Blaz Bratovic
47.5K posts

Blaz Bratovic
@DeepShort7
Personal views. Interested in climate/energy nexus. Sometimes chess-related content. "Trust me, I am an engineer". https://t.co/L7A4Z1Fi5i

We remain resolute. This morning in the Mediterranean, the French Navy intercepted and boarded another vessel from the shadow fleet, the Deyna. The war involving Iran will not deflect France from its support for Ukraine, where Russia’s war of aggression continues unabated. These vessels, which evade international sanctions and violate the law of the sea, are profiteers of war. They line their pockets while helping finance Russia’s war effort. We will not allow it.

Estonia's FM @Tsahkna tells me - - Est is open to discussing joining US op in Hormuz, but needs to know precise aims - Est fully backs US-Isr campaign against Iran - Iran is an enemy of Europe - Est sees Isr as a key defense, cyber partner timesofisrael.com/estonia-is-rea…


Soldiers from Denmark and several European countries keep arriving in Greenland for a military build up in the island

The head of the Heinrich Hertz Institute (HHI) of the Fraunhofer Society - one of Germany and Europe's most prestigious applied research organisations (funded by tax revenue and corporate contracts) has joined Huawei as director of R&D handelsblatt.com/politik/deutsc…



.@NATO has a SecGen problem. The carpet in human form that is @SecGenNATO keeps publicly praising whatever Trump does, being at odds with other NATO members. And this raises expectations in the White House about what NATO should do. But Rutte is supposed to make *all* the member states happy, not just Daddy.



I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…



Vance says Americans should find comfort in the fact that our allies are "suffering more than we are" from high gas prices


@NeoConsAreGreat Let him do troops withdrawal then. He won’t do it cause he needs them for his MENA forever wars. In terms of weapons, we wouldn’t risk the sales as he gets money for it, saying that though a lot of the weapons for Ukraine have been now delayed thanks to the Iran war.

He is not. He is exactly increasing fragmentation by supporting a policy that many member states refuse to endorse and by giving the White House arguments. He should shut up right now and work behind the scenes, not giving public speeches. This is highly problematic and irresponsible.


There is a difference between studying chess and exposing yourself to chess. Watching videos, reading annotations, and scrolling through lines can feel serious while leaving your judgment untouched. The opponent doesn’t care how much you consumed. They care how well you play.

CIA Director Ratcliffe tells HPSCI Iran was unable to enrich "a single kilogram" since Operation Midnight Hammer last June, though Iran hasn't given up quest to make a nuclear weapon.


1/ Denmark was reportedly preparing for full-scale war with the US over Greenland in January, with military support from France, Germany, and Nordic nations. Elite troops and F-35 jets with live ammunition were sent, and runways were to be blown up to prevent an invasion. ⬇️

What evidence has emerged from this war that makes you more confident than you were before that the US would prevail in a Taiwan contingency?


Joint statement from the leaders of 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇮🇹 🇳🇱 🇯🇵 on Strait of Hormuz— “We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.” gov.uk/government/new…



Hegseth: "Our ungrateful allies in Europe, even segments of our own press, should be saying one thing to President Trump -- 'Thank you. Thank you for the courage to stop this terror stage from holding the world hostage while building or attempting to build a nuclear bomb.'"



NEW: UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, & Japan issue joint statement expressing “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts” to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, welcoming nations engaging in prep/planning & coordinating SPR releases and ways to increase output. Calls for Iran to “cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817” Read here: gov.uk/government/new…





