Gus - The Italian Investor

Random rules and lessons from 2025: 1⃣ speed of execution is everything. 2⃣ why invest in a value stock without catalysts when you can buy a growth stock with a lot of catalysts? $PYPL 3⃣Value investing can destroy your performance. 4⃣spend more time thinking 5⃣keep some cash

@Ren_aramb Thanks for the credit man!!💪🏻

$M7U (Nynomic) is one of those great companies that have great upside yet to be captured. @fedex774 explains it best On the surface it looks broken. €100M market cap, FY25 revenue down 10%, EBIT margin compressed to 2%. Two years of German recession plus customer destocking plus US tariff headwinds. But Q4 2025 EBIT margin already snapped back to 12.6%. The structural margin is re-emerging. The crown jewel is LayTec. Near-monopoly in InP process metrology – 3,500+ systems installed globally. Every InP fab needs LayTec’s metrology to control process quality. Why this matters now: 800G+ optical transceiver shipments going from 24M units in 2025 to ~63M in 2026. That’s 2.6x in a single year. Every transceiver needs InP lasers. Every fab making them runs on LayTec. InP supply-demand gap is already 70%. Suppliers fully booked into 2026. Add the NyFit 2025 restructuring – €5-6M in annualized savings, one-off costs already absorbed in FY25. Full P&L benefit hits in FY26. Management targets: €200M revenue, 16-19% EBIT margin. That’s 2x revenue from trough plus dramatic margin expansion. Trading at ~0.85x EV/Sales FY26e on a company with monopoly assets in the AI supply chain. Risks are real – management missed guidance 3x in 2024-25, illiquid micro-cap, only 2 sell-side analysts cover it. But the asymmetry is exactly why I bought a small but tangible position.

@memely Thanks for the mention man! I really like $FPS

$FPS is emerging as the pure play "last mile" alpha stock for AI data center delivery. They aren't just selling parts; they’re selling engineering speed and supply chain certainty in a market where lead times are everything. @fedex774 highlights why this is a higher beta alternative to the incumbents..if they hit that $5bn revenue capacity, the current valuation is going to look like a steal.

@StonkChris 🤣🤣 buy in the $50s sell in the $70s

$LMND

@Sandeman52 That's how $LMND goes...you buy at $50 something and you sell at $70

No position, but wtf happened to $LMND? It was pumping after earnings. Rugged? Manipulation?

Passat $ALPAS is up another 6% today but the market cap is still €13m below the net-net value. To reach its net-net value (current assets - total liabilities) the stock would have to go up another 65% from today's level. 🚀 Still early and still so cheap.

@sonoqvist Thanks bro, appreciate the support!

@fedex774 But thank you for the research and your work brother. We will certainly look back at this in due time. I think with positive news

🚨 The market just re-rated $SOI Soitec +300% in 2026. It's already noticed $LPKF, up 3x from its 52-week low. Soitec and LPK look fairly valued now. But $M7U Nynomic looks very cheap considering the future growth. Let me show you what the market is missing 🧵👇

@sonoqvist Yeah it's a cyclical business that is in a weak phase, the market probably wants confirmation, agreed

@fedex774 I think a lot of people still don't buy in because the numbers of laytec are not officially disclosed and harder to calculate and also this not being a pure play. I think this one will only follow once the numbers follow the thesis. I'm certainly long.

@Craaazy1231 $ALSEC $ACUVI $ALKAL

I've currently got a lot in cash, I'm considering some of these stocks: $LPK / $LPKF $SIVE $M7U $AEHR $HIMS Is there any companies I'm missing?

The market prices $MRN like a slow European industrial. But Electrical Power + North America + data centers + capex declining tell a different story. NFA DYOR

FY2026 guidance confirmed: ✅ Organic growth +2% / +6% (H2 > H1) ✅ EBITDA margin 16% ±50bps ✅ Op. margin 8.5% ±50bps ✅ Capex €90–100M → significant step-down vs 2025 Capex declining = FCF starting to inflect. H2 2026 is when this story gets much clearer. 👀

The Soitec $SOI supplier I mentioned 1 month ago, just reported earnings and the stock is up 7% today, up 33% since I mentioned it and is breaking out. Here is a recap of Mersen's $MRN Q1 2026 report, a thread 👇

@mkfilko Great! Let's go!

@fedex774 I have initiated a starter position. Nice write up!

Intriguing…

@auer_trist24737 I'll check it out bro, thanks!

@fedex774 published an article on Soditech. Mth checks out. Thanks again for flagging.

Most investors chasing the space race are buying $BA, $AVGO or $ASTS. But there's a tiny French nano-cap at an €18M market cap. It just doubled its revenue, flipped from loss to €2.1M net profit, and has a backlog LARGER than its own market cap. Meet $ALSEC — Soditech. 🧵

📐 Current valuation: Market cap: ~€100m EV: ~€85–90m (after €14.5m cash) EV/Sales FY26e: ~0.85x 🔥 For comparison: → Soitec: EV/Sales ~2.5x (after +300% run) → Aixtron: EV/Sales ~4x → LPKF: EV/Sales ~2x Nynomic at 0.85x EV/Sales with a monopoly metrology asset. NFA.

🎯 Medium-term management targets: 📌 Revenue: €200m 📌 EBIT margin: 16–19% From a trough of €92.6m today. At 16% EBIT on €200m = €32m EBIT. Put a 15x multiple on that (conservative for a photonics tech co). That's a €480m market cap. vs €100m today.