Ryan
25.7K posts







Washington didn’t simply miscalculate its sanctions strategy in the Iran war, it boxed itself completely into a corner. Two months into the Iran War, and global energy markets are short millions of barrels per day. Countries are rapidly facing mounting energy crises, and few options exist to fill the gap. The system still needs volume. Through a series of “temporary” measures, Treasury and OFAC controversially expanded access to Russian oil. General License 134 became 134A, then 134B. With 134B vastly expanding the pool of available energy products from Russia free of sanctions. Prior to these moves, Ural was trading at a discount to Brent. After? As high as a $15/barrel premium. Here’s the reality Washington now faces: There is no scalable replacement for lost Hormuz supply that doesn’t involve Russia. Not Iran. Not the U.S. Not anyone else. What concerns me about this is that there is REALLY only one solution that can stymie that rapidly accelerating energy crisis facing Asia and Oceania: A massive and sweeping unsanctioning of Russian energy. Not as a "strategy". As a desperate move to slap a band-aid on our ill-conceived decision to start this conflict, and Treasury's atrocious wargaming of their economic toolkit. By the White House and Treasury failing to plan and execute throughout this conflict, we are now facing an inevitable long-term replenishment of Russia's war chest the West has spent the past 4.5 years trying to deplete. #Russia #Iran #Oil #StraitOfHormuz #Trump



























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