Steve Saretsky

New condo sales in Metro Vancouver are tracking even lower than last year, like 50% lower. The pre-sale condo market is completely dead.

@ExnerPirot @RichardDias_CFA @IceCapGlobal You crushed it. Thank you

I had a great chat with the guys at the Loonie Hour about pipelines, oil, nuclear, critical minerals... all the things. Canada's Energy Boom is Upon Us💥 @SteveSaretsky @RichardDias_CFA @IceCapGlobal youtu.be/xg2FdU2zqzY?si…

@RichardDias_CFA Hedge funds

Foreign Holdings of Government of Canada bonds is growing.

What’s the combined for sale and rental pipeline? And how does that compare to when there were more for sale and less rental in the pipeline? Curious if this is a net increase (my guess) or a shift in asset class (even though the for sale stuff was often sold to a rental investor)

Still 180k rental units in the construction pipeline with little to no population growth. Have to think shelter inflation should continue to move lower.

Bank of Canada forecasting an increase in residential investment despite "a large stock of unsold small condominiums in Toronto and Vancouver." Say it ain't so.

Reporter shits on the Bank of Canada’s economic outlook. Finally some hardball questions from the media.

RBC estimates Canada’s four big oil sands companies will generate - *just in Q2* - $6.9 billion in royalties and $4.4 billion in taxes. On top of which they generated $13.2 billion in free funds flow. The gift that keeps on giving, and now being positioned for a second supercycle 📈 H/T @garquake

@khzny 😂

@SteveSaretsky Returned $14m. I assume by selling $28m of btc.

Rinsed

@rmohamed_yow LOL spot on

Dunno how I feel about this remake of Trailer Park Boys set in Vancouver. Who even asked for a buff Randy?

@JShamess Jer did you just call the bottom?

Positive news never gets clicks but we are seeing a bottom very clearly now in many asset classes in Toronto. We need three quarters of positive data to call it a trend. Save seeing a wildcard in H1 2027 you’ll see real positive signs moving forward. 1. Apartment building (multifamily) number of transactions are up 100% exactly in this same time period. 2. Development land although crushed where DC incentives, HST, land values have decreased and construction costs have decreased to the point that you can build and can break even with development management fees with bulk condo pricing (which is lowest value for resale) 3. Residential rents for PBR (professional landlords) are now flat (yes with incentives but incentives were always there). Examples of massive absorption still happening. Ie North York tower leased 120 units at $4 PSF to $4.55 PSF in 2.5 months 4. The target for immigration is still positive. Immigration converting Non permanent to permanent. 5. Townhouse new home sales are selling st levels not seen in years 6. Office building sales have stabilized 7. Anecdotally, Universities are seeing changes in their 2026-2027 enrollment This large reduction is trying to reduce temporary non-permanent residents from 7% to less than 5% However this never discusses those that are made permanent residents which is where “growth” will come in. Most are already here and in total the target is 380,000 Watching Benjamin Tal at CIBC, Urbanation Inc. for rents and Zonda Urban for their construction supply via satellite analyzing the data more closely.

@sitkamedia @ThomasDigby1 @KenSimCity Short everything this guy touches

Park Board Chair @ThomasDigby1 counters Mayor @KenSimCity’s claim that there’s widespread demand to do away with the reservation system at Kits Pool: “There are hundreds of people that like to book online.”

@Sean_Speer I suspect Vancouver is quite similar

I was playing around with some demographic data this weekend and increasingly think one of the biggest socio-political developments in Canada is the outmigration of families with children from Toronto. The largest groups leaving the GTA are adults in their late 20s and 30s and their young children. In the most recent data, children under 5 were among the biggest cohorts of net out-migrants. Adults aged 25-39 were right there with them. Toronto is the country’s cultural, economic, and political capital. A city that exports parents and children while importing immigrants, students and young professionals will inevitably develop different preferences and sensibilities. I used to think a lot about the urban-rural divide. But the more interesting one over the next decade may be between places that retain families and places that lose them.

CHART OF THE DAY: The history of China's consumption of fossil fuels, from 1965 to 2025. Although as a share of total energy, fossil fuels has seen a decline, in absolute terms (in tonnes of coal, barrels of oil, and cubic meters of gas) demand set an all-time high last year.

@SteveSaretsky How is sending bitumen to China the "well-being" of the enitire country when BC also doesn't receive any royalties of TMX which also happens to be 34.2 billion in debt and owe taxpayers 50B and are asking for that to be written off entirely for the foreign owned corporations?

Canada, where one First Nations group can stymie a project that is in the well being of the entire country.

It’s a bailout, but we need details of the bailout before calling it a bailout. Big brain thinking.

@AmazingZoltan @fabulavancouver Exactly

"Rent to own" doesn't work anywhere. It's not a real thing. No one does it. Anywhere — outside of a dozen people somewhere in the Maritimes once upon a time. That is one reason there are literally ZERO national statistics on its uptake in Canada. CMHC abandoned its own "rent-to-own" program years ago.

Everyone is focused on which developer is getting bailed out, yet they should be asking who has the most exposure to condo construction? Why is Eby focused on product outside the city? Keep an eye on the BC credit unions.