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My predictions for coming decade (in a thread of thread format) ...
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Nirav Kanodra
88.2K posts
Nirav Kanodra
@niravstoons
Interested in Financial Markets, Macro, Politics and Economics. Want to revive the hobby of drawing cartoons. *Views are mine alone, don’t reflect my employers*
Singapore / Mumbai 参加日 Kasım 2010
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Iranian State Media: “A member of Iran’s National Security Commission announced that a plan to manage the Strait of Hormuz has been approved.
🔴 Key points of the plan include:
🔺 Enhanced security measures in the strait
🔺 Naval vessel safety protocols
🔺 Environmental protection considerations
🔺 Financial and fee regulations
🔺 Banning passage of US and Israeli vessels
🔺 Reinforcing Iran’s sovereign authority and role of its armed forces
🔺 Collaboration with Oman on the legal framework
🔺 Restricting access for countries enforcing unilateral sanctions against Iran”
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I reckon the global markets are waking up this week and thinking, "Why didn't we see this coming?"
Part of the reason is unwillingness to believe that something so big can truly happen.
Another reason is the lack of understanding of the globalization of supply chains where a barrel of crude from the Middle East gets refined in Asia and feeds the petchem plants to make plastics into the West, and how jet fuel is made and supplied into your local airports.
Finally, the stark realization that so many things that we have in this modern world is somehow derived from crude and we just didn't realize it.
The markets will need to price refined products at a level to show that it is a finite resource. Let's hope governments are wise to recognise the need for demand restraint as well while seeking the right balance for their economies to weather this storm.
#oott
June Goh@JuneGoh_Sparta
Taking stock 1 month in: The stress is in refined products 1⃣Headline crude price in the form of ICE Brent has risen 56% from pre-crisis levels. Curtailed crude flows from the Strait of Hormuz and the actual production shut-in impact of 10-11 mbd drives the uptrend. 2⃣But refined product prices are showing where the key stresses are. Jet fuel was the hardest hit at the start. No alternatives for production and no strategic storage. Some airlines are forced to induce demand destruction. Prices have doubled. 3⃣Next came diesel - the workhorse of the barrel, and with refining runs lower in Asia plus less medium sour crudes producing less gasoil yields going forward, diesel is facing a massive shortfall. Prices have increased almost 100%. 4⃣Mogas, particularly higher octane barrels are going up as well. Europe had plenty of inventory in the prompt but watch out for summer. 5⃣Naphtha + LPG availability into the key Asian petrochemical sector is scarce, leading to multiple force majeures. More pain still to come as the normalization sequence puts the petchem sector last to receive feedstock. 6⃣ Fuel oil supply imbalances in the key Singapore blending hub will start to come in April. Lower refinery runrates with more lighter crudes essentially reduces fuel oil production. 7⃣ The last thing we need right now is any key refining capacity outages. But as we have seen in Valero Port Arthur's untimely diesel hydrotreater explosion, such things can happen. And we would have the world's refining system outside of Asia trying to run up to max and delaying turnarounds, exposing the world to more upside risks on product cracks. #oott
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UP is a revenue surplus state and almost 90% of road construction here is through HAM or funds obtained through loans.
TeaChaiLa टीचायला ಟೀಚಾಯ್ಲಾ ٹیچائےلا ટીચાઇલા@TeaChaiLa
They get the roads. They get the trains. Now they also get the airports. Yet, cities like, Pune are only exploited without anything in return. Our taxes are funding Ballia and we are allowing it to happen.
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A high tech US factory turns banana leaves into organic fertilizer pellets using automated systems, and studies show this natural solution can boost rice yields by 20 to 30 percent while reducing chemical fertilizer use 🌱
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Sattebaaz also saying same thing nowadays
Laxman Sivaramakrishnan@LaxmanSivarama1
Cricket is not Life. It’s only a part of your life. Attaining Moksha is the Ultimate thing in life.
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Israel has done more for my district kutch and gujarat state than Iran has done in last 1000yrs so don't sell me this Lahori churan of ummah.
India has good relationship with israel and good relationship with Iran too. We have nothing to do with war. We always pray for peace.
nurag@shiiiitler
@ASheikh85961 @k_bhairav Then how do you support israel 😂. FAKE ACCOUNT 👎
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Great illustration of a distillation column in a refinery.
Crude oil is a mixture and boil it - different boiling points leads to different products
Naphtha is then cracked to made Ethelyne and Propelyne which get polymerised to plastics, polyester etc
Economy is Hydrocarbons
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To everyone who thinks we would be better off without Modi.
Exactly one year ago, RaGa tried to stop this from happening.
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)@ONGC_
The #ONGC Daman Upside Development Project (DUDP), in the Arabian Sea, located about 180 km north west of Mumbai and about 80 km south of Pipavav, Gujarat, with a Capex of about USD 1 billion, has achieved a significant milestone on 29 March 2026 by monetisation through flowing gas from Platform B-12-24P. This platform has been successfully commissioned, and gas sent to Hazira Plant. The Project has been executed in less than two years from the date of award. This achievement is due to strong project execution, through innovative use of the Drill-Deck and strong performance by drilling and Production teams. This milestone marks the commencement of gas monetisation from the DUDP Project. Production from all wells will be ramped up in a phased manner. #YouAreEnergy #EnergyNowAndNext
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Little reminder: After Germany blew up their nuclear power plant cooling towers, last year they blew up one of their biggest coal power plants.
Right in time for the biggest energy crisis in history to hit…
The coal plant was:
- Only 6 years old
- Cost €3 billion
- Produced 1,650 MW
Germany is doing everything in its power to create a perpetual energy crisis.
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“A gallon of jet fuel contains 34 kilowatt-hours of energy in a package weighing six pounds. A lithium-ion battery storing the same energy weighs 250 pounds. That density gap is why every military on earth runs on liquid hydrocarbons, why every container ship crossing the Pacific burns bunker fuel, why every combine harvester in Iowa runs on diesel, and why every 747 landing at Heathrow runs on kerosene. The fact that nobody wages war over solar panels is evidence of their limitations not superiority.” —@Shellenberger open.substack.com/pub/public/p/2…
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Never too late!
Golden Pass announces first LNG production (train 1).
The facility has two other trains, expected to come online by 3Q 2026 and 1Q 2027, respectively. When in full production, it would add ~18 million ton per year (more than current QatarEnergy losses).
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Two learnings from this great chart …
1. The energy stress will hit countries sequentially, depending on the distance from Hormuz.
2. India has an important role in the global energy chain, thanks to the Jamnagar refinery.
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@rishabhm Our neighbours are smart in playing with the super powers.
Both sides of the political divide they hedge their bets.
What they lack is how make country richer productively.
They have alliance with both China and US.
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The one upside of this arrangement is that it 100% ends and ends badly, when someone from outside the Trumpsphere becomes president. These MoFos are going to be prosecuted from here to the moon and back.
Bloomberg@business
How a 35-year-old self-described “crypto bro” from Pakistan helped his country win over Trump. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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Japan just unveiled a drone made entirely of cardboard. It flies at 120 km per hour, can be assembled in 5 minutes, and is designed to be used in massive swarms. The craziest part is it can be mass produced at any regular cardboard factory. The future is cheap.
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Ranveer Singh grew his hair long, grew a long kickass beard that hides most of the face, a face that is bearing the stress of living a double life for 15-20 years, and yet his drugged out friend, not even in his senses, recognizes him 20 years later. Meanwhile in Yash Raj films, husband shaves off moustache and wife is like- Tussi kaun
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Blue collar is the new white collar.
Molly O’Shea@MollySOShea
BREAKING: Chris Power CEO of Hadrian says “Everyone should tell their kids to quit college & get welding degrees” "The country needs you." “The next 2 decades is blue collar.” Hadrian is also bringing back Pepperidge Farms & baking. “All the white-collar jobs are going to get automated.” “We’re gonna see massive hyperinflation in blue-collar salaries.” "I think one of the greatest opportunities for private capital — apart from public-private investment alongside the Department of War (@DeptofWar) — is to build Chick-fil-A’s & bars around all of our factories. That’s free alpha. Please come set up franchises around all of our factories. We need to eat so we can work harder for the country." Chris Power (@2112Power) of @HadrianInc at Hill & Valley Forum 2026 (@HillValleyForum) cc @macbohannon
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An excellent point made in a Bloomberg article.
Countries will now double down on energy transition and that means huge resource allocation is coming in this sector supported by govt.
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Most people believe the solar panels are only meant to power the house they sit on. The scheme’s true end game is Bi-Directional Grid Stabilization.
Through the mandatory installation of Smart Net-Meters, the govet is creating a network where millions of homes can pump electricity back into the grid simultaneously during peak heat waves.
In states like Gujarat, the DISCOMs (Distribution Companies) are using AI to pool this rooftop energy.
India is effectively building a ghost power plant that has no land footprint & no carbon emissions, yet can rival the output of massive coal plants.
Narendra Modi@narendramodi
देश के कोने-कोने में पीएम सूर्य घर मुफ्त बिजली योजना का लाभ जिस तरह लोग उठा रहे हैं, वह बहुत उत्साहित करने वाला है। गुजरात और उत्तर प्रदेश से लेकर राजस्थान और त्रिपुरा तक के उदाहरण बताते हैं कि इससे आय बढ़ने के साथ ही लोगों का जीवन और आसान बन रहा है। #MannKiBaat
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I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf
Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in different major consuming regions:
- East Africa last week
- East Asia this week
- Europe next week
- North America two more weeks
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