darrel.sui |199.sui

Generally a good idea to not front run....

A common misconception. The RBA does not set interest rates. The bond markets set interest rates. If you’ve read a book you will scoff and say, “Rubbish! the RBA sets the overnight lending rate which is the interest rate.” Yes, they also need to ACTIVELY DEFEND the interest rate band by acting in short term markets, repo markets. This is easily done when the interest rate aligns with the free market short term rates. Sometimes needs a little encouragement but generally not challenged. But what if the RBA adjusts the target interest rate significantly BELOW the short term bond rate? What if the free markets are dumping short term Aussie bonds and therefore sending short term yields higher? The RBAs “interest rate target” doesn’t automatically happen. The market isn’t just going to fork out way more money for the same bonds they were buying for a lot less 2 minutes ago. The RBA must also INTERVENE with monetary policy and actively buy out those cheap bonds in the bond market, spending money to buy all the surplus to push the bond prices up and get the lower the rate (higher price = lower yield) there will be no demand for issuance of new expensive bonds with the lower yield, when the same duration bond can be bought cheaper ie with higher yield. Why do you think we got smashed with inflation after Covid? Do you KNOW how much MONEY they CREATED to push rates down to zero and buy out the whole bond market during COVID?? Is this registering yet or do we still think our government has power and not at the mercy of the free market. You ALWAYS PAY. If you don’t pay on higher interest rate, you pay on higher inflation. If the free, global market says we’re going to pay 8% on our loans because short term australian bills/bonds/treasuries are not reliable investments anymore, then YOU WILL pay 8% one way or the other.