Pablo Hernandez-Lagos

The Paradox of Civilization cambridge.org/core/journals/…

Coauthors @Manav_Raj_ @EdFelten and I have a new article in @CACMmag in which we argue for some labor policy responses to AI cacm.acm.org/opinion/genera…

@smilleralert @AlexBartik @elizabethrds @dbroockman My abstract image cut out the title, so here it is again to help people find the paper. 😂 Paper: evavivalt.com/wp-content/upl…

What about effects on health outcomes? Healthcare costs are so high in the US, even small improvements could potentially save a lot of money. So did people become healthier? Check out this thread:

@chamath It will be interesting to see whether this reverses when the 2023 data go out. The wsj acknowledges that the NYS outflow was reduced in 2022. True: Large cities in outflow states are too expensive still.

When a company loses revenues or customers, it drops prices or improves service. Otherwise it goes bankrupt. This basic tenet should also be understood by state legislators. And California and New York need to hear the message more than anyone. If all the mobile, wealthy people leave California and New York and mostly middle and lower income people are left to pay their exorbitant taxes and deal with rampant crime, both states will fail. Imager per WSJ:

@chamath True. Size matters a lot: nature.com/articles/s4159…

China is emerging as a scientific superpower, surpassing the U.S. and EU in both highly-cited publications and contributions to prestigious journals like Nature. What has driven this shift? First, China's R&D spending has increased 16-fold since 2000, with spending strategically directed by the CCP's long-term vision. Moreover, China continues to attract top talent, including Chinese scientists who studied abroad, partly by offering bonuses and grants to establish labs in China. Chinese universities are also now equipped with state-of-the-art facilities, and they offer sizable bonuses for faculty members that publish their research in prestigious journals.

What I Read This Week… The Labor Department reported Wednesday that CPI held steady at 3.3%. Later that day, Powell announced during June’s FOMC meeting that he is looking for signs that inflation is moving towards the Fed’s 2% target before considering rate cuts. This marks a shift in stance from recent meetings where Powell suggested that the Fed would cut rates during the latter half of this year. Why the shift? Experts believe Powell is keen to protect his credibility and avoid cutting rates prematurely, especially after being criticized for reacting too slowly to rising inflation in 2021.

@LauraBoudreau @paul_gertler Thanks to you for producing great work for all of us to learn and enjoy!

@pablhern @paul_gertler Thanks, Pablo!

This is a wonderful paper by @LauraBoudreau. I enjoyed watching it emerge and evolve over time into a masterpiece.

Here is the @Nature sci rep paper: nature.com/articles/s4159…

China depends on the US for AI, but China's influence has grown significantly over time. Check @robseamans thread on the "Beijing Dilemma," my latest article at @BrookingsInst

Inspiring!

Stock-bond returns correlation was negative for 20 years and now is positive again. Fascinating work by @stevehouf

@stevehouf @MKTWgoldstein Clear and insightful work. Question: have you been able to update this correlation plot? Are correlations positive right now, if so, how positive?

Thanks to @MKTWgoldstein for a really flattering article and a great discussion about my PhD dissertation on the time-varying impact of Treasury supply on bond yields! marketwatch.com/story/this-res…

@robseamans wdyt?

We've released annotated slides for a talk titled "Evaluating LLMs is a minefield". Current ways of evaluating chatbots/LLMs don't work well, especially for questions about societal impact. There are no quick fixes. More research is needed. w/ @sayashk 🧵cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/talks…

I had the privilege of visiting the Kyiv School of Economics, where I co-taught a class on Health Economics. During my visit, I also had the opportunity to deliver a lecture on the importance of Ukraine's full incorporation into the EU. These sessions were attended by both journalists and students. Additionally, I had the pleasure of addressing MBA students on topics related to macroeconomics and economic policy. Above all, it was truly fulfilling to visit the university and support my colleagues during these challenging times.

Fun (for me - see how much I’m moving my hands … ) interview on the paper with @jaredcrubin @SerorAvner and Thierry Verdier now published on @j_econ_growth link.springer.com/article/10.100…

AI and Leadership My podcast with Jeff Hunt of @GoalSpan youtu.be/lIl1SitPAx0?si… via @YouTube

Are online prices higher because of pricing algorithms? Here we provide a high-level summary of the recent economic literature (see footnotes for papers): brookings.edu/articles/are-o…

Excellent paper.