Ellis Bates

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Ellis Bates

Ellis Bates

@ElliscbIV

Election Analysis Fellow @VoteHub. Forecasts & occasional writing on Substack. MI roots, CA native. Marist '30 🦊

San Diego, CA Katılım Haziran 2023
777 Takip Edilen3K Takipçiler
Ellis Bates retweetledi
Michael
Michael@Socdem_Michael·
I highly doubt Ohio will be callable for hours. Either way it will be “too close to call” until like midnight at the earliest. But we will probably have a good idea about who is in a better position by like 9-10 EST. It 100% won’t be a race called immediately after polls close. Same with Texas most likely. And if Texas is razor thin, we won’t get a race call until the next day most likely.
Red Eagle Politics@RedEaglePatriot

We will probably know who wins the Senate by around 8:15 PM Eastern time If GOP takes Ohio and Texas, it’s over for Dems. Only question is if they can make it 50/50.

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Ellis Bates
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV·
Non-college educated voters being just six points to the right of the nation’s overall party affiliation is stunning to see here. It also tracks with battleground Senate polling showing sizable Democratic gains among that group.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024

Pew Research Center poll | released 7/14 Party affiliation for 2026 (crosstabs, net) 🟦Overall: D+4 —— Race 🟥White: R+15 🟦Black: D+60 🟦Hispanic: D+28 🟦Asian: D+27 —— Age group 🟦Age 18-29: D+15 🟦Age 30-49: D+8 🟥Age 50-64: R+6 🟦Age 65+: D+1 —— Gender 🟥Men: R+6 🟦Women: D+14 —— Education 🟥No College: R+2 🟦College: D+16

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Ellis Bates
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV·
@neeratanden Two things: 1) 15% vs. 21% is a notable difference. The latter is approaching a quarter of prospective Democratic voters. 2) I’ve been quite clear that both El-Sayed and Stevens present unique electoral risks opposite each other.
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV

@AndrewDahDude We’ll see. For now, I think El-Sayed and Stevens would perform roughly on par for opposite reasons, with both likely underperforming the national environment.

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Neera Tanden🌻
Neera Tanden🌻@neeratanden·
I wonder why you’re not worried about roughly the same percent of people who have a negative view of El-Sayed staying home in November. How about the very poor performance of El-Sayed with working class voters? Any worry that such weakness in the primary is a big problem in the general in Michigan? This is neutral analysis, correct?
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV

Favorability was also tested, with El-Sayed holding a 7-point net advantage over Stevens. Half of Democrats under 40 and Democratic Socialists view Stevens unfavorably. If some of those voters stay home in November, it could severely complicate her path to victory.

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ettingermentum
ettingermentum@ettingermentum·
This is the big and defining difference between this race and the DSA insurgent wins. Electability wasn’t a factor in any of those contests. It’s a defining issue here, which makes AES’s strength so remarkable.
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV

The salience of the electability argument was also tested as a motivating factor for Democratic voters. It ranked second, 14 points behind the top factor: voting for a “fighter” best positioned to stand up to Trump.

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Ellis Bates
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV·
@AndrewDahDude We’ll see. For now, I think El-Sayed and Stevens would perform roughly on par for opposite reasons, with both likely underperforming the national environment.
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Andrew
Andrew@AndrewDahDude·
@ElliscbIV Ultimately I think Stevens is more solid electorally. Almost all left-wing voters are gonna come home as they usually do, and elections are won and lost with moderates and independents. Steven's unfavorability in her party will vanish the moment she's nominated.
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Ellis Bates
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV·
Favorability was also tested, with El-Sayed holding a 7-point net advantage over Stevens. Half of Democrats under 40 and Democratic Socialists view Stevens unfavorably. If some of those voters stay home in November, it could severely complicate her path to victory.
Ellis Bates tweet media
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV

Another interesting poll tidbit: each candidate's coalition. Stevens leads in the Detroit metro and among Black, older, and non-college voters. El-Sayed leads outstate, among union households, and with White, younger, and college-educated voters.

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Ellis Bates
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV·
@AndrewDahDude Agreed. There’s no slam dunk option in this race to prevent Rogers from winning. Both El-Sayed and Stevens present unique electoral vulnerabilities.
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Andrew
Andrew@AndrewDahDude·
@ElliscbIV This works both ways though, leftists aren't special. If El-Sayed wins the primary and black voters don't turn out for him (or if moderates vote for Rogers), it'd really complicate things for him.
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Ellis Bates
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV·
@neeratanden Adding this poll to the May, June, and July average of El-Sayed +4.2 (excluding El-Sayed/Stevens internals) narrows his *lead* to 2.2 points.
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Ellis Bates
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV·
Another interesting poll tidbit: each candidate's coalition. Stevens leads in the Detroit metro and among Black, older, and non-college voters. El-Sayed leads outstate, among union households, and with White, younger, and college-educated voters.
Ellis Bates tweet media
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV

The salience of the electability argument was also tested as a motivating factor for Democratic voters. It ranked second, 14 points behind the top factor: voting for a “fighter” best positioned to stand up to Trump.

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Ellis Bates
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV·
The salience of the electability argument was also tested as a motivating factor for Democratic voters. It ranked second, 14 points behind the top factor: voting for a “fighter” best positioned to stand up to Trump.
Ellis Bates tweet media
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV

Glengariff has been Stevens' best pollster, likely due to its tendency to oversample the Detroit metro. It shows her lead growing five points since McMorrow's exit. However, it's also their first poll where she doesn't hold a clear lead among definite voters.

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Ellis Bates retweetledi
Luke Wines
Luke Wines@lukewines·
Think we've got Texas wrong? Here’s a quick look at adjusting the VoteHub forecast and building your own in MapLab:
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Ellis Bates
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV·
One of Jackson’s biggest liabilities has been his often lackluster communication skills. This debate is a major test for him and a chance for Shah and Bellows to gain traction.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024

Politico: Maine Democrats will square off in Senate debate Thursday at 7:00 PM ET It’ll be their first and potentially only public face-off ahead of the July 25 nomination convention to replace Graham Platner as the Senate nominee. The debate will run for 90 minutes and be televised statewide on stations WCSH 6 and WLBZ 2. politico.com/news/2026/07/1…

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Adam Wren
Adam Wren@adamwren·
First in @playbookdc: @AbdulElSayed will report over $4.5 million raised in the second quarter — the biggest quarterly haul of the campaign since its launch.
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Ellis Bates
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV·
Genuinely surprised to see El-Sayed overtake Talarico for the top spot on ActBlue. Given Talarico's fundraising, it seemed like he had an iron grip on first place. Makes me skeptical of the idea that Stevens has the momentum edge. Both campaigns appear to be closing strong.
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Ellis Bates
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV·
Which of these two Senate races will vote to the left of the other?
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Ellis Bates
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV·
Factoring out the El-Sayed internals, the result still matches his 4.2-point lead in the average of publicly available aggregates above. Again, when discussing who leads, VoteHub does not publish primary polling averages. This analysis of mine is based on publicly available polling data.
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Keşfet

@neeratanden @AndrewDahDude @playbookdc @AbdulElSayed @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano