@oguzerkan CRWV debt management is terrible. Eventually they will lose the neo clouds game
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loopgo
119 posts
I am seriously considering shifting some of my $NBIS position to $CRWV.
I love $NBIS and it's now a 10x position for me, but the current valuation gap with $CRWV is hard to justify.
$CRWV ARR target for this year and backlog are double those of $NBIS.
$NBIS has a 5 GW capacity target by 2030 while $CRWV is targeting +8GW.
Yes, $CRWV has $25 billion in financial debt and $10 billion in operating lease liabilities, bringing $600–$700 million in interest expense per quarter.
However, its funding structure is improving. It recently secured an $8.5 billion investment-grade term loan, non-recourse and tied to customer contracts. It has raised more than $20 billion in debt and equity this year with no major maturities until 2029.
So, if demand holds up, $CRWV won't have any problems servicing debt. If demand doesn't hold up, $NBIS isn't holding anyway.
There is really nothing that justifies the gap here.
This means either $NBIS or $CRWV is gravely mispriced here.
I bet it’s the latter.
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@NingiResearch What's interesting it's your short position deeply underwater lol. Just close it dude. Everyone is laughing at you.
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Isn't it interesting that $GFS launched its SCOPE CPO platform last month, but $SIVE (despite the previous years of work with GlobalFoundaries Silicon Photonics Unit) hasn't been included in it yet, but now $SIVE and GFS will "develop advanced silicon photonics solutions"
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Call your $SIVE stock god Serenity (because he blocked us). Your prophet needs to pump it, so insiders can dump it.
He has a tendency to crop images and screenshots to fabricate a false narrative... A small thread 👇
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Bro @aleabitoreddit is not a guy from street
“I did talk with Jensen few years back about PUBG and GPU shortages for mining. “
When he is telling about something
Close your eyes and click buy
$SIVE $XFAB
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
This timeline keeps getting more and more unreal… $NVDA Jensen Huang to meet Faker (League of Legends) I did talk with Jensen few years back about PUBG and GPU shortages for mining. And he was enthusiastic about ideas for cross-platform gaming + getting enough allocation to gamers. Fast forward to now, feels like Nvidia kinda ignored gamers… for AI, which is understandable. So this is a nice symbolic message for a return to Nvidia’s roots.
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Habéis conseguido que una chica monísima que se ha currado sus cuatro años de carrera se quite X por el acoso que le habéis hecho.
Estaréis contentos momentáneamente, hasta que encontréis nueva víctima. Conmigo lo intentasteis en mi graduación, pero tengo más ñoco que todos juntos.
Panda de analfabetos, frustrados, incultos, narcisistas y sádicos. Resolved vuestros problemas de apego primero antes de relacionarse con el mundo exterior.
María Cristina@muchapaya
Qué preciosa está la gente este mes graduándose 💕 ¡¡¡¡Viva la universidad pública!!!!
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It’s okay all the weak hands we sold their $SIVE at the opening, we’ll be able to rise ⬆️
Minimum +30% today $SIVE 🚀
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Serenity surprised $SIVE is -15%
I will give you a hint
OVERVALUED, SPECULATIVE
GOD, I HATE THIS GUY
He has insane picks, do not get me wrong
Insane calls, but no one is above God, not even him
He feels like some kind of genius because every pick goes up, guess what? If you have 400k followers and you talk about a $500M market cap stock, it will go up together with you pumping in cash
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@JakeOnWrist Read your own comment back. And give it some thought.
Btw i didnt say he is “wrong” but i add nuance to the framing.
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Adding context again and for the last time also to do your OWN DD. because the central thesis here is wrong and informing matters. To be clear, I’m neutral on $SIVE.
The claim that Sivers is a “structural laser chokepoint” over NVIDIA’s CPO and NVLink ecosystem, because everyone funnels through GlobalFoundries and Sivers is GF’s laser. That’s the weight of that post.. GF isn’t where the leading-edge volume is going, and a laser deal doesn’t make it a chokepoint
Ayar uses $GFS for its current monolithic gen but hits the 35nm scaling wall pivots its next-gen to TSMC COUPE precisely because GF can’t do the heterogeneous 3D integration the next generation needs.
It stops at 2.5D and its monolithic process caps out around 35nm. TSMC owns that capability via SoIC-X/COUPE, which is why Ayar’s next-gen moves there.
The Sivers deal makes Sivers an available laser option on GF’s platform. It does not upgrade GF’s packaging capability, because a laser supplier cannot confer a packaging process.
And GF’s packaging ceiling (2.5D) is precisely the limitation sending Ayar’s next-gen to TSMC…
That Ayar is going to TSMC is public info for a whole now.
More context about that i wrote about it already yesterday👇
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains. -> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping. And… Guess what else? Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries. Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday). Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon? Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top. Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping. After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued: Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.
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Someone has to say: at some point all this pumping of european micro-caps on FinX is gonna stop working and many retail investors are gonna get hurt badly.
Be careful how you play the markets, don't be the exit liquidity.
We have seen this on $XFAB (high €16 - now at €12).
Yesterday $KLING pumped 20% (clearly thanks to FinX).
Many investment ideas shared on FinX are amazing, don't get me wrong, but european micro-caps aren't good investments just because the market cap is so small, most are just bad companies, so be careful with the stocks you buy.
And most importantly be careful of the price you buy.
$KLIN (Klingelnberg) for example was a great buy around 10, $XFAB was a great buy around €6.
But are they still buys after these huge pumps?
That's something you need to figure out before investing.
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Culpa mía hacer vídeos y que un random que ni siquiera soy yo me haga un meme?
Ponerte una banderita trans en el nombre no te da un pase vip para ser tránsfoba en Twitter.
Thedobel 🏳️⚧️ 💕@thedobel
Veis los comentarios? Culpa suya. Mia skailar no educa no hace activismo. Gana fama en internet a base de ser cebo de chasers. Cuando hace algo que parece "bueno" simplente es lo más simple y banal y depaues hace 10 más de chasers.
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soy canario y JAMÁS me harán creer que el silbo gomero es un idioma de conversación entre dos personas
es más, que a esto se le de voz nos hace parecer aún más neardentales 💀💀💀
La Revuelta@LaRevuelta_TVE
🇮🇨 Los canarios viven en el 3052 Igualmente, si alguien entiende el silbo gomero, que nos confirme que no nos la ha colado #LaRevuelta
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$SIVE & GlobalFoundries $GFS have a partnership since 2021. It's even in the annual reports. This is literally just another press release pump for a "development partnership."
Remember, Ayar Labs development partnership was announced in 2023...and still no volume by now...
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@NingiResearch Lol you stopped shorting just 30 mins after the opening bell right? Clowns
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We are short $SIVE.
A retail-driven pump built on speculative hyperscaler links, a fabricated bottleneck narrative, and a rumored volume ramp-up has driven a 1,800%+ rally in $SIVE.ST.
Insiders sold ~29M shares into it. Here's what they're not telling you.👇 Full report: ningiresearch.com
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Salgo de una cena con unos tíos que van a construir un hotel en Manhattan con un coste total de 400M
135M de equity.
Solo en acero (lo que hace un socio mío) se van a gastar 30M
Un banco español pone la deuda (el es quien nos ha presentado)
Por mi parte, les voy a poner en contacto con un fondo que les apoye con el balance y la liquidez.
Cositas de NY…
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El "never sell" ha durado poco.
Hay que pagar deudas.
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这几天认真翻阅 @aleabitoreddit Serenity 的内容，有一种颇为特别的感受。
起初，我是被他的 投资业绩 所吸引。
45 倍、225 倍、35 只中小盘科技股中大部分实现翻倍，这些数字确实令人瞩目。
但随着阅读的深入，真正让我驻足思考的，反而并非这些收益数据。
而是他身上那种极为少见的 “沉静”。
他不公开露面，不接受采访，不收取费用，不开设课程，甚至连真实身份也未曾披露。所有研究成果都以公开的方式呈现出来，仿佛一个身处远方的人，将自己所观察到的 产业结构、技术路径以及供应链瓶颈，层层展开，供他人参考与思考。
我越是深入了解，越觉得他的投资方式并不像传统意义上的 “寻找牛股”。
更像是在运用 科学研究的方法，重新认识和理解市场。
普通投资者关注 AI，往往首先关注谁最受市场追捧、谁涨幅最大、谁获得资金青睐。
而 Serenity 关注的并非这些。
他研究 论文、分析 BOM、梳理供应链，关注哪些材料存在短缺、哪些设备受到限制、哪些环节不可替代，以及哪些企业掌握着产业链中无法绕开的 关键节点。
这也是我首先联想到 贝叶斯定理 的原因。
他的核心并非预测未来，而是在持续更新 概率判断。
先通过论文与产业链研究建立高质量的 先验认知，再在信息尚不完全确定时进行布局。在持有过程中持续寻找新的证据，若逻辑得到强化则增加仓位，若逻辑被证伪则及时退出。
这一过程听起来十分理性，但真正困难之处在于：绝大多数人实际上难以做到。
因为市场最擅长制造噪音。
价格上涨时，人们容易产生兴奋情绪。
价格下跌时，人们容易陷入怀疑。
他人的观点一旦出现，人们又容易发生动摇。
而 Serenity 这个名字本身，似乎恰恰在提醒我们一件事：能否在充满噪音的环境中保持内心的 沉静。
这并非麻木，也并非固执，而是仅对 证据 作出回应。
先验出现偏差时及时修正，证据发生变化时果断调整。
当结构性逻辑进一步增强时继续坚定布局。
既不与市场情绪对抗，也不过度执着于自身观点。
这正是我认为 Serenity 最值得学习的地方。
他的卓越之处不仅在于发现了众多大幅上涨的股票，更在于他将投资构建成了一套 持续迭代更新的认知体系。
信念建立在概率之上，而非情绪之上。
概率的依据来自产业结构，而非历史价格走势。
决策的基础并非绝对确定性，而是 期望值。
看完并学习完之后，我反而获得了一种提醒：
真正高水平的交易，或许并不是每天都处于高度亢奋的状态去追逐机会。
而是在所有人都被价格波动牵引的时候，依然能够平静地问自己一句：
我的判断，究竟是被事实进一步强化 了，还是仅仅在被情绪所保护？
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Very grateful for the objective coverage in De Tijd! It’s cool to see my work in Belgium's top newspaper. Also very refreshing to see a journalist cover $AAOI, $XFAB, $MRVL Celestial, and the nuances behind my supply chain thesis in CPO + Photonics. Ty KLismont for the photo.
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@RealJGBanks You don’t make 500 in 5 mins.
Non sense: you need to prepare for trading and have a plan.
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Once I realized I could make $500 in 5 minutes trading
Vs working 8 hours at a job I hated
I never looked back
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