고정된 트윗
My 2026 Midterm Forecast is live! The House forecast uses a composite formula to estimate margins, while the Senate forecast is based on a predictive model I created.
LINK: ellisbates.substack.com/p/2026-midterm…
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Ellis Bates
797 posts
Ellis Bates
@ElliscbIV
Author of "The State of the Race" Substack, 17 y/o political nerd, views are my own. I also do stuff with @electioncord! Marist ‘30
San Diego, CA 가입일 Haziran 2023
115 팔로잉94 팔로워
@MccainGOP Honestly Dems might be staring down a landslide that rivals 2008 Obama. I’m really worried about Texas…
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Yeah Cruz is done, Trump looks like he's the presumptive nominee. We might be cooked in November
x.com/tenyearsnow/st…
Ten Years Ago Today@tenyearsnow
Donald Trump wins the Arizona primary.
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@NoChildAbuse67 Brown’s populism is great but Acton gets to run on “my opponent is anti-American” slopulism. One might do a bit better in NE OH.
Also, is the Dem machine in OH still alive? Idk…
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@ElliscbIV Idk his populist rhetoric and machine he still has going for him may work
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My 2026 hot takes:
-Hobbs wins AZ gov by over 5
-Collins still wins ME senate
-Either FL or IA will be shockingly close
-Dems get above 235 seats
-Brown will perform on par with or even outrun Acton in OH
-GA zooms left on senate and gov
-one blue state will be shockingly close
McCain Republican@MccainGOP
I have a feeling this will happen: - Collins wins Maine in an upset - North Carolina will be A LOT closer than expected - Ohio won’t be as close as expected - Ossoff wins outright by 50.4%, but the race is still tight - Sununu comes within 4% - Ricketts and Moody win by 10+
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@Saulcialist @davidslosttt This year is a lot more about stellar recruits on the Dem side (Peltola, Cooper, Brown) than a drove of bad ones on the GOP side. They’re running lots of C-tier R’s against A/S-tier Dems. Plus, they got unlucky with their recruiting game (no Gov Sununu & Kemp).
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@davidslosttt Every election since 2018 ET has gone through the same cycle of: upcoming Senate map is bad for Democrats -> Republicans nominate crop of flawed candidates -> Senate becomes winnable by spring of election year
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A nice look back at the Democrats’ outlook post 2024
Nick Field@nick_field90
Tough to see how Democrats find four pick-ups on the 2026 Senate map. So unless there's some strange vacancies or upsets, Republicans will have at least four years of judicial appointments
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@davidslosttt This comment was cooking tho:
31’s Tweets@31stweets
@nick_field90 Maine: if Collins retires. NC: Roy Cooper. LA: John Bel Edwards. KS: Laura Kelly. IA: Rob Sand. MT: Jon Tester. OH: Sherrod Brown. AK: Mary Peltola. That roster of Senate candidates in 2026 would put R’s on defense in too many places
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To put this into perspective, Trump’s approval % is tracking just 3.5% higher than Biden’s *post-debate low* of 36% in July ‘24. He’s also fallen behind Biden’s term wide average of 42.2%. So all in all, completely radioactive.
ElectionCord@ElectionCord
President Trump's approval rating now sits at 39.5% (net rating of -16.9%) after a small bump. Compared to: 1 week ago: -13.6% 1 month ago: -18.7% 3 months ago: -13.9% 6 months ago: -11.4% 1 year ago: -4.6% Trump's 1st term at this point: -15% (per NYT)
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Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV
@NoChildAbuse67 True! Just gonna have to wait and see what happens, but I will say that the FL specials have been looking good for Dems. The GA model is skewed R rn due to a lack of polling out of the state resulting in Kemp’s popularity as a variable being overrepresented. It’ll change!
QME
Haven’t seen many people talking about it, but Florida’s gov race could be competitive. Dems have a strong recruit in Jolly, and Donalds isn’t nearly as popular as Ron DeSantis was.
My forecast model currently has Donalds up by just 2.2%.
LINK: ellisbates.substack.com/p/2026-midterm…
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@NoChildAbuse67 Ran out of character in the last message-
NV is looking good for R’s for a variety of reasons:
- past election results (‘24, ‘22), and a lack of a significant leftward trend in the state (‘24)
- Lombardo’s popularity
- favorable polling for R’s so far
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@NoChildAbuse67 True! Just gonna have to wait and see what happens, but I will say that the FL specials have been looking good for Dems.
The GA model is skewed R rn due to a lack of polling out of the state resulting in Kemp’s popularity as a variable being overrepresented. It’ll change!
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@NoChildAbuse67 Fair, it’s hard for me to see Blorida too in this day and age. What the model is picking up on though is the potential for big swings in the Hispanic vote pushing Florida back into the realm of competitiveness. It’s certainly possible.
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@ElliscbIV I really like your model, but I just don’t see it tbh. Florida is dominated by MAGA loving old people which is the prime electorate for someone like Donalds.
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Ellis Bates 리트윗함
-an account called track AIPAC should track.... AIPAC contributions/spend
-very liberal with "this candidate is pro Israel ⚠️", label, it assumes this is a binary world with no nuance and there's no room between pro-Israel and anti-Israel
-lack of constancy + shifting goalposts
Casey Kennedy@trackcaseyk
While we have always tracked the entire Israel lobby, we have always based our red and green graphics on both the individual's donations *and* their legislative record (if available) and/or public statements/policy positions. We hear the critique that this part (funding + policy) is not as clear to people. And that's fair. So we are working on a new graphic design that will more clearly reflect both and address this concern.
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Ellis Bates 리트윗함
RT if you have more followers than this AIPAC funded moron
Tahesha Way@WayforCongress
New Jersey, I’m not going anywhere. I will continue to fight side by side with you.
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Cornyn’s been trying to court Trump’s endorsement by leaning on electability, but Trump doesn’t seem to be buying it.
A sign that either:
a) Paxton will get his backing
b) He’ll endorse both
c) He’ll stay neutral
All those scenarios would guarantee Paxton the nomination.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
President Trump says any human being running against Talarico would win in Texas on Truth Social. Trump has yet to make an endorsement in the Republican primary for US Senate in Texas. Runoff between Cornyn and Paxton in May 26.
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Ellis Bates 리트윗함
@ElliscbIV @ATPMstealsO2 Kansas is not trending blue lol. Maybe a couple of counties are but not the state as a whole
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My 2026 hot takes:
- KS & AK gov are unreasonably close
- OH & IA gov flip blue, but senate stays red
- TX-SEN is bluer than 2018
- GA-SEN votes to the left of MI-SEN
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favorite red state: alaska
least favorite red state: ohio (florida close second)
favorite swing state: tie between michigan and georgia
least favorite swing state: arizona
favorite blue state: virginia (new york close second)
least favorite blue state: new mexico
ZFlawless 🇺🇦🇵🇸🌉@ZFlawles1s
favorite red state: florida least favorite red state: west virginia favorite swing state: nevada least favorite swing state: michigan favorite blue state: california least favorite blue state: new hampshire
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Ellis Bates 리트윗함
People re-litigating this primary like it was some heartbreaking squeaker is so funny to me
Fetterman won by 32 pts, carrying every single county
He wasn’t some secret moderate who duped everyone into thinking he was progressive
He was a fundamentally different guy pre-stroke
Rob Wood@MediawatchNw
The Democrats of Pennsylvania could have had Conor Lamb as their Senator but instead looked at a big doofy guy in a hoodie and decided they preferred a guy who looked and acted more like them than an educated attorney with military experience. This mess is all on you guys.
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