@MaxAbrahms You might want to look in the mirror when it comes to wishful thinking...
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I am no Jedi
21.7K posts
The enormous discrepancy between Iran’s increasingly desperate situation and the chorus of pundits claiming it has gained power is a testament to how wishful thinking can appeal to people over reality.
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@11_r79 @B36Peacemaker @gummibear737 Nope. That was US and Israeli propaganda. And in any case, after killing over 150 school girls, good luck with anyone who is at odds withe current government thinking the US is their savior.
Meanwhile, divisions in the US are deep and intense.
Trump is way below water...
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@urdsama00 @B36Peacemaker @gummibear737 How is the US going to hurt more? Iran's people were revolting prior to this.
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This has turned into the Boring Iran War and for some people they think this means Iran is winning…sorry Chancellor Merz
If not getting bombed qualifies, then I guess so
But in reality, the US is waiting them out…hoping not to have to bomb dual use infrastructure
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@LarrySchweikart Another braindead twitter post from someone completely detached from reality.
Fool.
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Iran is screwed beyond measure.
Chy-na is screwed beyond measure.
The DemoKKKrats are screwed beyond measure.
A Great Reckoning is upon them all.
Miad Maleki@miadmaleki
This confirms ~ 13-day onshore storage estimate: Iran is now using containers and "junk storage" (disused tanks in poor condition) in Ahvaz and Asaluyeh to avoid cutting production. And now rail. They're delay tactics measured in days, not weeks. 1. Why rail is a dead end: Iran's own senior rail transport expert Morteza Naserian told Mehr News there are only 2 rail corridors to China, never used for petroleum, with severely limited capacity and zero bulk crude infrastructure. 2. The floating storage "fix" is equally thin. Iran pulled NASHA (IMO 9079107), a 30-year-old retired VLCC, out of the breakers. NASHA buys ~48 hours. 3. Jask terminal storage tanks have reportedly already hit maximum capacity as of April 25. Some tankers are now anchored near Kharg acting as improvised overflow. a fleet the Islamic Republic can't replicate at scale. 4. The 2020 precedent that some point out to (85% storage utilization + 120 Mbbl afloat) was managed under very different conditions (I was watching it from the inside): it was sanctions without a naval blockade, and with active export channels still partially open. That escape valve is gone now, and Iran's tankers (including its ghost fleet) are already filled up with 166M barrels. 5. Bottom line: containers, junk tanks, retired VLCCs, and rail fantasies are not a storage strategy. They're the last moves of a system running out of room, exactly on the timeline that was estimated. Don't forget about the gasoline shortage clock. wsj.com/livecoverage/i…
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@11_r79 @B36Peacemaker @gummibear737 The US is going to hurt much worse than Iran.
They are built for this, the US is not. US citizens will not stand for it.
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@ben_titcomb @aeberman12 No, they are not.
The recent increase has been very small with no plans to go much beyond that.
In any case, that won't help the average US citizen. Prices will go up, up up.
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@urdsama00 @aeberman12 I think the US just recently crossed the line. From my understanding, they are an exporter marginally.
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Oil prices can't be whatever people think they should be
Hormuz risk is real, but inventories are still above the 5-year average.
No deficit, no urgency.
When stocks flip to deficit—
that’s when price moves to $120 or $150
Markets are cheap.
#OilMarkets #Commodities #Energy
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@EsplanadeAvenu1 @jim98800218 @gummibear737 Yes, because SA is such a honest and open reporter of facts.
Iraq is on the verge of kicking the US out.
Wrong - it is an existential threat regardless of what you, some rando on twitter, may post.
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@urdsama00 @jim98800218 @gummibear737 aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4…
Saudi literally said 2 weeks ago the pipeline is back at full capacity at 7M bpd.
Iraq Kirkuk pipeline is running tests and once that is done they going full throttle.
It's been a big cut, but its no longer an existential threat globally. Just painful.
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The Iran War is so strange
It's like on pause
No new developments...no news
It's my experience with my brother (very high EQ) buying a Persion rug in Istanbul two decades ago
He walked away 4 times...stopped talking for uncomfortably long periods...but he closed the deal
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@gummibear737 Every day of the blockade is like an economic neutron bomb going off over Tehran.
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@gummibear737 The US can't win a wait our war with Iran.
Have you forgotten Iran was in a 8+ year war with Iraq and lost hundreds of thousands of troops?
Iran can outlast the US easily as the US populace won't stand for any serious disruptions.
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@jim98800218 @gummibear737 No, it's not a fixed quantity. But when you reduce the overall world oil production amount by around 15% it's going to have an impact.
For example, US gas usage in the Northeast US went down 5% in MARCH. That is huge; the worst is till to come.
Thus US is fucked.
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Ms Jedi, the amount of global production isn’t a fixed quantity. It’s true ~20% of today’s production goes through the strait but it’s also true Saudi has a pipeline to offset that loss. It’s also true that the USA, Venezuela, Norway can increase production quickly to bring that gap to near 0.
It’s also true that financial institutions, buyers of crude oil, and countries will find stable sources of supply for long term steady supply.
It’s also true Iran is running out of places to store oil which means they’ll have to shut down producing wells which may never return.
Iran is choking its own throat and there isn’t a country in the world that’s willing to back them financially to backstop their terror organizations.
I’m really hoping the Iranian people benefit from this.
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@1CWBE @Fangting2742611 @MahyarTousi Trump has no clue what he is going to do. He is stuck with no good options. He has no plan.
At least Biden and Obama didn't madly rush into a war on behalf of another country.
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@Fangting2742611 @urdsama00 @MahyarTousi Only Trump knows what he is going to do for the long term stability of the region and world economy, unlike Obama and Biden that were into bandaid solutions. So we shall see!
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@EsplanadeAvenu1 @jim98800218 @gummibear737 The SA amount 7M is disputed. Iraq is not bringing anything online due to issues with the US, and the US can't do much to offset Middle East loses.
Sanctions against Russia have been lifted, but that won't help the US or nations that oppose Iran.
Still a big net less globally.
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@urdsama00 @jim98800218 @gummibear737 Saudi is pumping 7M bpd through its pipeline. Iraq about to bring online a 1.7m bpd pipeline. USA up'ed its production by 2M bpd as well as other countries around the world increasing production. Sanctions against Russia can also be lifted for more oil production.
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I don’t want to hear a peep of criticism of President Trump or the First Lady from the Right for the next 6 months.
They’re taking bullets for us.
Keep it to yourself.
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@gummibear737 @AimenDean Why?
The only power they have is via the US.
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We should start paying more attention to the GCC perspective
They hate Iran more than we do
@AimenDean opened my eyes to this...
They've got to live next to these mofos
Open Source Intel@Osint613
Emirati Advisor Anwar Gargash: “Iran acts as if it is a superpower, even when it does not possess nuclear weapons. Imagine if it possessed those weapons!”
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@MAGAVoice Doesn't King Charles have cancer? Might make him look older...
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President Trump is 79… King Charles is 77
Yet President Trump looks much younger
The LEFT can’t stand this
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Why are we allowing China to resupply Iran’s military in the middle of this war?
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This is the way. If you break their economy, you'll break the regime.
Miad Maleki@miadmaleki
Everyone's focused on Iran's crude oil export/extraction disruptions. But there is another real domestic crisis: gasoline. Pre war, Iran was burning through 126 million liters of fuel per day while producing only ~110 million liters domestically. That 15-20M liter/day gap was being covered by imports costing ~$6 billion a year. 1/6 On March 7, strikes hit oil storage depots in Tehran and Alborz Province. ~30 tanks hit in southern Tehran alone. The immediate response: per-fill limits in Tehran cut from 30 liters to 20 liters overnight. Stations reported running dry. Citizens described it as "سهمیهبندی خاموش" or "silent rationing."
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@KenGardner11 It appears you will believe anything, regardless of the source, if it backs you narrative.
Brainwashed.
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But I was reliably informed that these clever Iranians had totally outfoxed Trump. No one considered the possibility that, in fact, has been obvious almost from the very first day: the US is using the facade of "negotiations" to set up the blockade while restocking and reloading.
דרור בלאזאדה | Dror Balazada@DBalazada
BREAKING • Phone contact between Araghchi and American officials has continued in recent days • In the past 24 hours, firm messages have been conveyed from Washington: the United States will not change its position, is not rushing into a deal, and will not compromise on the nuclear issue Three scenarios now being examined in Tehran: • Maintaining the current situation and waiting for a U.S. move • Conceding and reaching an agreement • Deliberate escalation: targeting Gulf states or moves in the Strait of Hormuz Shift in IRGC approach: • Until now, they assessed Trump was under pressure to reach a deal and could be leveraged • His tweets and conduct were interpreted as signs of weakness • A reassessment is now underway: understanding that Trump is not rushing and does not intend to concede Bottom line: Iran is being forced to recalibrate in the face of a far more rigid U.S. position than expected.
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@jim98800218 @gummibear737 Sure, until it hits that no real amount of oil is coming from the Middle East and the US cannot make up the difference.
Then you're fucked.
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@gummibear737 Sometimes being completely aloof and disinterested is the best way to get the seller to show you his best deal. Trump seems to be quite fine playing the long game. He can’t get re-elected anyway.
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