Not Another Quant

Well they also can’t ignore a potential energy crisis. In regular times absolutely you are correct. It’s not a great situation they are in. I don’t envy them. People have high hopes for new Fed chair but he still has to convince the board. And if they start cutting when the data doesn’t back it up, yields will soar and that’s a problem. So just have to stay tuned!

@notanotherquant 👍 they also exclude gas and food from core pce which they base rates on cause it's so volatile can't help but think it's political at this point.

Powell wrapped the March FOMC presser yesterday. He never used the label, but parts of his message brushed up against the stagflation-lite setup I outlined on March 6, even though we are not there yet. In that post, stagflation-lite meant slower growth in the 1 to 1.5% range with inflation stuck near 3%+ from sticky services and wages, tariff pass-through, and a no-hire low-fire labour market. Yesterday he said growth is still solid, with the SEP showing 2026 GDP near 2.4%. Job gains remain low and labour is cooling toward balance. Inflation is still somewhat elevated, with slower progress than hoped, and he pointed to the hot PPI print, tariffs, and energy volatility. The SEP inflation path moved up to about 2.7%. He pushed back on the full label: “I would reserve the term stagflation for a much more serious set of circumstances.” (1970s stagflation) So it is a slight lean toward the stagflation-lite direction, especially on the labour and inflation tension, but my thresholds of sub-1.5% growth and inflation above 3% have not triggered. Soft landing is still my base case, but the path is getting tighter with each new print. Does this change your outlook on where we’re headed? Soft landing, recession, stagflation-lite, etc? Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in image below.

@socialtradersai The other thing is I’m dubious on all the jobs related data due to the massive revisions. Difficult to sort through exactly how robust everything is. That’s multiple years under different presidents.

I would say their projected inflation drop is conditional on no further upside surprises. This current energy supply shock is a big unknown. If it lasts long enough, it will get baked into expectations. Specifically, food prices will get hit with the added fuel costs, and the pressure at the pump will have downstream effects on the broader economy. They did mess up in the past, but in the opposite direction. Truflation is also picking up the housing disinflation quicker than the Fed, which adds another layer of nuance here.

But they are projecting inflation to drop too from what you posted. It just seems like they don't know what they are doing as usual. They were wrong with the inflation is transitory now housing is collapsing and the job market is cooked but they still won't lower rates. Can't look at truflation they don't go by that otherwise they would have dropped rates when truflation was under 2% !! Fed is going to be late/wrong again.

@socialtradersai Because of sticky inflation. Just had elevated PPI, tariffs and now the energy situation. They hoped it would be cooler at this point. We can even see the rise in inflation with the real time Truflation numbers.

@notanotherquant Why would they project to keep the rate so high if they think growth is going to decline?

@ConfidentTrades Yeah I agree. I am getting more cautious as time goes on. I guess the hope is for this energy supply shock to end quickly. Fed can’t really do much right now.

The hard data still looks fine. That's what makes this environment genuinely tricky. Oil shock, CPI ripping toward 3%, Fed rate hike back on the table — and the economy appears fine. The question isn't whether the Fed hikes. It's whether the data gives them cover to hold while inflation reaccelerates. Soft landing believers are running out of runway to be right.

@marc02200 Absolutely

Okay, important question to you guys today. Did you buy some more Bitcoin when the price dipped under $70k slightly?

So every other video on X is considered AI slop. But when it clearly shows the Netanyahu questionable videos recently, all of a sudden those same ppl say, nope not AI slop. I'm not even trying to be political here. Just pointing out the vids look questionable at least... That's all. That is all.

@InvestingAddict In Canada waiting for golf season

Worked from 5:30am-2pm today and now I am golfing. Working East Coast hours living on the West Coast is the GREATEST work life balance there is. There is no close second.

@TheBTCKnight 🤣🤣🤣

@notanotherquant HELL NO.

Hell Ya… #bitcoin

@semtrades @Brownmoose

@Brownmoose @notanotherquant prett 50/50 for me

Is everyone content mostly reach their followers only ? I mean , it’s working against you if you want to grow your audience, I think TikTok and YouTube push creators content a bit wider no? Only 15% of my impressions come from the outside that could help growing an account

@Brownmoose I just looked at the 3 month stats and it was 69%. So it’s getting worse.

@notanotherquant Bro most have more non follower than followers , I wonder what limite us so badly

@wallstnomads The algo is cooked. Lots of times I have to manually search stuff out. Seems some people content will disappear for weeks 😂

What is the point in me following someone if their posts are not in my following feed? Make it make sense.

@Brikka_trading You have nailed this so far. Hit ~$67

🚨 $Silver 1H TF is at the momentum climax level🚨 The higher-degree fib ext 161.8% sits at $63.8, while the lower-timeframe fib ext 423.6% is at $65. 🎯 ⚠️ The optimal time and place to enter short was days ago—if not weeks. I'm anticipating a strong bounce soon, but the higher-timeframe context suggests further bearish pressure is more likely to afterward. What's your take on #silver? Drop your charts below 👇 #XAUUSD #Exhaustion #MomentumClimax #Elliottwave @HenrikZeberg

@mayaivanoff No one said the trenches were easy!

If you’ve been waiting for an entry, the crypto market just handed you a gift-wrapped invitation in blood red. 🩸 Everyone loves the "to the moon" phase until the engines actually cool down. While they're panicking, I'm watching the forex pairs and energy flow for the real signal. Fortune favors the calculated. 💸 #CryptoTrading #ETH

@CXL_LAB All these central banks glued to the energy situation right now.

#Macro • US: Jobless 205K vs 215K; NHS 587K vs ~720K; Philly Fed 18.1 vs 10 • Jobless: AU 4.3% vs 4.1%; UK 5.2% vs 5.3% • ECB held 2%-2.15%; 2026 infl 2.6% • BoJ held 0.75%; BoE held 3.75% • SNB held 0%; Riksbank held 1.75% Next: • US Baker Hughes, CA Retail/NHPI Mar 20

@CXL_LAB Yeah it’s going to start getting baked in eventually. With this supply induced shock it’s difficult to know when it will end because of the geopolitics.

@notanotherquant If crude prices will remain this elevated expect inflation to heat up increasing risks of recession

@Money_WiseX It’s true. I don’t think the 1970s style is on the table. But even a stagflation-lite version is something we really want to avoid.

@notanotherquant The Most Dangerous Macro Environment isn't Recession or Inflation, it's the Ambiguous Middle where the Fed can't move in either direction without making the other problem worse, and that's exactly where we're sitting right now !

@WatcherGuru The printer isn’t even warm yet.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US war with Iran has now cost an estimated $25,000,000,000 since strikes began.