.

@kbalian90 @grok is this accurate

BREAKING: Israel Police met with representatives of the Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem to discuss the restrictions put in place for Holy Week. Only 10 Armenian clergymen will be allowed entry in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.

@kevinrose @garrytan 🌚

has anyone created gstack/compound-engineering for authors?

Dostoevskymaxx.

@chamath @chamath try mobile now, enabled, but latency is high cause you’re spinning many debating agents. On desktop you can switch tabs and come back

@_foundress Doesn’t support mobile. Huh?!

Product idea: An app that takes today’s top headlines, run @karpathy’s iterative argument/counter argument loop, summarize both sides and send it to me so I can read both sides and come to my ow conclusion.

Works now but it’s not very usable , desktop is better. Will be on mobile this week. Pls try, curious to get thoughts . The judgement on output quality is quite non-trivial. The questions that do best are the ones where you don’t need the system to decide but you want to get out of your limited biases to see a broader landscape to decide

@chamath @chamath try think.epistemic-labs.com ! Spins debating agents with various points of view to give you the best picture . Lmk what you think

TBC, this is likely a good feature flag for a chat or a skill vs an entire product but my point still stands.

Silicon Valley lacks ambition. Blasphemy I know , but hear me out! I believe SV has been this open air monastery for many decades now, attracting the most creative, ambitious people who were ready to give everything up for the craft. Obviously with an extremely capitalist model behind it. However, things are changing and the monastery has no God. It's losing purpose. I have been following the @getdelve Delve story just like many of us, reading all the accusations, some fair, some overblown and without getting into the details I believe that what is happening to Delve is perhaps the best thing that could have happened to the talented, relentless young founders, which they are. This will be obvious in the fullness of time. When your youngest and best people at a time in their lives where they have very little to lose dedicate all that energy to build another compliance automation tool, something is very wrong. Now, I am not denying this can be worth billions in enterprise value and change lives with net new dollars distributed to the founders and the team. Yet with AI and a constantly moving frontier, essentially a magic box you can fetch a deity from to create anything you want, coercing yourself into building what people want is limiting and sad. I am a PG fan like we all are. I think when YC was created building what people want was liberating. It allowed the best of the best to focus. Yet this was a better fit pre-AI where your exploration was boxed by capability. Today, what software can do is limitless. The only limit is ambition and imagination. People do not know what they want as they have been trained within certain limits and dogmatized by them. All of us have. That's why we mostly vibe code the same stuff and are excited about copying a b2b SaaS tool we pay a 1000 dollars for. We have to proactively push ourselves to go back to a pre-school era where our mind was less dogmatized and could imagine freely.

Crazy set ! @ti_morse is playing a game of his own , a league of his own, watch this space

@Jason where are your posts about your fav GCC being attacked since you were so “sincere” about your love and respect for the region . Now you are “all in”for democratic transitions in a foreign government via war and are all excited by it . Just shutting up would do many people like you a lot of good ! GCC Is strong and so is the whole region ♥️lost all the respect or ounce of respect there could possibly be for you

Did the US government bomb Anthropic?

Newsfeed hits different when there’s actual missiles in your sky . ☮️