RYAN SΞAN ADAMS

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RYAN SΞAN ADAMS

RYAN SΞAN ADAMS

@RyanSAdams

Crypto investor going bankless. 🏴

Internet Katılım Nisan 2008
2.5K Takip Edilen276.4K Takipçiler
RYAN SΞAN ADAMS retweetledi
The DeFi Report
The DeFi Report@the_defi_report·
NEW REPORT: Is the Bitcoin Low Really In? Bitcoin bounced, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams unpack the missing coin-rotation signal, weak ETF and spot demand, @saylor's bitcoin:native sale, and why $50K remains in play. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:14 Bitcoin Low Or Not? 5:06 Trench Revival In Crypto 6:55 Why Mike Still Sees Lower 12:59 The Coin Rotation Debate 19:31 ETF Demand And Volume Check 23:52 Saylor, Clarity, And Zcash 34:25 Closing Bets And Performance Report
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Michael Nadeau | The DeFi Report
Pretty cool to see the growth of the TDR Weekly Podcast, which we launched with @RyanSAdams about six months ago. Already getting more weekly views and downloads than many popular crypto media companies. The feedback has been overwhelmingly positive on the show. I think it's because our focus is on *adding value* for the viewer, rather than pure entertainment. --- We're currently looking for a new sponsor starting next month. The package includes exclusive rights for our Newsletter (2x/week) and our growing Data Dashboards. If you or anyone you know is interested in partnering with us and reaching a sticky audience of institutions and crypto natives, send me a DM.
Michael Nadeau | The DeFi Report tweet media
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The DeFi Report
The DeFi Report@the_defi_report·
NEW REPORT: Bitcoin’s Green Light…Buy Now or Wait for One More Flush? bitcoin:native is back near historic buy-zone levels, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams unpack the green-light indicators, the risk of one final flush, and what past cycles say about future returns. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:22 Bitcoin Buy Now Debate 4:57 Key Cycle Indicators 8:39 Rotation Still Missing 14:50 Macro Risks Ahead 27:02 Patience And Returns 30:24 Price Levels To Watch 35:11 Drawdown And Outlook 36:48 More Reports Coming
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Ignas | DeFi
Ignas | DeFi@DefiIgnas·
Feeling dumb for believing in the 4-year cycle will be broken. Publicly wrote about it quite a few times. Still unsure what went wrong as all signs looked bullish: - Gold pumping (so waited for BTC catch up trade) - Nasdaq at all time highs - ETF inflows were still strong Was it 10/10 that broke something or the memetics of 4yr cycle and whales selling was too much to overcome?
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RYAN SΞAN ADAMS
RYAN SΞAN ADAMS@RyanSAdams·
correct. the cycle believers who kicked off the selling are starting to buy in anticipation of the next bull cycle. but they are greedy for lowest possible. they know we have to deleverage first - but they can't predict the exact deleverage floor. the ppl who get thrown are those that think cycles are dead during bulls (this time it's different) and that crypto is dead during bears (this time it's different). those that get thrown by cycles, if they survive, become cycle believers next time.
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Ignas | DeFi
Ignas | DeFi@DefiIgnas·
@RyanSAdams @JustDeauIt The only bullish conclusion from this is that same reflexivity will start and 4 cyclers will buy sometime this year.
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RYAN SΞAN ADAMS
RYAN SΞAN ADAMS@RyanSAdams·
Number 1 rule in crypto: Don't fade the cycle
The DeFi Report@the_defi_report

NEW REPORT: Why does bitcoin:native continue to track the 4-Year Cycle? Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may look arbitrary, but the data tells a deeper story. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down how leverage, credit, stablecoins, DeFi loans, miners, and Strategy drive crypto’s recurring booms and busts, and whether one final domino still needs to fall. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 5:21 Bitcoin’s Capital Base 15:00 Leverage Drives the Premium 20:07 Stablecoins and VC Flow 23:08 On-Chain Loan Cycles 26:08 Perps and Treasury Leverage 32:14 Deleveraging and Hidden Risks 34:29 Miner Capitulation 37:12 Why Four Years? 40:08 ETH and Solana Positioning

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RYAN SΞAN ADAMS retweetledi
Ethlabs
Ethlabs@ethlabs_org·
Announcing Ethlabs: a non-profit R&D lab for Ethereum and ETH Our mission is to make Ethereum the settlement layer of the global economy. The internet became global because shared protocols created a common language between networks. Private systems remained useful, but bounded. Finance is approaching a similar moment. As value, assets, and markets become digital, the world needs shared settlement infrastructure. Ethereum is uniquely positioned to become that shared base layer, the neutral foundation on which users, institutions, and agents can transact without intermediation. What we believe: • We believe credible neutrality matters. Ten years of uptime and the lowest counterparty risk. Ground that cannot be pulled away by any one country, institution, company, or person. • We believe ETH matters. The most valuable, programmable store of value. A decade of broad distribution, deep liquidity in onchain markets, and maximally trustless asset on Ethereum. • We believe DeFi matters. Markets, liquidity, credit, exchange, and coordination, open to anyone. • We believe adoption matters. Principles do not change the world until people benefit from them. We sit between two worlds: real usage from the builders at the frontier, and the protocol that has to support it. We work with users, applications, wallets, L2s, infrastructure teams, institutions, ETH holders, core devs and researchers, then turn what they actually need into protocol work, shared standards, infrastructure, and shipped products. Ethlabs is independent but Ethereum is a shared project. We are one node in a much larger network of stewards. This is the multi-node future. We have spent the better part of the past decade contributing to Ethereum core research and development. We are opinionated and transparent. We move with urgency, learn in public, and course-correct when we’re wrong. We are building a lean, talent-dense team for people who want to do the most important work of their careers: join@ethlabs.org
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Michael Nadeau | The DeFi Report
Many of our customers have told me that TDR Pro is sort of like an "easy button" for following the crypto markets. I cringe a bit when I hear that. Because it's definitely not easy to do what we do. But if our track record makes it *look easy,* I'll take it. The truth is, I'm trying to solve every problem that plagues the research/data/influencer/access-to-information space with one simple product anyone can access for $16.67/month. The problems we solve? 1. Portfolio first approach. We are investors with skin in the game. Full stop. We simply build our own data sets to inform that research (which we do not sell). 2. Aligned incentives. That means our incentives are aligned with our customers. We win when we create ROI for others. 3. No conflicts of interest. We cover crypto networks and protocols. We do not work with them commercially. Why? That would tarnish our ability to do unbiased research and serve our customers. 4. Transparency. We share access to our active portfolio + every trade we make. 5. One voice. All of our research, data, and portfolio management decisions are made by me. Not from a team of inexperienced analysts who may or may not be influenced by groupthink and/or commercial relationships. 6. Honesty/integrity. We are not perfect. When we get stuff wrong, we are happy to admit it and learn from it. We will never gaslight/deflect. 7. Focus on Service. The DeFi Report is run like a "Mom & Pop" service business. I answer every single support ticket. If you have an issue, you deal with me directly. ---- The reality is that our competitors would run the same model if they could. But it's hard to turn down easy money when crypto protocols want to give it to you. It's hard to be transparent with everything you do. It's hard to get it right when your bottom line depends on it. It's hard to answer every support ticket. If it were easy, everyone would do it. To the extent that we've had success, I believe it's because we do it the *right way.* The hard way. ---- If you'd like to check us out, we're currently offering one month free + access to our annual plan at a 20% discount ($16.67/month). See the links below if you're interested in signing up 👇
Michael J. Caffrey@authormjcaffrey

If you want to know when the crypto bottom is, it’s simple. Just follow @JustDeauIt

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RYAN SΞAN ADAMS@RyanSAdams·
Would you be saying this if ETH was $10K? @TrustlessState and i squared off on Ethereum for 30 mins yesterday. I think i'm getting to him.
Bankless@Bankless

WEEKLY ROLLUP: The Bottom Signal Everyone Is Watching bitcoin:native is back at Biden-era prices, ETFs are bleeding, and Saylor just did the thing he said never to do: sell. @RyanSAdams and @TrustlessState unpack whether crypto has one more drop left, what trillion-dollar IPOs reveal about broken capital markets, and why their ETH debate may be the real fight for Ethereum’s future. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 3:07 Markets - @aggrnews - @WatcherGuru - @zoomerfied - @KobeissiLetter 30:11 IPO Season 36:29 Bankless Guys Are Fighting - @steweycrypto - @RyanSAdams - @TrustlessState - @Tommyb631 55:39 @Morpho Flips @aave - @0xLouisT 58:04 ZEC Vulnerability & Jason Calacanis’ Crypto-to-AI Tweet - @Jason 1:02:55 Hester Peirce Almost Out - @hesterpeirce 1:06:03 World Cup Starts 1:07:26 Closing & Disclaimers

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RYAN SΞAN ADAMS retweetledi
Michael Nadeau | The DeFi Report
Back with @RyanSAdams this week to break down the latest capitulation and share a "cycle awareness" update across important KPIs and key market-structure data. We also share our views on ongoing risks related to Strategy, the "AI trade," Macro, etc. Finally, we discuss portfolio management and some of the approaches we're taking in the TDR Pro portfolio. If you'd like to gain access to those moves, you can sign up and get one month free via the link below 👇
The DeFi Report@the_defi_report

NEW REPORT: Has BTC Entered the "Buy Zone?" Has Bitcoin entered the buy zone, or is one final flush still ahead? @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down why bitcoin:native under $67K looks attractive for long-term buyers, what realized losses and top-buyer cohorts reveal about seller exhaustion, and how AI weakness, inflation, and rising odds of Fed hikes could shape the next major move. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 1:39 False Bull Flag Revisited 5:32 Tracking Deep Value Signals 11:04 Strategy Fear & Unwind 18:09 Who Is Buying Bitcoin? 22:15 Signs of Seller Exhaustion 25:08 Bitcoin Leads the Nasdaq 26:33 AI Boom Or Bust 35:58 Macro Risks & Inflation 43:20 TDR Portfolio Strategy 48:50 Buying Bitcoin Under 67K

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RYAN SΞAN ADAMS retweetledi
The DeFi Report
The DeFi Report@the_defi_report·
NEW REPORT: Has BTC Entered the "Buy Zone?" Has Bitcoin entered the buy zone, or is one final flush still ahead? @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down why bitcoin:native under $67K looks attractive for long-term buyers, what realized losses and top-buyer cohorts reveal about seller exhaustion, and how AI weakness, inflation, and rising odds of Fed hikes could shape the next major move. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 1:39 False Bull Flag Revisited 5:32 Tracking Deep Value Signals 11:04 Strategy Fear & Unwind 18:09 Who Is Buying Bitcoin? 22:15 Signs of Seller Exhaustion 25:08 Bitcoin Leads the Nasdaq 26:33 AI Boom Or Bust 35:58 Macro Risks & Inflation 43:20 TDR Portfolio Strategy 48:50 Buying Bitcoin Under 67K
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RYAN SΞAN ADAMS@RyanSAdams·
Ok, let me show you - statements like these that show Ethereum not ETH thinking. “Ethereum works great regardless” No, Ethereum is not working as well when price is lower. At lower price, it stores less DeFi value and has less economic bandwidth. Higher price is actually fundamental to Ethereum working well. “ETH doesn’t have to be money…think of Ethereum as the world’s most successful non-profit” No. Without high value ETH, Ethereum would be an unsuccessful, sad, mission failure of a “non-profit” as its mission is strong DeFi and strong DeFi requires strong ETH. Do you see? Had these arguments on repeat in 2019, it’s why we championed ideas like ETH is money and economic bandwidth. If your actual position is ETH is somewhat money and somewhat succeeded so far, ok, yeah I also believe that. But I don’t think that’s what being communicated.
RYAN SΞAN ADAMS tweet mediaRYAN SΞAN ADAMS tweet mediaRYAN SΞAN ADAMS tweet media
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David Hoffman
David Hoffman@TrustlessState·
I don’t think I’ve done any “Ethereum not ETH talk”, and that’s not my position anyway. That’s what people are saying that I’ve said, which I haven’t. My position is that ETH is somewhat money. My critique for Ethereum, as an explanation as to why ETH is only somewhat money, is that “Ethereum not ETH” is at least illustrative of the difficulty that ETH has to ascend as a monetary asset, given that Ethereum only has very weak value capture mechanisms to provide ETH. Ethereums architectural philosophy is to have ETH be beholden to Ethereum security - a means to an end of achieving Ethereum’s goals of WWIII resistant block space. Ethereum prosperity is simply prioritized by Ethereum, over ETH. Now, ETH has some incredible properties as you’ve stated, and these properties are valuable to have as an internet money, and the market will value them accordingly. This is distinct and separate from saying “more assets that are tokenized on Ethereum, and the growth of the Ethereum ecosystem broadly has very marginal value flows back to ETH (as intended and designed) and ETH price and the Ethereum economy is agnostic to each other in this regard.” So the growth of ETHs market cap based on the CROPs and credible neutrality that Ethereum imbues it with is not connected to actual usage and adoption and consumption of Ethereum blockspace, insofar as fees remain low (the intended design). In that regard, ETH and Ethereum are dislocated, and people are memeing this belief I have as “Ethereum not ETH” which is only so helpful as an explanation
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RYAN SΞAN ADAMS@RyanSAdams·
The Ethereum not ETH stuff is the mental fallacy that triggered me into writing and podcasting in the first place. There is no strong Ethereum without an ETH worth trillions. Without ETH as a global store of value, Ethereum is a failed project. Full stop. ETH is economic bandwidth for DeFi. It is the only asset maximized for CROPs, fail at high value ETH, fail at CROPs, fail at Ethereum. Saying you’re bullish Ethereum not ETH is like saying you’re bullish America not the American economy. They are one and the same - economic engines. Better to admit Ethereum is a failed project than “Ethereum not ETH”. So spew that weak blockchain not crypto stuff out of your mouth, it doesn’t make sense for BTC, ZEC, ETH, or any truly crypto native project.
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RYAN SΞAN ADAMS@RyanSAdams·
> Improvements on these mechanisms is what is required Maybe, maybe not. But you haven’t addressed my point. You’re saying, once again, you can’t see a path to high value ETH. Fine, that’s a coherent position. What’s incoherent is the Ethereum not ETH talk. The entire purpose and design of Ethereum is strong DeFi with shared CROPs. Strong DeFi starts and ends with a strong decentralized store of value - ETH. You can say strong DeFi is less likely than you once thought. You can say ETH it now looks like ETH will be outcompeted as money by others. What you can’t say is that Ethereum is successful in any sense of the word with a weak ETH. There’s no Ethereum not ETH position when the thing Ethereum is designed to be is a strong DeFi network…that’s just called failure. Yes, Vitalik never said this and should have. That doesn’t make it less true. At the end of the day I’d just rather hear you say “Ethereum is failing” than Ethereum not ETH. Leave the blockchain not crypto weak brew for normies and tradfi who never understood DeFi in the first place.
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David Hoffman
David Hoffman@TrustlessState·
> mechanism is ETH getting used as a SoV I see this as the resulting behavior when the aforementioned mechanism is compelling, but not the mechanism itself Money is emergent. ETH being used as a SoV is emergent. They emerge downstream of properties and mechanisms Bitcoins mechanism is its supply cap. ETHs mechanism is use as primary collateral in DeFi, and yield on staking. Improvements on these mechanisms is what is required to imbue ETH with better moniness than it has today.
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RYAN SΞAN ADAMS@RyanSAdams·
@TrustlessState The mechanism is ETH getting used as a SoV, medium of exchange, or unit of account. ETH as money. We did like 100 podcasts on this? You can believe it’s not happening or will never happen or can’t happen. But the mechanism is clear and has always has been clear.
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David Hoffman
David Hoffman@TrustlessState·
> Saying you’re bullish Ethereum not ETH is like saying you’re bullish America not the American economy. I don't think this is true. The analogy doesn't hold. These are two different mediums with different contexts. There needs to be a mechanism that drives value to ETH. Ethereum has been architecturally designed to minimize rent-seeking and value capture. Ethereum's architectural philosophy is antagonistic to explicit value capture. I want ETH to be a global store of value, but I can't find anyone to explain how it actually gets from A to B, without instead talking about the noble properties of Ethereum and assuming that becomes priced in ETH
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debamit.eth
debamit.eth@debamit007·
Since 2020 every episode of bankless where you said Ethereum is WW3 resistant infrastructure , you immediately ask what app needs WW3 resistance and the answer has always been ETH. ETH is the only product on Ethereum which is intertwined with the protocol and has the exact same properties as protocol. Not sure why you think this is some new information.
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RYAN SΞAN ADAMS
RYAN SΞAN ADAMS@RyanSAdams·
Vitalik on ETH the asset. Yes. He finally said plainly that ETH is the most valuable product of Ethereum.
RYAN SΞAN ADAMS tweet media
vitalik.eth@VitalikButerin

Some of my perspective on where the @ethereumfndn is going. First of all, this is only my own view. The board is not just me, and I have no extra special powers on the board that the other board members do not. @aerugoettinea is the one executing much of this transition. My input has been largely on technical questions. The board is in the process of expanding, and my own power within the org will continue to decrease, which is honestly what I want. The 2025 era brought many important improvements to EF and its ability to execute. Many issues were resolved, and EF continues to benefit from its improved efficiency and greater focus on concrete goals to this day. And so with those problems resolved, early this year, the largest remaining hole that I perceived was something different nagging at me: I would regularly spot people saying things like "vitalik says these beautiful things about ethereum needing to be decentralized, and have privacy, and be a sanctuary technology, but why do the EF's actions not reflect that?" Now, you may have been hearing something different. You may not have been sensing a feeling of crisis at all, and maybe were hearing people saying that finally we were taking execution and BD seriously and the main task for us is to keep going that way and be even better and faster. Then probably there is genuine difference between you and me, in what kinds of criticism I take most seriously, and what kinds of critics through their criticism are most able to make me feel pain. As an analogy, let's briefly switch over to a different domain. One belief you can have about Google is that it is a success story, and has brought a lot of good to humanity in organizing the world's information. Another belief you can have about Google is that they had a beautiful idealistic beginning, but at some point the corruption of mainstream corporate attitudes seeped in, and they slowly bit by bit completely abandoned the "don't be evil" slogan. My belief on Google specifically is probably somewhere between the two. BUT, if you had taken me back in time to ~2008, and offered me a button to press to make Google one or two standard deviations more "dogmatic", eg. give Richard Stallman permanent veto power over some key policies, I would immediately press it. Why? Because a choice for one company is not a choice for the world, or even one country. Google existed and exists in the context of a technology industry generally drifting away from early idealistic don't-be-evil roots and toward greed for financial gain, totalizing visions of accelerated superintelligence, infiltration by sociopaths, and craven capitulation to (or worse, active participation in) government pressure for ideological control, surveillance and war. And so *one company* doing something different, positioning itself to be what George Bernard Shaw calls the Unreasonable Man, resisting the trend of the times, would have been better for freedom, balance of power and stability of society as a whole, than *all* large companies bending to dominant trends. This is a part of my version of pluralism. This line of thinking is not just mine, but I also is not too far off from what Aya and others had in mind with the Mandate. Now how does this all get to the role of the EF? EF is not a "center of Ethereum", rather EF is "one node, with a defined purpose, alongside other nodes". We've always said that the EF should be the latter, but many in the Ethereum ecosystem (and even within the EF) wanted us to be the former. Now, we are taking action to ensure that we will be the latter. This is particularly important because EF is a limited organization, with limited resources and limited organizational capacity. The EF has only ~0.16% of all ETH (less than many other individual ETH holders), whereas among other blockchains it's common for "the central foundation" to have 10-50%. Fiscally, the EF was originally designed to fulfill a limited work scope defined in the token sale docs and other pre-launch materials (building the chain software; getting through Frontier, Homestead, Metropolis, Serenity), which was fully completed in 2022; it was not designed to be an eternal steward. And so today, the EF is choosing to use its remaining resources to pursue longevity over breadth (yes, this means we sell less ETH). The EF focuses *specifically* on those activities critical to the success of ethereum as a censorship/capture-resistant, open, private and secure system, that would not happen otherwise. This means making hard choices, and in some cases even activities that we highly approve of and people that we highly respect becoming outside of the EF. People of great technical talent, public respect and even alignment with the mission and CROPS being outside of the EF is in fact necessary if we want important tasks to be able to attract outside capital. This also means the EF taking opinionated stands culturally. This is all intended in cooperation with all other parts of ethereum. We recognize that many other parts of the ethereum world highly respect CROPS and related values. But highly respecting is not the same as choosing to specialize and totally dedicate to a domain (Compare in a different domain: I think reducing animal cruelty is important, and I like vegan food, but am not full unconditional vegan myself) EF is still in a transition period, and we expect its new long-term form to stabilize over the next few months. What are the guiding principles of this new form? Again, I am only one person, but I can give my answer from a technical perspective (there are also critical non-technical aspects). At the core, *Ethereum must be impressive*. We are living in an age of highly intelligent AI and all kinds of other technological acceleration. "Status quo EVM, with a hard fork or two a year to optimize for short-term needs of users" is not interesting. To some, "impressive" means: 250ms latency and 1M TPS. I think Ethereum trying to go that route is a mistake. Being as fast and as scalable as possible, and only a small epsilon more decentralized than the others, is a route to mediocrity, and if we try it we will lose. I think Ethereum should scale. But I think Ethereum should strive the hardest to be deeply impressive in a different dimension: the CROPS dimension. This means things like: * Provably bug-free Ethereum. This is a goal that all cybersecurity researchers would have thought is absurd and impossible, up until roughly 6 months ago. Now, it's on the cusp of being possible, thanks to AI-assisted formal verification. So we should be frontrunners in doing this. * Available chain consensus. Ethereum is, and with lean consensus will cotninue to be, the ONLY chain that has both (i) traditional-BFT style properties that it's safe under asynchrony up to a high level of fault tolerance, and (ii) the bitcoin PoW-style property that under synchrony it's safe up to 49% attackers. As far as I can tell, literally no other chain has this or is planning for it; bitcoin goes for (ii) only and most other chains go for (i) only. Some will remember I fought hard for this, Unreasonably insisting that it is not OK for ethereum to rely on social consensus and hard forks to rescue ethereum from 34% of nodes going offline. It's OK for chains like hyperledger, bnb, solana, tempo, etc. It's not OK for bitcoin or ethereum or eg. zcash. * Intermediary minimization. The fact that smart contract wallets, protocols like railgun, etc have to send transactions through intermediaries to get included onchain is honestly embarrassing, and it's a constant point of fragility. Hence the work on FOCIL and EIP-8141 (and 7701 and years of work before) to make transaction sending intermediary-minimized with public mempool and strong inclusion properties, in a truly general-purpose way, that covers not just eg. secp256r1, but also privacy protocols and much more. Kohaku is pushing intermediary minimization at the user layer, pulling Ethereum away from the dystopian status quo world where our wallets don't even verify the chain, send our private data out to a dozen third-party servers, and toward a brighter CROPS future. Some of these goals are Unreasonable - maybe Ethereum would be "fine" getting only 50% of the way - what if we depend on intermediaries, but make it easy to switch? But going 50% of the way would not make Ethereum Deeply Impressive in the CROPS way. So we push for 100%. Fortunately all these goals are compatible with high TPS, this is a major focus of research (esp. on scaling the state). Well-designed L2s can also help, especially L2s optimized for specific applications (eg. high-volume trading, privacy...). These goals are even compatible with significantly lower slot times, thanks to Raul's work on erasure-coded P2P, and many other optimizations. The most high-value "product" of the ethereum blockchain, financially speaking, is ETH the asset. Ethereum secures $250 billion of ETH. The types of properties of Ethereum that I mentioned above are very good for ETH the asset. Nearly 90% of my net worth is in ETH, and most of the remainder is ~$40m of onchain fiat of which every dollar has already been allocated for some open-source biotech or software or hardware initiative. That said, there are aspects of supporting ETH the asset - *necessary* aspects even - that are outside the scope of the EF. This is where we need other heroes (some of whom hold more ETH than the EF does) to step in and help. EF has been recently thinking more about how it will relate to other such organizations, and give them needed initial support. EF will be a smaller ship than in previous years, a more opinionated one - in some cases more opinionated in ways that might be difficult to comprehend - but a longer-lasting one, and one suited to making sure that ethereum brings something meaningful to the world. We are grateful to all those inside and outside the EF who are helping to make this happen.

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