Generalist Lab

Annual portfolio overview. US Positions discussed: $XYZ, $NET, $APPS, $INTC, $CDNS, $AMZN, $ALAB, $KSPI (+elevator pitch) Other: $RIGD, AKO1L, VLP1L, EWA1L, SFG1T, MDARA Also comments on painful loss exits: $IAC, $EVO and US, Baltic market outlooks. generalistlab.com/insights/finan…

@realroseceline $CME dies charge for data. It's 12% of total revenue, growing 13% YoY.

I keep coming back to how good this whole “financial tollbooth space” is. Businesses companies like $SPGI, $MCO, $MSCI, and $FICO all embedded in the system and take a small cut every time money moves or decisions get made. Since they are asset light and don’t require much capital, a lot of the revenue turns into cash and it is a great economic model. $SPGI and $MCO are great because they’re tied to credit markets. If companies want to issue debt or investors want to understand risk, they’re part of that process. It’s hard to replace them once they’re embedded. $FICO is similar in terms of quality. It has a very strong position and great economics, but it’s closer to the consumer so when it pushes pricing too hard, attract unwanted attention. It’s still a great business, just a bit more exposed. $CME is a different kind of tollbooth. It doesn’t charge for data or ratings, it charges for activity. Every time someone trades futures or hedges risk, $CME takes a cut. The beautiful part is that volatility actually helps them. When markets get messy, volumes go up, and so does revenue. So instead of being hurt by uncertainty, they benefit from it. There are more businesses in this category like $ICE, $LESG, $NDAQ, etc. But $MSCI is the one that stands out to me. On paper, the numbers might look similar, but the type of pricing power is different. $MSCI doesn’t charge individuals or even single institutions in a meaningful way. Its fees are spread across trillions of dollars tied to benchmarks, so almost no one feels the increase directly. That makes its pricing power less noticeable, and because of that it’s better and more durable. What’s interesting is the meaningful insider buying stock in the open market at prices not far from where it trades today. That’s not something you see often in already well understood, high quality businesses. So I really do think this financial tollbooth space is a great place to invest. $SPGI, $MCO, $CME, and $FICO are all excellent. But even with all that, I still come back to $MSCI as my favorite. The pricing power is just more elite. Fees are spread across trillions tied to benchmarks, so no one really feels them, and flows come automatically through passive investing and asset allocation. It’s simple, embedded, and very extremely hard to disrupt. 🌹

While we remain deeply skeptical, let's assume that today is "the day after." What does it mean for energy stocks??? 🛢️the glut narrative is dead as global oil inventories will continue to fall over the next several months, approaching "normalized" levels in the next 2 weeks and still likely all-time lows by ~ end of May (product rationing/shortages still imminent) = higher baseline for fundamental floor price ($70-$80WTI vs $60 before?) 🛢️what will prevent Iran from ever doing this again (halting flows through the most important energy chokepoint in the world with a $30,000 drone)? = political risk premium of $10-20/bbl ADDED onto the new floor price = ~$80WTI? 🛢️production shut-ins remain at ~11MM Bbl/d...for this to return we need tankers to leave the Strait, empty, and return (~2.5-3 months) = enduring impact even IF the Strait fully opens (500MM+ Bbls!)...the prospect for formation damage is not zero (especially in Iraq) and lead time to full restoration long even with adequate offtake (Kuwait said 3-4 months to normalize production) 🛢️still TBD extensive damage to refining capacity = expect higher-for-longer crack spreads and windfall for refiners/integrateds...product stocks were already low coming into the "excursion"...will take years to normalize 🛢️will the Saudis and Emirates allow Iran to "toll" the SofH and have a de facto chokehold on flows? Seems unlikely and new pipeline bypasses would take years 🛢️the ~400MM Bbl SPR release will be refilled = future demand for several years (~350k Bbl/d for 3 years?) 🛢️energy is once again relevant to large generalist US investors and many would have been hesitant to chase the recent rally = sector is now much more investable 🛢️net/net - we still believe $80WTI is reasonable for 2027, with many stocks trading at 15% FCF yields, and some even lower than when the war began Summary: we believe that oil remains in a multi-year bull market and stocks were never discounting the recent oil price spike. Production growth will remain muted, share buybacks will continue, and our favourite names at $80WTI will be able to retire 30%-50% of their outstanding shares over the next 5 years while retaining 30-50+ years of stay-flat inventory at a time when non-OPEC production is peaking and pre-conflict OPEC spare capacity is low.

@stengel False abstraction. Pedo is not following a constitution, never did. Probably never even read it.

An American president threatening the death of an ancient civilization is in some ways the end of the 250-year moral experiment of a constitutional republic that the framers saw as a model for all mankind.

💥What we’ve all feared is happening: Hungarian Russia expert András Rácz wrote three days ago about a potential Russia-backed false flag attack in Serbia targeting the gas pipeline to Hungary. The same information had already reached multiple journalists, including myself, weeks earlier, from sources connected to Hungarian government circles. Now Viktor Orbán has announced that Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić informed him about “explosives of devastating power” found at the gas pipeline connecting the two countries. Orbán and his propaganda machine are already amplifying the news everywhere, with the prime minister convening his security cabinet. It remains unclear what measures the government might take using this alleged false flag operation as a pretext. But if the second part of the information we received also proves true, Orbán could declare a state of emergency, significantly affecting the election campaign—which he is currently losing—and potentially disrupting the organization of the April 12 election. The opposition Tisza Party has been widening its lead to 15–20 points, if not more. Orbán accuses them of being "Ukrainian agents" for months. His propaganda would very soon link the Serbian false-flag both to Ukraine and the Tisza Party, I have no doubts about that. I encourage all foreign reporters covering the Hungarian election to pay close attention and not fall for the government’s propaganda or the narratives pushed by its pundits on the Orbán government payroll, including here on X. The situation could soon be very serious.

"Police is as good as it's informants" - The Wire writers. It's non public data, that adds to analytical edge.

New photo of Earth taken from Artemis II.

@BeRatedCrypto @sentdefender

According to the New York Times, the Iranian-backed Iraqi group, Kataib Hezbollah, not to be confused with Lebanese Hezbollah, has offered to negotiate with the Iraqi government for the release of kidnapped American journalist, Shelly Kittleson. The group demands the release of some of their detained militia members in exchange for her release. Kittleson was kidnapped this past Tuesday in Baghdad, Iraq.

Since Liberation Day, a year ago today: * US foreign direct investment is lower * US factories employ 89,000 fewer people * US goods trade deficit is UP 2% npr.org/2026/04/02/nx-…

That's a new one for me: "One hypothesis about why the US went into the war on the side of the UK, rather than the Germans, was simply that its bankers had lent the English more money" Bonner Research

@overton_news Last time he talked his mind freely was in Davos 2026 January. 2 days later:

🚨 JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon just FIRED BACK at Axios CEO Jim VandeHei for calling Trump’s Iran operation a “war of choice.” “Yeah, I would step back on that one a little bit, when you say its a ‘war of choice.’” Despite market volatility, Dimon DEFENDED the president’s decision to take decisive action against a regime that’s been killing Americans for decades. VANDEHEI: “China’s been a big beneficiary of our war in Iran.” “It is a war of choice.” “Are we giving, are we handing sort of this golden opportunity to China and to Russia?” DIMON: “Yeah, I would step back on that one a little bit, when you say its a ‘war of choice.’” “I’ve heard a lot of people say there was no imminent threat and the threat means that it hasn’t happened yet, the bad thing hasn’t happened.” “They’ve been killing people around the world for 45 plus years.” “They’ve killed a lot of Americans.” “They funded not just Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis.” “They have terrorist cells here.” “They were about to get their ballistic missiles, which I think you just found out, can go almost 3000 miles now.” “They never gave up nuclear.” “THEY WERE BAD.” “so I don’t look at this like...does it create all this uncertainty? Absolutely.” “Does it create more short-term risk for the oil prices? Absolutely.” “I’m praying it ends well.”

Citrini semi analyst: "CPU-to-GPU ratio in AI servers has risen from 1:12 to 1:8, with a target of 1:4, meaning the share of CPU procurement is increasing"

2/ the jewelry had to pass through U.S. customs" Pandora expects U.S. tariffs to take 150 bps off its operating margin in 2026 $PNDORA

1/ Danish jewelry Pandora opens distribution centre in Ontario, Canada to reduce exposure to US tariffs "Warehouse in Mississauga will enable the brand to process Canadian online orders, which were previously handled by U.S. distribution centers meaning ..

I'm sure it's to bring the medals and trophies from all the winning.

AI "bubble" pop got delayed. OpenAI raised $122B.

Finally live - Bitcoin LN enabled instant transactions between cashapp and Square merchants. Merchants save 2.5-3.5% on every transaction. Incentive is there to drive cashapp adoption, via cashbacks, promotions. $xyz