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Wolf_Derek
3.4K posts
Wolf_Derek
@fbsferock
Market analyst & Crypto Trader Value Investor & Stock Picker (Small/Mid Caps ) Setups daily + real-time trading DM for collaborations
参加日 Mayıs 2020
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@SailorManCrypto same thought Pop, that area is where I would completely close the swing short, I'm more interested in longs on ETH than on BTC
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ETH
Before vs After 🎯
This has now my full attention. Interested in longs if we get a proper deviation followed by a MSB.
Just used a parallel channel and a simple liquidity concept. Ranges rarely lie.
GIF
Popeye@SailorManCrypto
Another range broke down, just another re-distribution, lows started to be taken out. Nothing new, still headed to the bottom right corner. ETH
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@LLuciano_BTC $BTC It was a clear signal but it seems that people still don't give it importance
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@PostyXBT desperation must become boredom, that will be the bottom
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$BTC Two days ago I said how fast and brutal a crash is, compared to a slow and boring recovery. In two days, here's the result; time amplifies everything. I hope you didn't hurt yourself if you followed my advice.
There were many factors in the last few days that were predicting a crash on $BTC (we shorted it from 77.5k), huge outflows from Blackrock and other funds, Saylor sold for the first time, debunking his "never sell" story, the PA was very clear, plus weakness and an extremely weak/bearish structure.
I don't intend to go long now. As I said before, $ETH is still on a short swing and is currently yielding significant profits.
AI coins are now at significant support, in the box between VaH and PoC. To avoid losing momentum, they need to bounce from here and lose the box. We have lower support as our last lifeline, but getting there isn't a good sign.
As you can see, they were the strongest, but they're also the ones that will collapse heavily if the situation reverses; see the short opened on $RENDER, immediately making huge profits; look at other AI coins like $FET, a lot of weakness, only $WLD is holding up for now.
Stay alert and monitor, don't get carried away by emotions; if you've lost money, you'll get it back, stay alive.
I'll post some interesting charts if there are any.
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
$BTC People's desperation is amplified by one factor: time. The recovery is slow, exhausting, boring/stressful; the decline is rapid, brutal, and cynical. It took three months to climb from the local low of 59.8k to 82.9k, and only 27 days to send it back down to 67k, with a high probability of falling further. Time is your best ally, but if you don't know how to manage it, it can also be your worst enemy. A rational, emotionless, and thoughtful strategy is what will save you, but without consistency, commitment, and determination, you won't get very far.
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@MacroCRG the outflows had been huge for a few weeks and the graph confirmed it, it was predictable $BTC
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GM, $BTC has revealed its cards. This morning I manually closed the remaining position on the swing short opened at 77.5k (everything documented from the beginning), started taking profits on the swing short opened at 82k with a larger size and timeframe but lower RR, taking further profits on the swing short on $ETH as posted last night. Last night it filled my short order on $RENDER after it missed on the first attempt, going to full take profit. It also filled my entry on $XAU, so I'm in now, we'll see how it goes. A good wake-up call (unfortunately, we can't say the same for those who bought every dip on $BTC and got torn to pieces).
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
#Crypto I hope the end-of-month update helped you. We had a retest and rejection on total2, which resulted in strong rejections. $BTC was holding part of the position after taking profits at $70k, and now the price has collapsed to $66k We're holding the short on $ETH. AI.D is heavily compressed, the spring is about to burst. It's vital to keep the first box blank. We're getting a bit close to VaL zones everywhere, and we could see a slight general LTF rebound (I'll publish new LTF plans on $BTC tomorrow, but I've already mentioned in the previous post, and various AI coins if there's an update to be made, about the ones we're trading on, namely $RENDER $NEAR $VIRTUAL $WLD $FET $ICP). Stay tuned
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$ETH +1.95R✍️, after the short swing on $BTC (reached +4.93R today), it's now starting to grind here too, starting to take partial profits now. Two short swings published in full transparency, with entry stops and take profits made clear (you can find all the trades in previous posts). I hope this helped someone, new plans tomorrow, and a check-up of the ongoing trades ( $WLD and $ENA )
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
$ETH nice bomb today for my short 🙂
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@fbsferock Caught this one today thanks Wolfy 👌 I'm a new follower and your analysis is very impressive. Top work
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$ENA Here we are, 18% move, perfect analysis. Now for a bullish continuation, two triggers: pullback + consolidation and up from the lower white box, or breakout + consolidation above the upper white box.
Great day today, caught the move on $ENA, caught the 40% pump in $WLD (see today's previous post), short on $RENDER went but I barely missed the entry, $BTC closed at BE, weak response. Tomorrow is another day, more opportunities. Let's enjoy the fruits of this start to the week. Short swing opened at 77.5k, which I've refreshed numerous times; the remainder is still active
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
$ENA It's showing interesting strength here, supported by spot volume, with spot CVD rising sharply and OI recovering. On the 4-hour chart, the bands have turned green. We have several whale orders, with spot sell orders higher and present for a while. Consolidation above the white box could lead to a 10% move higher, with a clear invalidation thesis. Yesterday, Coinbase and Ethena confirmed their participation, with Coinbase Ventures' direct investment in the $ENA token. This momentum could lead to a recovery. Let's see, don't chase, wait for the trigger, clear execution
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@ParadisLabs I talked about $ALMU here, if you'd like to check it out I'd love to hear your thoughts
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
We're seeing tremendous interest in the AI/photonics supply chain: $SIVE is one example, having hit above $100 today with a monstrous year-to-date return (huge congrats to @aleabitoreddit ), but I think there are several interesting ones, particularly $ALMU and $SOI; let's talk about them. $ALMU (up 21% yesterday) has a unique upstream checkpoint: it's developing a platform for integrating III-V (such as InP/GaAs) directly onto 200/300mm silicon wafers (monolithic/heterogeneous integration). This solves one of the toughest problems in Silicon Photonics and CPO: scaling lasers and PICs without relying solely on traditional InP/GaAs substrates (which have limited capacity and high costs). It's a "fab-light" alternative that could become an enabler for hyperscalers and foundries (TSMC COUPE, GlobalFoundries, Tower, etc.). Market Cap: ~$480M Recent Price: $26.21 (+21% in the June 1 session) FY2026 Revenue Guidance: Tightened to $4.2M–$4.6M (all from government R&D contracts). Cash: ~$38M, zero debt (solid for a micro-cap). 2026 Contracts: 6 new for a total of $5M (target of 3–7 achieved). These include >$4M from US agencies + NASA for quantum dot lasers and materials. Key Partnerships: Tower Semiconductor + Sumitomo Chemical for wafer production and fabrication (announced April 2026). Patents: 36 issued + pending. Pipeline: >30 companies in testing/qualification (AI datacom, quantum, defense). Pros vs. Cons: Pros: Unique technology for wafer-scale integration → technical moat. Strong government validations (NASA, Navy, DARPA, DOE, RFSUNY) + real foundry partnerships (Tower is already in the SiPh AI space). Still purely pre-commercial: tiny revenue compared to the CPO/laser TAM (tens of billions). If it gets even 1-2 commercial design wins in 2027-28, it could explode (multi-bagger potential). Fab-light model → less capex-intensive than those building their own fabs. AI + Quantum theme accelerating (the CEO clearly states that AI buildout is outpacing the photonics supply chain). Cons: Revenue still very low and declining QoQ (Q3 FY26: $1.2M). Guidance lowered due to government contract delays (shutdowns, etc.). Still pre-commercial revenue → high execution risk. Historic dilution (raised) and likely future dilution to scale. Extreme volatility (small-cap photonics): 40-60% drawdown possible. Competition from larger or private players (Quintessent, etc.). Has not yet demonstrated revenue from hyperscaler commercial customers. Trades at extremely high valuations on current revenues (P/S >80x), but typical of early-stage companies with venture-style theses. If it starts generating $20-50M+ revenue from design-win CPO/AI in 2027-28, the market cap could easily rise to $1.5-3B+ (3-6x from there). If it delays or fails to convert contracts into commercial, it could easily lose 50-70%. Aeluma is one of the few true early chokepoints left in the photonics game. Needless to say, we're not at the very beginning—we already have incredible numbers—but it has real tech that solves the real bottleneck of InP lasers: it integrates III-V directly onto 200/300mm silicon wafers in a fab-light manner. Tower + Sumitomo already onboard, NASA/DARPA/Navy paying, pipeline >30 companies in qualification. With a market cap still at $480M, it's exactly where $SIVE was when it started pushing hard—pre-ramp, technical moat, serious validations. No financial advice, just a thought. I'll also talk about $SOI in another post later.
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Right guys, give me some new stocks to research:
-> AI supply chain only
-> High growth potential like $SNDK, $SIVE or $AAOI
What's your highest conviction pick?
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$RENDER After riding the long with a profit of over 60%, we pulled back to the area I had previously highlighted and bounced. Now there are new triggers here for me: for a long continuation, break the VaH + white box + trendline, find resistance here and rejection for a short. Let's see.
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
$RENDER Gm, great strength here, the box has held up very well, starting to take some profits
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@eliz883 we are flying 🚀👨🏻💻
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
$WLD I've had a few questions here, so here's a thought on the HTF horizon: We've bounced 40% from the activation trigger indicated above, now entering an important range. For a bullish continuation, I see two scenarios: a breakout and consolidation above the box, or a pullback to the previous Bos, which we broke at 0.4143 (the maximum of the pullback to avoid missing the macro breakout). Weekly, if we're seeing a real change in the HTF trend, the target levels are divided between the HTF VaH at $1, and then the two price ranges highlighted in the two macro boxes above. I'll update this situation as it happens
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@AltcoinSherpa If we have a change in trend on the weekly I think we will at least get the VaH HTF around $1 $WLD
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$WLD this one goes to 0.65 if btc stays stable...insane moves. I had a great entry but never got back in
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@LUAISATOSHI Thanks buddy, I've been active for less than a month, and I'm already satisfied with these past few weeks. I'll continue to post only quality content, always
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@fbsferock Agreed. I cannot believe you have less than 1k followers man. You are a star.
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$WLD It's literally flying in space🚀, did you like the setup?😆
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
$WLD Before vs. After🎯 Defined early pullback, pinpoint entry, 17% upside. Execution at its best.
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$WLD I've had a few questions here, so here's a thought on the HTF horizon:
We've bounced 40% from the activation trigger indicated above, now entering an important range. For a bullish continuation, I see two scenarios: a breakout and consolidation above the box, or a pullback to the previous Bos, which we broke at 0.4143 (the maximum of the pullback to avoid missing the macro breakout).
Weekly, if we're seeing a real change in the HTF trend, the target levels are divided between the HTF VaH at $1, and then the two price ranges highlighted in the two macro boxes above. I'll update this situation as it happens
Wolf_Derek@fbsferock
$WLD It's literally flying in space🚀, did you like the setup?😆
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@LUAISATOSHI If we see a real trend change on the weekly, between $1 and $1.50 most likely as the first target range. Protect your position anyway and take profits gradually; even now, we've risen almost 40% since the entry
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@fbsferock Love the setup! I almost executed perfectly. Thanks brother. But the million dollar question, where are the TP zones. I do not want to jump off the wagon early 🙄
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$BTC long plan.
Price reached my daily long POI so im simply executing my system like a robot.
POI > Liquidity > Shift in structure.
Any little bounce could already bring some good profits, lets see!
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