Ag Competitiveness 🇺🇸

Shameless plug on our book with @APerliger called "The Irrational Terrorist" which discusses some of the most pernicious myths around terrorism and discusses some economic and psychological issues around terrorism. amazon.com/Irrational-Ter…

@lymanstoneky @cdmurph32 What are you claiming?

@cdmurph32 i wonder what you think i'm claiming in the above tweet

air superiority

agweb.com/news/crops/cot… A longer article addressing the current situation in cotton markets.

@Tyne_Ag @EPA Haha. You didn’t say anything about DEF system failures (which is its own problem). You got an ai response based on their database of complaints about DEF. Glad you reached out though.

I reached out to @EPA yesterday about eliminating DEF to help with fertilizer availability/prices in the short-term. This is what they said: “EPA is actively pursuing rulemaking opportunities to further address widespread concerns from farmers, truckers, motor coach operators, and other diesel equipment operators regarding Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) system failures. On February 3, 2026, EPA demanded information from major diesel engine manufacturers on critical data from DEF system failures. The data collected will allow EPA to independently evaluate ongoing system failures and help inform next steps the agency takes in 2026 pertaining to DEF.”

There are mass disinformation campaigns being fomented by foreign actors attempting to adversely affect US markets. Being “edgy” and “antiestablishment” is being used as a vehicle to create turmoil. It doesn’t mean there isn’t information that holds media and the government to account. Just be aware that there are people with interests in spreading disinformation. Be skeptical.

Farmers are experiencing the classic "cost-price squeeze". Prices have not been good for commodities of late...input prices have been high and getting higher. everythinglubbock.com/news/local-new…

Fuel prices are high for all of us, but farmers are being hit by another price increase: Fertilizer. KAMC's Grace Gates spoke with a local grower about the impact its making on the industry. everythinglubbock.com/news/local-new…

@cottonglobal That’s why on an earlier post I said call me when we get to 75 before we start talking added acres.

Depends on where you are and production practices as well as whether you’re talking total or variable. Most estimates I see range between 75 and 82 with elevated cost of inputs. Certainly some can make it on less than that. Also have to factor basis off the ICE futures to get to farm price.

CFTC data show managed money decreasing their short position. Still a good ways from cost of production though...

Dear Arizona: Keep your freaking heat to yourself. Sincerely, Texas

@loucottonballs And great point on yarn. Poly is super cheap relative to cotton, and it will take sustained oil price/byproducts price rises to move the needle.

cotton yarn is still 3x more expensive than poly...We would need sustained oil prices for 2 months or more to move the needle. As of now...PSF supply is quite normal in China.. If the rally materializes, it will be from the spec turning bullish on all row crops and getting back to a normalized positon in my opinion. That normalized level is a net 105k contracts bought fwiw. There is significant hedging taking place already, the set up is there, but catalyst isnt fully realized...YET.. also, I'll be in Lubbock 4/6 and 4/7, if you are around the Overton would love to visit with you

BREAKING: Cotton breaks 70 cents (at least intraday). I always wanted to put "BREAKING" on a post...makes me feel X-important. Is oil driving this? Well, not really. People are conditioned to think that higher oil prices = higher polyester prices. But that relationship has always been pretty weak. Poly is not made directly from crude. It is made from byproducts of the refining process. If you increase refining, more byproducts, cheaper poly. So the real question is not what is the oil price, but how much is being refined. It might be having some psychological effect, but more likely just market momentum and algo trades. Whatever the case, a 7 in the price is an improvement but still well below COP, so not so exciting. Call me when we hit 75 consistently and then we can talk about acreage shifting around. Until then, it's just good to see some upward pressure on price.

@loucottonballs I will be at the PCG annual meeting on 4/7. Let's shoot for a time to meet at the meeting!

@james_acton32 If you know it's an operational briefing and you know that politics is not what an Admiral does, then why post the comment?

I get this is operational briefing and that political effects are not really Gen. Cooper's problem. But wars are fought for political goals, and there's something very Vietnam-ish with reeling off stats about munitions dropped with no sense of those goals.

@pgg421 No. Not really. That relationship is pretty weak anyway. Probably short term lower prices but you never know.

@CompetitiveAg Better question do you see cotton following crude higher at all?

Some see contract highs...I see a gap that has to be filled. Not today, mind you.

This seems scary, but not really. Look at the out months. Bets right now are for a relatively short event. Markets can be wrong (they are made up of people, of course).

@grok @Faith_Lovecode @Breaking911 @urbanguy405 @grok I’ve searched Al Jazeera and CNN and find no confirming story. Can you provide links to those confirmations?

Yes, confirmed by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Rudaw, Kurdistan24, CNN). Pro-Iran Iraqi militias (Saraya Awliya al-Dam / Islamic Resistance in Iraq) claimed drone strikes on US facilities at Erbil airport today in retaliation for US-Israel actions on Iran. Explosions and fire hit near military buildings, with secondary blasts; video matches reported blaze. US: most intercepted, minimal damage, no casualties. Developing.

🚨 Iranian one-way attack drones reportedly struck a U.S. military base in Erbil. A weapons storage facility is ablaze, with multiple secondary explosions and munitions continuing to detonate.

@IranObserver0 Neither is he…

🚨🚨🚨 AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI'S FATWA ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS IS AS OF TODAY NO LONGER IN PLACE

Hey @ChipFlory, sorry, not sorry. I’m sure we will see each other again soon!