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Evan Dawe, CFA
216 posts
Evan Dawe, CFA
@ebitdawe
Technology Investor | Growth Equities | Portfolio Manager @TorrentCap *views and opinions are my own, not financial advice
Nova Scotia 参加日 Nisan 2023
262 フォロー中287 フォロワー
@chrisstlmo @daschreiber Focus on the underlying business KPI's, the business is performing very well, share price aside. There will always be pullbacks and volatility during the scale up phase, but the long term trend is clear.
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@ebitdawe @daschreiber $LMND is down when the market is up and down even more when the market is down.
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Interesting quote from @daschreiber 's interview at Piper Sandler's conference today. $LMND
"Consumers move more and more to LLMs in order to recommend their insurance or even send their agents to buy the policy for them, we're just fine with that. If you now ask your LLM of choice about pet insurance or renters insurance or car insurance, Lemonade will be over-indexed quite significantly. The reason for that is that consumer set, going back to things we said earlier, we tend to be a cost leader because we use technology to get to the best cost."
Being a cost leader is going to become even more important as more customers rely on agents and LLMs to make their insurance purchase decisions, and LMND appears to have a clear advantage in terms of cost and a seamless online interface.
I expect we will hear a lot more about this at investor day.
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One of the best and most well researched articles on the future of Kraken Robotics
Absolute must-read!!
Evan Dawe, CFA@ebitdawe
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$KRKNF is about to go through a massive transformation and most people aren’t paying attention. Kraken Robotics just reported Q1 revenue up 35% YoY to $21.7M on standalone basis — and that’s BEFORE the Covelya acquisition hits the books.
The Covelya deal ($615M) is on track to close by end of Q2 2026, meaning we’re literally weeks away. Once it closes, the combined entity had $365M in revenue in 2025 — that’s 3.5x what Kraken was doing alone.
Covelya also brings a 24% revenue CAGR since 2023 and management has already confirmed the deal is immediately accretive. Order intake is stacking fast too — Kraken pulled in $97M in product orders YTD and Covelya added another $165M. New combined guidance drops at close, and 2027 is expected to show low-to-mid double digit EPS accretion after synergies kick in. This isn’t a speculative bet on future growth — the orders are already in, the deal is closing now, and the re-rating hasn’t happened yet. Long and holding. NFA, do your own DD.
We’ll look back in 2027 and wonder why we didn’t buy more.
It’s in Robinhood now too.
One of my more bullish positions
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The AI trade is on fire.
But owning the future of subsea defense with $KRKNF feels undeniably asymmetrical.
The stock is now on $HOOD and renewed enthusiasm around drones is lifting the sector.
It was undeniable that capital would rotate back into good defense bargains after quite the cool off, and many stocks like $KRKNF are trading well off their all time highs.
And now a big UUV story is the cherry on top.
AUKUS is the defense pact between Australia, the UK and the US largest designed to counter China.
Tbh not a whole lot has happened with it.
Pillar 1 was about getting nuclear submarines out to Australia for the Indo Pacific. Slow, expensive, will take many years.
Pillar 2 is where things get interesting as it pools the three nations' best technology.
And Hegseth, Healey and Marles just signed the first signature Pillar 2 project.
It's a shared suite of multi-mission payloads and sensors that plug into all three navies' underwater drone fleets. First deliveries land in 2027.
In other words, the western alliance just committed to building underwater drones at scale, on a common standard, with an accelerated timeline due to everything in the Strait and increase undersea cable tampering incidents.
Now connect it to $KRKNF.
The drone hull is just a tube. The real value is what goes inside (Power/Sonar/Navigation/Comms/Software).
Kraken has a near monopolistic position of all of it. With excellent EBTIDA margins in everything.
SeaPower batteries already power Anduril's entire UUV fleet - Anduril tweeted celebrating this announcement by the way.
Kraken's sonar is integrated across 20+ vehicle platforms. And with Covelya, Kraken now has Sonardyne navigation, BlueComm optical comms, and EIVA software (many of these products are also used by Anduril like Sonardyne).
So everything they're talking about to connect these drones on a shared standard will undoubtedly involve Kraken's technology.
May be a quieter edge here too. Covelya's Sonardyne is UK based (AUKUS member nation).
We are all on the edge of our seats to see a big Anduril subsea order outside of Australia, but it's important to note Kraken wins with increased spending and attention here no matter what logo is stamped on the hull of subsea drones.
This is critical technology in a very high barrier to entry category, and we have our profitable small cap that owns the most valuable components in the subsea defense supercycle to go long with.
Covelya closes soon. Uplisting on the horizon. Anduril orders will come.
Long $KRKNF.
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Kraken Robotics has been named to @TIME and @StatistaCharts World’s Growth Leaders of 2026, ranking 161st out of 1,000 companies globally and 20th in the Engineering, Manufacturing & Medical Technology category.
View the full ranking: time.com/article/2026/0…
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Lots of upside for Kraken Robotics, via Anduril orders to the U.S., Australia, and U.K.
$PNG.V $KRKNF
Anduril Industries@anduriltech
AUKUS Pillar 2 is an important step toward accelerating the capabilities our nations need. Dive-XL was built from day one so that the U.S., Australia, and the U.K. militaries can rapidly integrate and deploy advanced autonomous undersea capabilities and developing payloads. Right now, we are doing just that in all three AUKUS countries.
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Each Dive-XL contains up to several millions CAD worth of Kraken Robotics $KRKNF / $PNG.V critical components.
What will happen to the demand for Kraken's components, when Anduril has to deliver significantly more UUVs?
Anduril Industries@anduriltech
AUKUS Pillar 2 is an important step toward accelerating the capabilities our nations need. Dive-XL was built from day one so that the U.S., Australia, and the U.K. militaries can rapidly integrate and deploy advanced autonomous undersea capabilities and developing payloads. Right now, we are doing just that in all three AUKUS countries.
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AUKUS Pillar 2 is an important step toward accelerating the capabilities our nations need.
Dive-XL was built from day one so that the U.S., Australia, and the U.K. militaries can rapidly integrate and deploy advanced autonomous undersea capabilities and developing payloads. Right now, we are doing just that in all three AUKUS countries.
Richard Marles@RichardMarlesMP
AUKUS represents the biggest leap in Australia's military capability in more than a century and we are delivering it alongside our close partners — the United States and the United Kingdom. Great to meet with Secretary Hegseth and Secretary Healey in Singapore for our AUKUS Defence Ministers’ Meeting. Today, we welcomed a significant milestone under AUKUS Pillar Two, which is focused on advanced capabilities, with the first “Signature Project” under our partnership — working together to develop interoperable and shared systems for Uncrewed Undersea Vehicles, like Australia’s sovereign Ghost Shark.
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@michaelsikand Eexpecting the market to catch on and rerate the stock after the closing of the acquisition. Subsea robotics are a major growth area and kraken is the clear leader.
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Kraken Robotics ($KRKNF / $PNG.V) just dropped its Q1 earnings report.
This is the subsea drone stock supplying Anduril's maritime products division, that launched out of obscurity into a retail cult following from a junior stock exchange in Canada.
These numbers are just for Kraken Robotics. Not the other profitable underwater intelligence pioneer Covelya they're about to close their acq. of for 2.3x sales.
Revenue: C$21.7M, +35% YoY.
Standalone Kraken business is scaling fast with 50% growth in their product revenue. This is the meat and potatoes of the growth story - with each battery that powers an autonomous submarine drone costs many millions of dollars. 60% revenue growth guided for 2026.
Adjusted EBITDA was positive at C$3.0M, up 7%. The C$3.3M net loss is almost entirely C$2.8M of one-time restructuring and acquisition costs for the Covelya purchase. Strip those out and Kraken posted positive adjusted net income.
Gross margin came in at 56% vs 63%, with the dip from mix. The number swings quarter to quarter on the product and service blend. Services are higher margin and were lighter this quarter (underwater imaging for defense and energy clients), but I care more about product revenue for the bull case with orders over $97M so far this year, more than $KRKNF's entire 2026 revenue.
The order book after all the Strait of Hormuz mine countermeasures narrative is where conviction builds. Kraken product orders in 2026: ~C$97M, up from C$87M last month. Covelya orders in 2026: ~C$165M, up from C$135M last month.
What happened in Iran is generating record breaking demand for $KRKNF's near monopoly position in many of these products.
Guidance reiterated for standalone.
Revenue C$165M to C$175M. Adjusted EBITDA C$40M to C$50M. At the midpoint that is 65%+ revenue growth and 80% EBITDA growth, with implied EBITDA margin above 26%. What other drone adjacent stock is putting up EBITDA margins like this?
Another interesting note?
Asia Pacific revenue more than doubled to C$12.2M, +126% YoY and is now over half of total revenue. That is where the subsea demand signal is loudest.
China sits on an estimated 50,000 to 100,000 naval mines, and a Taiwan contingency is the scenario driving mine countermeasures and seabed-warfare spend across the US, Japan, South Korea and Australia.
The setup is clean.
Covelya closes end of Q2. Next earnings we'll have both on the books and the monster will be clear. Combined guidance follows.
The catalysts: TSX uplisting, Covelya closing, Q2 earnings call in the summer, a U.S. facility, an Anduril US navy deal?
LONG $KRKNF $PNG
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$FSLR just hit a 52 week high. I don't see anyone else talking about it on here, but it is a clear beneficiary of the soaring demand for power generation in the coming years.
Evan Dawe, CFA@ebitdawe
5 stocks I've personally been accumulating over the last few weeks, all in sectors that should benefit from data centre buildout, energy infrastructure, and defence spending regardless of the macro noise. $HPS.A (TSX) – North America's largest dry-type transformer manufacturer. Record $898M revenue in 2025, backlog up 122% YoY. Direct beneficiary of grid upgrades, data centre power demand, and transformer shortages. Under the radar for a long time, valuation still reasonable. $ANET – Near-monopoly in Ethernet switching for AI data centres. Customers include Microsoft, Anthropic, Meta, Oracle. Guiding 25% revenue growth in 2026 with $5.4B in deferred revenue. Pulled back from peak, comparable story to $VRT but lower multiples. $FSLR – Contrarian pick. largest U.S. solar manufacturer, structurally advantaged by tariffs vs. Asian competitors. Trading at ~10x CF and 14x PE after a policy-driven selloff. Solar is unavoidable for meeting power demand long-term. Near term political risk is real but so is the re-rating potential long term. $MDA (TSX/NYSE) – Canadian space tech: satellites, Canadarm, geointelligence. $4B backlog, CAD $40B sales pipeline, 44% revenue growth in Q4 2025. Trades at a steep discount to peers like $RKLB $ASTS and $LUNR. Increasing NATO defence spend is a meaningful tailwind, as well as the $AMZN deal to acquire $GSAT. $BE – Solid-oxide fuel cells for on-site data centre power. $2B revenue in 2025, guiding $3.1–3.3B in 2026. Recently announced deal with $ORCL. Rich valuation reflects the growth, but one to watch on dips. *Not financial advice
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Added to my Kraken Robotics position for the first time in a couple years on this dip. The robotics sector is heating up, and Kraken is arguably the best pure play on sub sea drones and autonomous underwater vehicles. Clear tailwinds from increasing NATO defence spend, Anduril ghost shark production ramp up, and global conflicts in the Straight of Hormuz.
Valuation isn't unreasonable given the growth prospects, and the team has a track record of executing.
$PNG.V $KRKNF
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My analysis on MDA Space $MDA was recently published to Seeking Alpha. Go check it out!
seekingalpha.com/article/472267…
#SmallCaps #smallcap #StockMarket #investing
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