DataFramed

358 posts

DataFramed

DataFramed

@FramedData

A Canadian economist interested in history, data, demographics, politics and culture.

가입일 Şubat 2022
229 팔로잉62 팔로워
DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@robinhanson My theory is that the right doesn’t actually exist. It’s too gauche in polite circles to say welfare spending is bad and immigration is too high, so in practice they demur and the right is just the Center left. Just take the label off conservative governments and you can’t tell
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Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson@robinhanson·
Does the right ever do anything these days? Or the far-left? Because all I ever hear about in the media today is the moderate-left and the far-right.
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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@Noahpinion And anti-abortion is the rightist cause that stymies all other conservative causes
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Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@Noahpinion·
Palestine is the leftist cause that eats all the progressive causes, and anti-immigration is the rightist cause that eats all the conservative causes
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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@SteveSaretsky In Toronto, but really across the country, we have rising months of housing inventory (6mo plus for TO condo). How much higher would this be corrected for delistings? I.E. how much shadow inventory is out there? Feels like another 20% drawdown is already baked in.
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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@nathanallebach I think right NIMBYs would flip to YIMBY (for many reasons including freedom, raising fertility, etc), IFF we were much more aggressive about crime. So much is downstream of people not wanting to expose their kids to crime.
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Nathan Allebach
Nathan Allebach@nathanallebach·
Urbanists are accustomed to arguing with left-NIMBYs on Twitter due to the proximity between centrist, liberal, and leftist communities, but in most places, right-wing NIMBYs like this guy make up the VAST majority of local residents who block new housing from being built.
Upstate Federalist@upstatefederlst

Yes, four stacked triplexes with Section 8 renters would ruin the neighborhood. You don't have to imagine, you just have to look literally anywhere.

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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@nonebusinesshey Key questions are whether Hispanics will come to identify as white over time and raise white fertility in the process and whether southern states effectively ban abortion and whether this induces a behavioural response.
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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@maisey_robert @MikePMoffatt Possible, but unlikely. In a country without access to high immigration like Japan they invest in labour saving capital so that GDP per worker/working age rises rapidly. Check out the chart above.
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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@SteveSaretsky You would know better than me, but I suspect that the economic realities which would prompt BoC cuts would also cause spreads between govt and mortgage rates to widen as banks hunker down.
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Steve Saretsky
Steve Saretsky@SteveSaretsky·
Sentiment check. In 6-12 months from now a 5 year fixed rate mortgage in Canada will be?
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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@culturaltutor High density, but explicitly designed to maximize amenities for children (including large square footage homes) and the compete extirpation of crime/criminals. In the modern west density means disorder and anti-natalist design.
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The Cultural Tutor
The Cultural Tutor@culturaltutor·
These are not the only options and we don't have to choose only one of them when we design our cities, but the question of *how* we should build is eternal. So what do we need in the 21st century — more Low Density or more High Density?
The Cultural Tutor tweet media
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The Cultural Tutor
The Cultural Tutor@culturaltutor·
"Urban Density" is a concept which completely changes how cities feel. Low Density is more peaceful and has more space and privacy, but High Density is livelier, walkable, and creates stronger communities. Where would you rather live?
The Cultural Tutor tweet media
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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@MikePMoffatt If rapid population growth causes slower gdp per capita growth by deskilling the economy (see immigrant earnings in recent decades), I don’t count that as an advantage.
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Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅
Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅@MikePMoffatt·
Canada is a real outlier in so many ways. We've got some really big demographic advantages, due in part to how quickly our population has grown relative to the rest of the G7.
Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 tweet media
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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@cremieuxrecueil Fascinating, do you know of such studies for Canada? Self reported indigenous ancestry has roughly tripled since 1990.
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Crémieux
Crémieux@cremieuxrecueil·
It's amusing how, wherever there are a lot of people who think they might have Native American ancestry, people overestimate how much they have. In the ABCD, the average "Native American" has 80% European, 9% Native American, and 8% African ancestry. Here's data for Argentina:
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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@EricDLombardi In Canada population growth is a policy choice. There is a way to have our cake and eat it, we’re just too polite to entertain the notion.
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Eric Lombardi (EricForOLP.ca) 🇨🇦🚀
Eric Lombardi (EricForOLP.ca) 🇨🇦🚀@EricDLombardi·
Canadas urban Gentry cannot have their cake and eat it too. As housing anger boils over in this country, the wealthiest neighbourhoods that have shunned growth for decades will be reformed. It’s only a matter of time.
Josh "Tax+Spend" Messmer 🐝☀️🇨🇦@JoshMessmer

This is the perfect image to make nimbys and yimbys both think their positions are obviously correct ("look what we'd become!" vs "look what they've taken from us!")

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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@EricDLombardi Federal government controls OSFI, pandemic stim, and immigration numbers and therefore demand. If voters have signalled they are NIMBYs provincially, shouldn’t the feds set other policies such that our society isn’t destroyed for young families?
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Eric Lombardi (EricForOLP.ca) 🇨🇦🚀
Eric Lombardi (EricForOLP.ca) 🇨🇦🚀@EricDLombardi·
Canadian Provinces are the problem level of government in this country. The only and I emphasize ONLY REASON for the housing accelerator fund is that the provinces haven’t reformes municipal land use and planning systems themselves.
Rob Shaw@RobShaw_BC

One of the more interesting things to come out of Council of Federation meeting with premiers today is call on Ottawa to stop signing one-off housing funding deals with munis (ex: housing accelerator fund) and put money through provinces first. Provinces considering legislation.

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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@geoeconomic10 @lurker66379608 Countries that have become addicted to immigration have lower fertility rates, but what if the causality runs the other way? Immigration puts huge strain on housing costs for young families and destroys national identity, the continuance of which was a motivator for fertility.
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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@wanyeburkett We made a comfortable retirement the responsibility of other peoples kids instead of our own via the welfare state, culture doesn’t award parenthood status especially for men, and technology makes the opportunity cost higher.
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Michael Brendan Dougherty
Michael Brendan Dougherty@michaelbd·
So after that Judi Dench reading, what poem rattles around in your head most of all?
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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@MoreBirths For the US: large scale Hispanic immigration and the payback of tempo effects which lowered fertility in the 1980s. Not sure about baby boom either to be honest. Did completed fertility move much? I thought it was all about tempo impacts of the war.
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More Births
More Births@MoreBirths·
As awareness of the global low fertility crisis has grown, many seem fatalistic, accepting decline because "no country has ever come back from below-replacement fertility." Actually, plenty of countries have done just that! Let's look at those cases! 🧵, please share and follow!
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DataFramed
DataFramed@FramedData·
@Aaronal16 Are they now living in the west? The decline implies that Christians are ~30% of all Syrian refugees in the west.
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Demographics Now & Then
Demographics Now & Then@Aaronal16·
While the Assad regime eventually regained the upper hand and took back almost all regions except Idlib and border areas in the north the damage to the Christian community was done. A once large and ancient prewar community of 2M was gutted and less than 800,000 remain today.
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Demographics Now & Then
Demographics Now & Then@Aaronal16·
Every once in a while I feel the need to comment on how much of a disaster our nations policy towards the Middle East has been for the regions Christians. Before the Iraq war there were around 1M Christians. Before the civil war in Syria 2M Christians lived there. 🧵
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탐색

@robinhanson @Noahpinion @SteveSaretsky @eyeslasho @nathanallebach @MikePMoffatt @culturaltutor @cremieuxrecueil