고정된 트윗
H
2.5K posts
It blows my mind that the U.S. has the world's brightest entrepreneurs, CEOs, and scientists, yet the presidential candidates over the last decade have been Biden, Trump, Harris, and Clinton.
Something must be terribly wrong with the system.
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Genuine question, who is buying SpaceX at $2 trillion - 125x sales?
SpaceX did $16bn in revenue in 2025. A $2tn valuation requires ~$150bn in free cash flow.
At a generous 20% FCF margin, that means $750bn in revenue.
Getting there from $16bn in 10 years requires 47% annual growth. Every year. For a decade.
Nice assumption to grow into your multiple
Polymarket@Polymarket
BREAKING: The SpaceX IPO is now projected to close above $2 trillion after the announcement of TERAFAB. 55% chance.
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Worth asking: are the Saudis escalating because Iran is holding firm or because they smell blood?
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher
Not many appreciate that not only the US-Saudi relationship eclipses almost every other, but also that Trump and MBS have been personal friends for decades. Petrodollar was never under threat. Now, we are about to have a real army capable of conducting ground ops against Iran.
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$AAOI Fck! and here I was nibbling at the close!!
Banshee@DeNebulord
This is a bearish engulfing candle $aaoi After selling 30% of my position at $122, I took another 15-20% or so off at $100 yesterday Whether we like it or not, it seems like $aaoi is going to $73ish (the $nbis playbook) I'm indifferent. If it goes up, my port is happy, if it goes to the $70s, I get to buy more on the cheap
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Man kills everyone then wonders why he can't talk with anyone anymore
You can't make this shit up
zerohedge@zerohedge
*TRUMP: WE WANT TO TALK TO IRAN, THERE IS NOBODY TO TALK TO
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@mattscottcap What if the other co-founder is running US covert ops??? lmao
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Am I the only one that thinks $SMCI being down -27% on this is a little light?
I mean we had some companies down 27% for beating earnings 🤣
NIK@ns123abc
🚨BREAKING: SUPER MICRO CO-FOUNDER ARRESTED FOR SMUGGLING $2.5B IN NVIDIA GPUs TO CHINA >SMCI co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw arrested today >personally holds $464 MILLION in SMCI stock >charged with smuggling BILLIONS in Nvidia servers to china >used a southeast asian shell company to funnel $2.5B in servers to chinese buyers >$510 million worth shipped in just THREE WEEKS in spring 2025 >built thousands of fake dummy servers to fool U.S compliance auditors >caught on surveillance camera using a HAIR DRYER to swap serial number stickers >coordinated the whole thing over encrypted group chats >SMCI down 12% after hours >faces up to 30 years in federal prison ITS SO OVER…
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I usually stay far away from politics… I just can’t stand politics.
Right now though, one thing that stands out regardless of where you lean, whether you welcomed this administration or dreaded it, there’s a growing sense of total fatigue. Some see strong leadership, others see too much ego and unnecessary friction with other nations taking center stage.
Either way, the constant tension, noise, and questions around accountability are wearing most people out regardless of the camp.
Red or blue, the fatigue feels really bipartisan at this point.
Don’t shoot the messenger tho!
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@Mojo_flyin @TheJusticeDept Well, I appreciate the thoughtful discussion, sir. We’ll see where it ends up, have a fine weekend.
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Wally is a board member. So the only thing left is do they go after Liang. Wrt Nvidia that's to be seen. Jensen did donate a large sum of money to the white house renovation - as did many other execs. But Potus is enamoured of his success. So nothing may happen to Nvidia at all. But this may be why Jensen was on edge and borderline rude at the GTC analysts call. Very unlike him but he might have heard the news by then. Worth watching...
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$SMCI why are people surprised?
This has been in conversation for a year now. The only question is will @TheJusticeDept also go after $NVDA
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@Mojo_flyin @TheJusticeDept I’m not saying there’s not a compelling narrative; I agree that there is. Further, you present it very well.
But making the leap from an indictment of individuals, to the company writ large, and then to $NVDA will require substantial proof for the DOJ to investigate $NVDA.
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My views are formed by a bit more than conjecture if that's what you think. However, let me explain to you since I have some experience here. Wally is taking the rap for now. But if you think 2 guys at SMCI quietly shipped billions of GPU servers out the back door and nobody else knew including the CEO that's naive. You do know the SMCI auditor refused to sign off on the books, the CFO was supposed to be fired a year ago but is still there and they were deslisted once before and should have been again. Please gather some facts on thid. There are plenty in the public domain including FT articles posted by me. No lawyer is saving Wally now. Whatever his lawyers had to do they would have prepped him prior to the interview. Now it all depends on whether the govt wants to go deep. Keep watching. We might see Liang retire soon. It means nothing that SMCI wasn't named. What matters is do they take down others in the mgmt team.
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@Mojo_flyin @TheJusticeDept details matter; $SMCI is not named, three individuals tied to the company are.
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@Mojo_flyin @TheJusticeDept I understand you believe the narrative is strong.
However, what you see is not always what you get when it goes to court.
Evidence matters. If you have a friend who's in big law or a top litigation firm, they can probably be useful on this point.
and $SMCI was not named, yet
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@yieldsearcher totally agree, economist famously wrong with cover selections
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@ConnorJBates_ Well, the way to look at this is not in isolation, but comparatively across all funds and their weighting in particular, in comparison to other Mega Caps.
It is still under owned from that perspective.
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@Mojo_flyin @TheJusticeDept Mojo, respectfully, there is NVDA didnt export anything.
Jensen meets with many people in many contexts and cannot be assumed to have full knowledge of every counterparty in every meeting, especially if deception is at play.
Quality of the evidence > Quality of the narrative
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There's no beyond arms length in violation of exports to restricted countries. Due diligence lies with them. $NVDA runs a KYC process with their OEMs on end customers. The front companies in Singapore were listed as partners on their own web site.. The Chinese CEO of one of these companies messaged Jensen to join her at a bar in Taiwan and he was there in 60 minutes. The DOJ can read the news too. It's just whether they choose to do something or not.
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If you ask me about buying the dip on $SMCI I am blocking you.
Better chance talking me into buying $EOSE into earnings.
NIK@ns123abc
🚨BREAKING: SUPER MICRO CO-FOUNDER ARRESTED FOR SMUGGLING $2.5B IN NVIDIA GPUs TO CHINA >SMCI co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw arrested today >personally holds $464 MILLION in SMCI stock >charged with smuggling BILLIONS in Nvidia servers to china >used a southeast asian shell company to funnel $2.5B in servers to chinese buyers >$510 million worth shipped in just THREE WEEKS in spring 2025 >built thousands of fake dummy servers to fool U.S compliance auditors >caught on surveillance camera using a HAIR DRYER to swap serial number stickers >coordinated the whole thing over encrypted group chats >SMCI down 12% after hours >faces up to 30 years in federal prison ITS SO OVER…
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By sheer coincidence, I was researching $SMCI a couple days ago for a sub request
And a couple of my notes were:
“Always stuck in controversy”
“Still feels sketchy on executive level”
Feels oddly prescient now 😂😂
NIK@ns123abc
🚨BREAKING: SUPER MICRO CO-FOUNDER ARRESTED FOR SMUGGLING $2.5B IN NVIDIA GPUs TO CHINA >SMCI co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw arrested today >personally holds $464 MILLION in SMCI stock >charged with smuggling BILLIONS in Nvidia servers to china >used a southeast asian shell company to funnel $2.5B in servers to chinese buyers >$510 million worth shipped in just THREE WEEKS in spring 2025 >built thousands of fake dummy servers to fool U.S compliance auditors >caught on surveillance camera using a HAIR DRYER to swap serial number stickers >coordinated the whole thing over encrypted group chats >SMCI down 12% after hours >faces up to 30 years in federal prison ITS SO OVER…
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@optimusbutler @yieldsearcher Depends on your risk tolerance. Valuation is definitely cheap.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Everyone is looking at $SMCI smuggling billions of dollars of AI chips to China. But nobody is answering the question: How do I make money off this, and is it a good buying opportunity? My answer: If $SMCI drops much lower than ~$24 overnight. It like a buying opportunity at a ~$14B MC. Everyone looks at the DOJ case and thinks Super Micro are cooked. But two things: 1. The company itself looks insulated, so far (not named a defendant) 2. $SMCI chip sales to China state actors was already known (just not to the $2.5B+ extent), by Hindenburg short seller reports in 2024. So a decent part of the China revenue stuff was already priced in, which is why $SMCI crashed from $100+ and is now trading at $24. Now if we strip away optics and some material revenue: -> $SMCI GAAP net income was $1.05B last year, and FY 2026 is estimated to be around ~$1.25B with some estimates going to $1.5B. And then we rip away an est ~$150M in smuggled in profit out of financials: ~$1.05 billion -> ~$900M? On a P/E basis, still looks relatively cheap as a growing company, maybe ~10-11x? Now the downside: -> Optics are still trash. You can add more trash to trash. But it's still trash regardless, doesn't change much? -> $NVDA distancing itself with $SMCI? (They already did in 2024). -> $SMCI not named a defendant, but in the case SEC/DOJ goes after them, then lot of regulatory fees and possibly fines. -> Maybe order cancellations, but if they didn't cancel orders for the problems they had in 2024, it looks fine now? Now... Are there a lot better opportunities than taking this regulatory leap of faith? 100%. Is there potential more downside from panicking? Yes. But if you strip away the noise, $SMCI as a company looks cheap ~$14B at roughly 10-11x forward earnings.
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@HaydnBCole @yieldsearcher is it a buy here? Lots of backlog and demand still it seems
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I am mindful that their new auditor BDO gave an unqualified opinion on their financials, but not on their internal controls.
Wall St Engine@wallstengine
$SMCI disclosed that federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York have charged three people tied to the company in an alleged export-control conspiracy. Supermicro was not named as a defendant. The company placed two employees on administrative leave, cut ties with a contractor, and is cooperating with the investigation.
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