James Massey

@PauloMacro Same thing when they created the individual city housing futures during that bubble

Vibes

@zerohedge I vividly remember when they created the individual city housing futures in ‘06 that was a fun ride too!

*CME TO CREATE FUTURES MARKET FOR COMPUTING POWER BACKING AI

@PauloMacro Does it matter? All the Dems will do the same thing

At the gas station right now, heavy Maga territory… 60yr old woman on the pump next to me. Overhear her say to herself “$50 to fill the tank?!Fuck Trump and his war“ Trump is in fuking *trouble*

@fejau_inc @agnostoxxx Shhh just buy

I feel like not enough attention was paid to the recent JOLTs data and the cratering in business service jobs openings 👀

@zerohedge And they also own large percentages of those two entities

And most of their clients are the same people they will make unemployed

@rev_cap @cap_zay Look at Korea it leads us all

@nickgerli1 @zerohedge Funny talked to a mortgage broker buddy of mine today here and he said he’s slammed with lots of buyers

Some crazy stuff is going on in Nashville's housing market. Opendoor, America's largest homebuyer, just purchased this house for $462K in March. But then immediately relisted and cut the price to $430k. a $32,000 loss on price in a matter of weeks. On top of that, the appraised value for this house is $548,000. Meaning today's list price is 22% below 2025 appraisal. Suggesting major downward pressure on values in Nashville. (that, or both Opendoor and the Nashville tax appraiser don't know what they're doing).

@BobEUnlimited Robotics and AI led productivity improvements

If there was a manufacturing renaissance I'd expect at least some sign in the jobs data... Manufacturing employment down 0.6% from a year ago, below 2018 levels. x.com/FreightAlley/s…

@zerohedge So same thing they said last Friday got it

Tehran may agree to resume negotiations if the US lifts the blockade of Iran's southern ports and fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz: Iran International

@biancoresearch Hence why they can’t let the market go down. Stonks are most important thing in the US economy

The saving rate is income minus disposable spending. It does NOT include investment performance (such as stock or housing prices rising). So, I view the saving rate as a sentiment indicator. It is low because households don't need to hold back spending for savings. Their stock ETFs and Zillow estimates are "saving" for them. So ... spend away. Question: Is this a wise approach to saving right now?

@charliebilello @zerohedge Issue now is if they try to unwind it everything falls apart. They will try to manage it as we explode higher and when the wheels fall off it will be everyone else’s fault. Liquidity can’t be taken away market dependent on it and market is now the economy

The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell. Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years. Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control. The truth: this inflation was made in Washington as it always is - from too much government borrowing/spending and too much government creation of money.

@cap_zay Yeah but bonds are starting to care which will make equities care

Its incredible how little equities care about energy prices now

@cap_zay Zay, Stop trying to understand 5d chess and just btfd

Lets assume the iran oil production collapse hype is real. I dont think it is. Wouldn't semi permanently taking off 2m barrels on top of current problems also not be good for global growth.

@ReneSellmann @hkuppy @InvestLikeBest Just pump it. Social media and chat room pump it

In some way, in recent years, investing has become increasingly overwhelming, particularly when compared to the simpler approach it may have been just a few decades ago. Listening to the latest @InvestLikeBest episode featuring Paul Tudor Jones really highlighted this shift. Jones spoke candidly about how the sheer volume of data points he has to track is staggering, to the point where he feels almost compelled to monitor developments constantly – every day, every hour, almost every minute ... all the time. This level of information overload has become the norm for many, and it creates an environment where even seasoned investors feel they can't afford to fall behind. On top of this, there has been a noticeable shift in market structure, an issue that has been voiced most notably by David Einhorn. Investors like Einhorn suggest that traditional fundamentals now matter less and less in determining stock prices. For example, a stock might be dirt cheap, but without a clear catalyst or thoughtful capital allocation by management, it can remain undervalued for an extended period – even for a decade or longer, which was unthinkable a few decades ago. Many stocks today simply don’t trade based on fundamentals anymore. Adding to the complexity, Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman @hkuppy recently tweeted that focusing solely on fundamentals in the current market climate may actually be a disadvantage, a liability, rather than an edge, a source of alpha, as it once was. This new dynamic seems to suggest that, in some cases, understanding the perception of a stock – how the market views it – may be just as important, if not more so, than traditional financial analysis. As investors, we are now required to think beyond just earnings and revenue and consider how market sentiment might shift regardless of those factors. I’ve spent time developing a framework to better navigate these shifts, which I call my three-part perception change framework. It focuses on adaptability, a key trait of investors who remain successful over many cycles. However, adding this new dimension to investing – where perception and sentiment can drive prices more than fundamentals – feels like it dilutes the value of traditional analysis. It's a difficult reality to accept, especially for those of us who have relied on fundamental analysis as the backbone of our strategy for years. Just thinking a little out loud here. Now, while this added complexity can feel overwhelming, it also defines the new frontier of professional investing. The "edge" is no longer just finding a cheap stock; it is accurately predicting when and why the market will finally choose to care about it. How do you typically weigh the "perception" pillar against the "fundamental" pillar when you're first screening a new idea?

@cap_zay The amount of cows is still way too low. And in times of drought like now because feed costs get so high they thin the herd. Well herd is already thinned so now do you keep thinning?

Didn't trump "stop" the greedy cattle farmers last year lol. New ath for beef. I am suffering

@biancoresearch The three day claim isn’t anywhere close to the number from every analysis that I’ve seen. It’s much longer like 3 weeks to 2 months.

Note that the US response to Ghalibaf's threats below is that Iran is three days away from "tank top," as Trump said this morning on Fox News. This means they are running out of oil storage (because they cannot ship due to the US blockade), and shutting down oil production is extremely damaging (true). This will prompt Iran to race to the negotiating table to secure a peace deal on US terms, keeping its oil business intact and its main source of income functioning. However, Iran has one more "card" to play: dump 2 million barrels/day into the Persian Gulf, creating an ecological disaster? Would they do this? See what Ghalibaf threatened below, remembering he was the "moderate" that JD Vance was negotiating with in Pakistan two weeks ago. If Iran actually did this, would this pressure the US to call off the Blockade to get tankers in to stop the environmental damage? Remember, they are in a war for their very survival. What wouldn't they do? ---- Ghalibaf threats: BEM(unplayed), this is the Bob el Mandeb, the chokepoint at the southern end of the Red Sea that the Houthis have been attacking for three years. He is suggesting that the Houthis are waiting for "a go" from Iran to stop shipping through it by launching drones. +Pipelines(unplayed), this is a threat to attack the pipelines in the Middle East, like the Saudi East-West Petroline, which carries up to 7M barrels/day to Yanbu (in the Red Sea), and/or the UAE's Habshan–Fujairah Pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz to the Fujairah port in the Gulf of Oman. Finally More Price Adj (to come): he is betting that the longer this drags on, the higher crude oil/gasoline prices go, and American consumers will demand the US "just pack up and go home," and Iran wins. He suggests this here ... Add summer vacation to the right unless they want to cancel it for the US! (He means Americans have a "right" to a summer vacation unless they want to cancel it so Trump can win this war.)

@mgzxbt @rev_cap Scariest thing is that HF’s are still pretty short in their books

@IMIJ33 @rev_cap Crowded positioning before the war is my guess but yeah it’s perplexing how it breaks out to this extent when nothing has fundamentally improved.

@cap_zay @rev_cap @prpl8 Essentially mkt keeps going up so why attack? No one cares about the costs building in the system. Figure we run it to 7600 then it sells of 20% we are right back to the lows from March no harm no foul

@rev_cap @prpl8 I think the plan is to wait it out and see if they buckle to internal infighting between now and when it matters.. and then pay them a bag when people care less. Although you'd think everyone will care more if energy keeps edging up a few % per week

@cap_zay No one cares they are so scared to miss AI upside again. Even though we are back to circle financing deals

Its funny to see this headline and trump saying iran asking to meet.