Zach Pandl
4.1K posts
@LowBeta
Head of Research @grayscale. Formerly economist and macro strategist @goldmansachs. Opinions are my own. Disclosure: https://t.co/ojLj461iVI
Today is a monumentous day for quantum computing and cryptography. Two breakthrough papers just landed (links in next tweet). Both papers improve Shor's algorithm, infamous for cracking RSA and elliptic curve cryptography. The two results compound, optimising separate layers of the quantum stack. The results are shocking. I expect a narrative shift and a further R&D boost toward post-quantum cryptography. The first paper is by Google Quantum AI. They tackle the (logical) Shor algorithm, tailoring it to crack Bitcoin and Ethereum signatures. The algorithm runs on ~1K logical qubits for the 256-bit elliptic curve secp256k1. Due to the low circuit depth, a fast superconducting computer would recover private keys in minutes. I'm grateful to have joined as a late paper co-author, in large part for the chance to interact with experts and the alpha gleaned from internal discussions. The second paper is by a stealthy startup called Oratomic, with ex-Google and prominent Caltech faculty. Their starting point is Google's improvements to the logical quantum circuit. They then apply improvements at the physical layer, with tricks specific to neutral atom quantum computers. The result estimates that 26,000 atomic qubits are sufficient to break 256-bit elliptic curve signatures. This would be roughly a 40x improvement in physical qubit count over previous state-of-the-art. On the flip side, a single Shor run would take ~10 days due to the relatively slow speed of neutral atoms. Below are my key takeaways. As a disclaimer, I am not a quantum expert. Time is needed for the results to be properly vetted. Based on my interactions with the team, I have faith the Google Quantum AI results are conservative. The Oratomic paper is much harder for me to assess, especially because of the use of more exotic qLDPC codes. I will take it with a grain of salt until the dust settles. → q-day: My confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly. IMO there's at least a 10% chance that by 2032 a quantum computer recovers a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key. While a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) before 2030 still feels unlikely, now is undoubtedly the time to start preparing. → censorship: The Google paper uses a zero-knowledge (ZK) proof to demonstrate the algorithm's existence without leaking actual optimisations. From now on, assume state-of-the-art algorithms will be censored. There may be self-censorship for moral or commercial reasons, or because of government pressure. A blackout in academic publications would be a tell-tale sign. → cracking time: A superconducting quantum computer, the type Google is building, could crack keys in minutes. This is because the optimised quantum circuit is just 100M Toffoli gates, which is surprisingly shallow. (Toffoli gates are hard because they require production of so-called "magic states".) Toffoli gates would consume ~10 microseconds on a superconducting platform, totalling ~1,000 sec of Shor runtime. → latency optimisations: Two latency optimisations bring key cracking time to single-digit minutes. The first parallelises computation across quantum devices. The second involves feeding the pubkey to the quantum computer mid-flight, after a generic setup phase. → fast- and slow-clock: At first approximation there are two families of quantum computers. The fast-clock flavour, which includes superconducting and photonic architectures, runs at roughly 100 kHz. The slow-clock flavour, which includes trapped ion and neutral atom architectures, runs roughly 1,000x slower (~100 Hz, or ~1 week to crack a single key). → qubit count: The size-optimised variant of the algorithm runs on 1,200 logical qubits. On a superconducting computer with surface code error correction that's roughly 500K physical qubits, a 400:1 physical-to-logical ratio. The surface code is conservative, assuming only four-way nearest-neighbour grid connectivity. It was demonstrated last year by Google on a real quantum computer. → future gains: Low-hanging fruit is still being picked, with at least one of the Google optimisations resulting from a surprisingly simple observation. Interestingly, AI was not (yet!) tasked to find optimisations. This was also the first time authors such as Craig Gidney attacked elliptic curves (as opposed to RSA). Shor logical qubit count could plausibly go under 1K soonish. → error correction: The physical-to-logical ratio for superconducting computers could go under 100:1. For superconducting computers that would be mean ~100K physical qubits for a CRQC, two orders of magnitude away from state of the art. Neutral atoms quantum computers are amenable to error correcting codes other than the surface code. While much slower to run, they can bring down the physical to logical qubit ratio closer to 10:1. → Bitcoin PoW: Commercially-viable Bitcoin PoW via Grover's algorithm is not happening any time soon. We're talking decades, possibly centuries away. This observation should help focus the discussion on ECDSA and Schnorr. (Side note: as unofficial Bitcoin security researcher, I still believe Bitcoin PoW is cooked due to the dwindling security budget.) → team quality: The folks at Google Quantum AI are the real deal. Craig Gidney (@CraigGidney) is arguably the world's top quantum circuit optimisooor. Just last year he squeezed 10x out of Shor for RSA, bringing the physical qubit count down from 10M to 1M. Special thanks to the Google team for patiently answering all my newb questions with detailed, fact-based answers. I was expecting some hype, but found none.
Grayscale Research believes that the current levels for leading altcoins like $ETH, $SOL, $LINK, $SUI, and $AVAX, amongst others, offer a potentially compelling entry point. Read @lowbeta's latest article on The Stack and subscribe here: grayscale.com/the-stack/lead…
.@aave & friends, off grid 🍷 celebrating v4
@Bankless it’s been like 4 days since the last podcast! Drop a new one please because this drought is fucking up my morning commute!
@Brave grew to 112.15M Monthly Active Users (MAU) in March 2026. Daily Active Users (DAU) over 28-day lookback grew 2.6%, back on track after upstream Chromium Android haircut. Monthly New Users (MNU) hit all time high. We also had an ATH on searches, 73M queries on 3/30. 1/5
NEW: Grayscale Research observations from March's report focused on optimism across digital assets, regulatory clarity, and momentum from @HyperliquidX $HYPE research.grayscale.com/market-comment…
We are excited to announce the first 30 speakers of Digital Asset Yield Summit (DAYS) Miami. This is the most institutional and influential line-up ever recorded at DAYS (formerly Staking Summit). Matthew Sheffield (@sheffieldreport) — Chief Investment Officer at @Sharplink Maredith Hannon (@MaredithH1) — Head of Business Development, Digital Assets at @WisdomTreePrime Sidney Powell (@syrupsid) — Co-Founder & CEO at @maplefinance Juan David Mendieta Villegas (@JuanDMendieta) — Co-Founder & CSO at @keyrock Duncan Moir (@Duncanmoir) — President at @21shares Vadim Khramov (@vadimthedream0) — Founder & Chief Investment Officer at @EdgeCapitalMgmt Purvi Maniar — Chief Legal Officer at @LaserDigital_ David Knox — Chief Financial Officer at @HyperionDeFi Anna Dinescu — Managing Partner at @HilbertCapital Peter Suarez Ferrara — Director, Technology Investment Banking, Financial Software at @UBS Investment Bank Bentzi Rabi (@bentzzi) — Co-Founder & CEO at @utila_io Zach Pandl (@LowBeta) — Head of Research at @Grayscale Bhavin Vaid (@RealBhavinVaid) — CEO at @BirchHill_io Jon Campagna (@thecampsishere) — Co-Founder & COO at @NexystDigital Alison Mangiero (@AMangiero) — Head of Staking Policy & Industry Affairs at @crypto_council Michael Ashby (@lonvangen) — CEO at ALGOQUANT Lorien Gabel (@lorientree) — Co-Founder & CEO at @Figment_io Jose Martinez Sanguinetti (@MartinezSang) — Founder & CEO at Sothys Capital Thierry Adant (@tadantm) — Chief Investment Officer at Battery Finance Myles Harrison (@MylesHarrison89) — Chief Product Officer at @AMINABankGlobal David Kinitsky (@Kinitsky) — Chief Corporate Development Officer at @everstake_pool Digital Asset Yield Summit is a curated forum for capital allocators to discover the latest advancements in digital asset yield. The event is invite-only and capped at 300 attendees to ensure we can speak and qualify everyone personally. Join us in Miami, 4 May ↓
GRAYSCALE HEAD OF RESEARCH ZACH PANDL SAYS TOKENIZATION WILL UNFOLD IN PHASES WITH CANTON $CC, AVALANCHE $AVAX, AND ETHEREUM $ETH AS POTENTIAL WINNERS
