FMT Investment Advisory
9.4K posts

FMT Investment Advisory
@FMTadvisory
A Fiduciary Asset Manager for the New Economy -https://t.co/Spa6rwM6Xx









Every country has been burning through emergency stockpiles to mask the shortage. JP Morgan & Kpler data shows the last Gulf shipments reached their destinations between April 8–19. That window is now closed. The buffer is gone. The real shock starts now.

Bitcoin is a rising-floor option. • Spot: $78K • Structural floor: $60K • Current downside to floor: $18K = 23.1% • Power-law exponent: 5.7 • Floor reaches $78K in ~0.81 years = ~9.8 months That changes the lattice. In a normal option tree, the lower branch stays exposed. In Bitcoin’s tree, the floor rises: • Year 0 floor: $60.0K • Year 1 floor: $82.7K • Year 2 floor: $111.9K • Year 3 floor: $149.3K • Year 5 floor: $255.1K So the lower tail is not static. It is being lifted by time. That makes BTC more valuable as an option because: • upside stays open • downside compresses • bad outcomes shrink with time At $78K, the downside cushion to floor is only $18K today. If price goes nowhere and the model holds, that cushion disappears in ~10 months. That is the asymmetry: Time does not just pass. Time raises the floor. #Bitcoin $BTC #real-options









Vibe-trading digital oil is like vibe-hedging in treasuries during Hormuz risk-off. Both share one house of cards that works on paper. Difference: oil at least has Dated Brent. Treasuries? Vibes all the way down. EUCRBRDT Index GP <GO>









