Dustin Olson

A lot of the anti-DEM gerrymander folks keep saying that the proposed VA congressional map would be the most extreme gerrymander in the country. So let's put that to the test using actual political science. The efficiency gap was the standard developed by political scientists during Rucho v. Common Cause (2019). It's not an entirely perfect measurement, as noted in Keena et al., "Gerrymandering the States," because it would technically rate the 2010s Maryland gerrymander as a fair map, for example (though it does show the 2010s Wisconsin gerrymander as an egregious gerrymander!). Keena et al. argue that the mean/median difference is sometimes a better practice; however, for example, it shows the VA gerrymander as a fair map. My standard for measuring how extreme a gerrymander is, or whether a map is gerrymandered at all, is pretty much one standard or the other, depending on which makes sense. In this case, the efficiency gap is the best standard. Using the 2024 presidential results, we can see in DRA 2020 what the efficiency gap is in the enacted/proposed congressional gerrymanders across the country. The closer to 0, the fairer the map using efficiency gaps. Negative favors DEMs, positive favors GOP. Let's take a look. VA: -24.02% NC: 22.55% MO: 17.65% OH: 15.34% CA: -14.92% IL: -14.60% TX: 14.05% NM: -13.98% FL: 11.79% So yes, the proposed VA DEM gerrymander would be the most extreme gerrymander in the country. In fact, it would be more extreme than the 2010s WI Gerrymander that Rucho was all about, which has a 19-point efficiency gap. Only North Carolina comes close to being an egregious gerrymander.

It’s official Republicans flip a seat on the Prince William County Board Lots of turmoil for Dems after old social media posts surfaced for Dem nominee Sef Casin The Dem who lost the nomination mounted a write in campaign Dem vote split and Republican Jeannie LaCroix has won