Edgren

Confidental sources told me this is not AI slop

A few impromptu comments on @gilmourkh's threads from yesterday. Link in the next post.

@Investeraren @montrose_io Det löste sig för min del, tack för hjälpen!

@absface @montrose_io Hör av dig till oss på 0771 - 36 36 30 annars så kan vi hjälpa/guida dig tills dess att det funkar för dig!

NYHET‼️🔥 Nu lanserar vi Sveriges längsta digitala för- och efterhandel i 🇺🇸 USA 🥳🙌 Handla jänkarpärlor från kl. 10 på förmiddagen och ända fram till kl. 23.59 på nattakvisten 👌 Självklart med samma låga courtage och växlingsavgift. Psst... kom ihåg att vi numera också svarar i telefon fram till minuten innan midnatt! #PrataPengar #Finanstwitter

🐐

@Investeraren @montrose_io Tack för svar! Men får det inte att lira riktigt, wierd. Får väl ha tålamod istället då!

@absface @montrose_io Jo den ska finnas ute, stämde precis av med utvecklarna och senaste versionen som är publicerad. Kika igen, ibland är det ju lite lagg (iaf i Appstore).

@Investeraren @montrose_io Finns inte uppdateringen på android ännu?

@montrose_io * Säkerställ att du har senaste versionen av appen! 🙂👍

@MB_Hogan Revenue per MW will be much much higher as gpu generations increase compute density per mw. But so will capex per GW. How to fund 250+ busd worth of capex? Surely not with ocf, but we'll see.

Wells Fargo sees $NBIS at 7.5GW of ACTIVE capacity by 2030 🔥 What would that mean for Nebius market cap and stock price? Wells Fargo now projects Nebius will have 7.5GW of fully deployed activated GPUs. At ~10M per MW revenue that would equate to ~75B ARR by 2030. Using a conservative valuation multiple of 5X ARR we would be looking at ~375B market cap company by 2030. (That’s ~12.9X the current market cap of ~29B) Let’s estimate share count to be ~350M by 2030 accounting for additional dilution. This would yield a stock price of ~$1,071 a share $NBIS long game NFA (Always do your own research)

@InvestNorthwise During the q4 call aswell. Am I missing something here? Or are they just being opportunistic in here? Cash settlement option seems like a great option though

@InvestNorthwise Im honestly surprised they issued more convertible notes, and slightly disappointed. Dilutive financing made more sense in september, as financing was really a large risk back then for 2026. Now I feel that corp debt in some kind would be preferable (and they alluded to this...

A couple of notes about the $NBIS 3.75B convertible offering that most are already missing: 1. Management clearly cares about investor dilution and equity protection. Stacking this issuance after two massively bullish news releases increases the conversion price for notes and thereby avoids dilution from this offering, unless share appreciation makes it economically tolerable for investors. 2. Nebius can settle these notes with Cash, share issuance, or a combination of the two. This caps worst case dilution around 8-12% and could run much lower if Nebius pays cash to settle with expected profits/cash toward later stages of the AI infra buildout. 3. Nebius has completely filled its 2026 funding requirements well beyond expectations. With the investment from $NVDA, this convertible raise, and 100% upfront prepayments from BOTH hyperscaler and enterprise customers, 2026 is likely funded without dipping into cash or utilization of ATM issuances. 4. Nebius still retains massive optionality with Clickhouse, other strategic holdings, asset backed debt options, and the ATM offering. Nebius has ultimately eliminated funding risk entirely in the span of a week, while minimizing dilution for investors likely under 20% over a five year period. Yes, any issuance is annoying for investors during a breakout, but there is no better time to maximize value for Nebius and its investors. $NBIS has massively surpassed our expectations and more importantly retained massive optionality for fundraising and for its balance sheet. Big changes coming to our modeling and 2026 funding bridge. To be completely clear: this is masterful execution and 100% completely anticipated if you have done your homework.

After $nvidia's $2B investment in $nbis, the $27B $meta deal and the $nvidia robotics partnership disclosed today, this is the first time i've seen claude swear nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-an… nebius.com/newsroom/nebiu… nebius.com/newsroom/nvidi… I think this is bullish?

Kommer Kinnevik att "come clean" efter Ganevs avgång, städa upp frågetecken och sen genomföra en tender av bolagets aktier? Bör man väl rimligtvis göra om innehaven inte alla är -90%. Men det kanske de är med tanke på AI utvecklingen. Digitala plattformar är så 2022

@Snaljapen Men det är säkert bra att fundera på vilka typer av risker för med sig hög tailrisk. Har du några tankar här?

@absface Jag tror det är en existensiell fråga för många bolag. De som är långt fram på AI kommer springa ifrån konkurrensen enormt. Men om man tar massa säkerhetsgenvägar så öppnar man farliga dörrar.

Det här är min största fråga just nu! HIT ME!

@Snaljapen Om jag får killgissa lite så tror jag r"isker med AI" främst finns inom utveckling, typ vibecoding a la klarnaseb. Tror inte riskerna inom typ databehandling (dvs att använda en llm med känslig data, ex en kundprocess) är stora alls, men är öppen för andra tankar.

@barleyroad @leonardo_1452_ Its for Millicom

@leonardo_1452_ This is for Millicom..?? or is it for e.g Iliad..?? If it’s for Millicom the actual effect on some 55-60% free float will be pretty substantial!!

Friday filing: New 13D from Atlas for 3.35m shares to be purchased before 30/6 $TIGO

Och vem är med på cap table om inte geten själv...

Tillsammans med @nscale har vi nu hela två $1B+ rundor senaste veckan för europeiska bolag! EU comeback inc?

It seems neclouds are not dead just yet!

@eatonj @nbisinvestor200 I think this take is pretty good. Their neocloud exposure is not investment to get return on investment, they were to ensure demand and ecosystem of gpu were alive and booming - to keep selling gpus

@nbisinvestor200 NVDA's prior two investments were under duress. Without backstopping, the IPO it was failing. 2 weeks ago, CRWV was struggling to finance a data center until NVDA vote of confidence. NBIS has none of these existential issues.

Why wouldn't they swap $CRWV with $NBIS, is there something unique about CRWV has that $NBIS doesn't?

@RationalityWins Yes pls!

@absface Add some top line growth while you're at it.

So taking the managements "guidance" on potential margins, a fully consolidated and optimized colombia would lead to 1800m ebitda and 550m fcf in 2027. This ebitda growth would lead to even larger shareholder renumerations as the constant financial leverage scales div potential