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#Macro Weekly Recap 🌍 • US: Jobless 214K, PHS +1.5%; UMich 49.8, 1y infl 4.7% • PMI (Mfg/Svcs): US 54/51.3; UK 53.6/52; EU 52.2/47.4; JP 54.9/51.2 • Retail: US +1.7%, UK +0.7% • CPI: UK 3.3%; CA 2.4%; JP 1.5% • EU Conf -20.6 (ZEW -20.4); UK Unemp 4.9%; DE PPI -0.2%, Ifo 84.4 (ZEW -17.2) • CN FDI -7.3%, LPR N/C; JP Trade ¥0.667T This week delivered a tale of resilient flash PMIs and steady retail sales, but softer services readings, cooling confidence, and mixed inflation prints kept the overall tone cautious while central banks stayed firmly data-dependent. Monday opened with inflation, housing, and policy signals. Canada CPI rose 0.9, 2.4% YoY (vs 0.3%/2.2% expected). US SCE job-search expectations eased to 22.5% versus 23.8%. China kept LPR rates unchanged (1Y 3%, 5Y 3.5%). Germany PPI printed +2.5%, -0.2% YoY (vs 1.4%/-1.8%). Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index fell -0.4% vs -1%. Fed’s Barr said banks remain stable while ECB’s Lagarde noted there is still “no path yet” for cuts. Tuesday brought retail, housing, and sentiment data. US Retail Sales beat at +1.7% vs +1.4% and Pending Home Sales rose +1.5% vs +0.9%. ZEW sentiment weakened sharply: Germany -17.2 vs -5 and EU -20.4 vs -3.6. UK unemployment fell to 4.9% vs 5.2%. Fed’s Waller highlighted war-driven inflation risks while ECB’s de Guindos said there is “no rush” on rate cuts. Wednesday focused on mortgages, CPI, and confidence. US MBA mortgage applications surged +7.9% vs +1.8%. UK CPI rose to 3.3% vs 3.2% (prior 3%). Canada New Housing Price Index slipped -0.2% vs +0.2%. Japan trade balance came in at ¥0.667T vs ¥1.11T expected. EU consumer confidence weakened to -20.6 vs -16.3. Finland unemployment ticked up to 11.1% vs 10.9%. Thursday was all about the flash PMIs. US jobless claims printed 214K vs 212K. Flash manufacturing PMIs surprised higher: US 54 vs 52.5, UK 53.6 vs 49.9, EU 52.2 vs 50.8, Japan 54.9 vs 51.2. Flash services PMIs were softer: US 51.3 vs 50.3, UK 52 vs 50, EU 47.4 vs 50.2, Japan 51.2 vs 53. Meanwhile, South Korea Q1 GDP beat at 1.7% vs 1%. Friday wrapped the week with final sentiment and retail reads. UMich consumer sentiment rose to 49.8 vs 47.6 prelim with 1-year inflation expectations easing to 4.7% vs 4.8%. Germany Ifo business climate fell to 84.4 vs 85.5 (a one-year low). UK retail sales beat at +0.7% vs +0.2% (driven by oil). Japan CPI printed 1.5% headline & 1.8% core (both in line with estimates). China FDI fell -7.3% vs -5.4% (prior -5.7%). France consumer confidence slipped to 84 vs 88 (prior 89). Stepping back, this week showed: Strong flash manufacturing PMIs and retail beats provided some optimism, but softer services PMIs, weakening confidence (ZEW, EU, Ifo, UMich), sticky UK CPI, and mixed central-bank comments left markets watching for clearer signals on inflation and growth. Are the PMI resilience and retail strength enough to support a soft landing, or will the cooling confidence and sticky inflation keep rate-cut expectations on hold? How do you interpret it 👇

#Macro Weekly Recap 🌍 • US: Core PCE 3.2%; Jobless 189K; Conf 92.8; Durable +0.8% • EU: Conf 93; GfK -33.3 • FOMC, ECB, BoE, BoC, BoJ (all N/C) • CPI: AU 4.1%; DE 2.9%; Tokyo 1.6% • GDP: US +2%, DE +0.3%, FR 0% • JP Retail +1.7%; UK NHPI +0.4% • PMI (Mfg): US 52.7; CA 53.3; UK 53.6; JP 55.1; CN 50.3 • CN: Ind Profits +15.5%; MLF 400B Macro this week was defined by steady central-bank holds across the board, resilient final PMIs, and mixed inflation/growth prints that kept the data-dependent narrative firmly in place. Monday set a quiet tone with regional activity and confidence data. Dallas Fed manufacturing index slipped to -2.3 versus +0.9 expected. Japan March real exports fell -0.3% vs +0.5% while real imports rose +1.2% vs +0.4%. China Q1 industrial profits beat at +15.5% vs +12% and the PBoC injected ¥400B via MLF (vs ¥600B prior). Germany GfK consumer confidence weakened to -33.3 vs -29.5. Swiss M2 and M3 growth both accelerated to +0.5% vs +0.1%. Tuesday brought consumer and housing sentiment. US Conference Board consumer confidence rose to 92.8 vs 89, Richmond Fed manufacturing index improved to 3 vs 0, and S&P/Case-Shiller home price index printed +1% vs +1.2%. The BoJ held rates at 0.75%. ECB’s Bank Lending Survey for Q1 showed tighter credit conditions than the slight stabilization that had been expected. Wednesday, rates and inflation. US durable goods orders beat at +0.8% vs +0.5%. The FOMC held at 3.50%-3.75% and the BoC held at 2.25%. Australia Q1 CPI came in at +4.1% YoY (March +4.6%) vs +4.2% expected. Germany flash CPI printed +2.9% YoY vs +3%. EU ESI sentiment index fell to 93 vs 95.2. Thursday, growth & more rates/inflation. US core PCE held steady at 3.2% while jobless claims improved at 189K vs 215K. Q1 GDP flash estimates showed US +2% vs +2.3%, Germany +0.3% vs +0.2%, and France 0% vs +0.2%. The ECB and BoE kept rates unchanged. China NBS manufacturing PMI edged higher to 50.3 vs 50.1. Japan retail sales rose +1.7% vs +1% and Tokyo CPI printed +1.6% in line with estimates. Friday wrapped the week with final PMIs. US Baker Hughes rig count rose to 547 vs 544 prior. Final April manufacturing PMIs showed resilience: US S&P Global 54.5 vs 54 and ISM 52.7 vs 53.1, Canada 53.3 vs 51.4, UK 53.6 vs 50.3, and Japan 55.1 vs 54.9. UK NHPI housing prices rose +0.4% vs 0.1%. BoE consumer credit grew £1.9B vs £1.6B. Taking the broader macro view: Solid manufacturing PMIs across major economies, strong China industrial profits, US durable goods beat & improved CB consumer confidence + steady central-bank holds were the key positives, while slightly softer US GDP flash, cooling European confidence, and a PBoC MLF injection miss kept the overall tone balanced. Is this enough data resilience to preserve the soft-landing case, or do confidence weakness and inflation persistence keep the Fed sidelined even longer? Are you leaning cautious here? 👇

#SP Weekly Recap 🌍 • S&P 500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +2.3%, Dow -0.4% — on Hormuz re-blockade, truce extension, 2nd talks plans & Intel-led tech rally • STOXX 50 -2.2% — on weak ZEW/Svcs & hot HICP vs UK Retail • Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng -1.6% — on JP CPI/de-escalation vs CN FDI miss Hormuz re-blockade and stalled talks early on gave way to an indefinite ceasefire extension and fresh 2nd-round Islamabad talks, while an Intel/AMD-led tech rally helped the Nasdaq shrug off mixed macro and Fed noise. Monday opened with fresh tension. Hormuz was re-blocked, Iran shifted away from talks (pushing Pakistan efforts instead), and hot Canadian CPI hit the tape. S&P 500 -0.24%, Nasdaq -0.36%, Dow -0.03%. Europe fell -0.71% on hotter DE PPI while Japan and Hong Kong traded mildly red. Tuesday saw risk-off intensify. Iran halted US talks ahead of the Wednesday deadline, oil surged, and weak ZEW sentiment crushed Europe. S&P 500 -0.63%, Nasdaq -0.25%, STOXX 50 -1.82%. Asia followed the global mood lower despite solid US Retail and Pending Home Sales beats. Wednesday flipped the script. The US and Iran agreed to an indefinite ceasefire extension, MBA mortgage apps beat handily, and de-escalation hopes returned. S&P 500 +1.05%, Nasdaq +1.43%, Nikkei +1.71%. Europe and Hong Kong were more muted on hot UK CPI and weak EU confidence. Thursday brought more volatility. Trump ordered strikes on Iranian minelayers (“shoot and kill”), yet strong US jobless claims and flash PMIs (especially manufacturing beats) provided some support. S&P 500 -0.41%, Nasdaq -0.51%. Europe and Asia pulled back on weak services data. Friday delivered the cleanest close. Confirmation of 2nd US-Iran talks in Islamabad this Saturday (which got eventually cancelled this weekend), a solid final UMich print, and a sharp rally in Intel (>25%) and AMD (>15%) powered the tape. S&P 500 +0.8%, Nasdaq +1.42%, STOXX 50 +0.82%, Nikkei +1.85%, Hang Seng +0.9% (despite the CN FDI miss). From a broader lens: A classic geopolitics-driven week: early Hormuz re-blockade and talk stalls were fully offset by the ceasefire extension and fresh Pakistan-mediated talks, while the tech sector (Intel/AMD) carried the Nasdaq to a strong +2.3% gain. The S&P 500 finished modestly higher at +0.6%, but the Dow slipped -0.4%. Europe lagged with -2.2% STOXX 50 on weak ZEW/services and hot HICP despite UK Retail strength. Japan eked out +0.6% on inline CPI and de-escalation relief while Hong Kong dropped -1.6% on the China FDI miss. Oil trended higher on escalation before easing slightly on talks confirmation. The big takeaway: truce progress and second-round talks kept downside limited, but the macro backdrop stayed noisy with hotter inflation prints and mixed PMIs. Was this week the start of a real truce-driven relief rally… or just another Hormuz headline fakeout (as Trump cancelled 2nd round Islamabad talks)? How are you reading this setup 👇