Mark Hogan
6.8K posts
Mark Hogan
@MB_Hogan
Screenwriter, Member Writers Guild of America West, M.F.A. USC Cinema, Juris Doctor, Tech Investor * Not a Financial Advisor (Always Do Your Own Research)
Texas, USA Katılım Aralık 2012
455 Takip Edilen5K Takipçiler
@MB_Hogan @jacobiinvest He means the $100 price after the split.
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@MB_Hogan @jacobiinvest He’s waiting for the split…at least I hope that’s what he’s doing. Or else the mute button is coming lol 😂
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I tend to agree with you. IREN would only make sense in the event of major loss of market cap and even then the Roberts brothers approval is tenuous. Others like CIFR or Core Scientific offering secured grid connected power at less than half the current acquisition cost (based purely on MC) might make more sense
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I tend to agree with you. IREN would only make sense in the event of major loss of market cap and even then the Roberts brothers approval is tenuous. Others like CIFR or Core Scientific offering secured grid connected power at less than half the current acquisition cost (based purely on MC) make more sense
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There’s a lot of grid connected colocation that NBIS can buy like CIFR, WULF or HUT.
I think IREN and NBIS have overlapping attribute in operating hardware GPUs at high uptime, DC design, and now Mirantis portion of software.
A grid connected power pure miner who isn’t able to do IaaS at all would be a cheaper buy for NBIS.
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I've hinted at this many times, often half joking, but I just want to write this down for the record:
It looks very possible that $NBIS and $IREN will partner in the future.
The reason for that is very obvious: IREN has valuable physical world assets and Nebius can get the highest value out of them.
I would not be surprised if $NBIS buys $IREN at some point in the future.
For now a profit share looks less profitable for IREN than building their own competitive offering, but if that attempt fails, which I see as the most likely outcome, talks would obviously happen if egos aren't too big for this and rational voices will win.
Consolidation will happen at some point, seems obvious to me. Don't really care how unpopular this take will be.
The time for this is however probably not at today's prices.
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@JayBleezy42069 @daniel_koss @ThematicTrader @MarkosAAIG Can’t believe they did this already once before
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@MB_Hogan @daniel_koss @ThematicTrader @MarkosAAIG Hard pass unless u want to get ginked on a reverse split.
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Is $FCEL the next $BE Bloom energy?
I recommend watching @daniel_koss podcast with @ThematicTrader for the bull case 🔥
And then read @MarkosAAIG substack for a dose of measured skepticism 🔥
Are you bullish?
9 Ventures@ThematicTrader
I found $FCEL's first major data center customer buried in a county government filing. Nobody was talking about it. Here's what I found, and why I think this is the early innings of a major re-rate. 🧵 $FCEL is emerging as a baby $BE open.substack.com/pub/9ventures/…
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@eatonj @daniel_koss @ThematicTrader @MarkosAAIG inefficiency in manufacturing and delivering does seem to be an issue as well as management dilution/capital responsibility. The T5 deal will become a major test
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@MB_Hogan @daniel_koss @ThematicTrader @MarkosAAIG To me, the hole is the FCEL case is that market adjacent big tech manufacturers also see the growth, and FCEL's tech IP isn't enough to acquire, when much of BE's advantage is manufacturing and finance reliability...which GE, Siemens, Doosan, Mitsubishi match if they enter.
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@EndicottInvests We could possibly see this in H1, which would be utterly insane
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$NBIS ARR for 2027 could be insane depending on the revenue per MW.
Revenue per MW could really accelerate in the next 24 months(a lot of it due to Vera Rubin).
We could see north of $18B of ARR...
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yes the 20 year duration has to be factored in as well. endlessly complex and it's all so new that the total economics are fairly uncertain and probably wont be certain for a few years. Also as you rightly mentioned, time to power/compute is perhaps the most important economic factor 🤝
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@MB_Hogan @CABeyney Uffff, that's very complicated. It must be studied a lot of topics and there are a lot of factors there
I talk about the natgas plants bc they are probed assets that (before this madness) could be built in less than 2 years, lasting 20 years or more. $700 MM - $1.2B for GW. Easy
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$NBIS : Nebius is certainly the next AWS
Charles @CABeyney can you comment regarding this pivot from gas gensets to Bloom Fuel Cells. Would you say this change will be better not only environmentally in terms of water, emissions and noise reduction but also for long term economics for Nebius at Vineland?
CAB@CABeyney
It’s okay everyone has the right to their own opinion, and honestly, I don’t really mind. At the end of the day, our customer is most certainly the next AWS. They are miles ahead of the competition. That being said, I’m also convinced the market opportunity is so massive that, there is room for everyone to succeed.
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@AnalysisOp @CABeyney Alex from what Im seeing bloom fuel cells can get close on effiencicy ~ up to 60% (Bloom) vs 64%, but what about when you factor in that Bloom is native DC current to DC direct to the racks vs these traditional turbines that generate AC w/ multiple conversion processes to DC?
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Great point Stephen 🤝 what im seeing based on industry analyses and real-world deployments (including research from Microsoft and Bloom’s own data center work) show this can deliver additional efficiency gains in the 5–15% range ON TOP of the fuel cell’s already higher base electrical efficiency
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@MB_Hogan Also DC-DC conversion once directly to Rack required DC voltage is better than Generating AC, then AC to DC, may have more efficiency gain from here.
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The way I see it is that costs increase over short/medium term but over long term the economics could be very positive due to higher electrical efficiency — Bloom fuel cells achieve ~54-60% efficiency vs. ~37-45% for typical gas engines/gensets. This is approx 15-20% less fuel consumption per kWh. So over a full 10+ year contract span, this is meaningful opex savings? Charles @CABeyney is this a fair assessment?
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$NBIS happy Memorial Day everyone!!!
Mark Hogan@MB_Hogan
$NBIS UPDATE: Stock trading up 7.5% in Europe today while the US market remains closed for Memorial Day
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@TacticzH Not sure! Could be optimism about a war deal or perhaps more sector momentum. I haven’t seen any Nebius specific catalyst YET…
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@MB_Hogan Gonna be a good day tomorrow. Any news or just continued momentum?
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