808

Profits High Employment High Buybacks High Deferrals High Debt Service Low Spreads Low Taxes Low Valuations High HH Stock Allocation High(est) US Stock Weight High(est) 2025 seems like its going to be a fun year, but sometime this Presidential term it will all roll over

no need for diplomatic staff when you have the best dealmaker of all time sitting on the throne!

@CRUDEOIL231 when people start yapping that oil doesn't matter its too low a % of spend I think that just means price needs to go up more

There is no room for argument that the Third World is suffering from high oil prices, but there doesn't seem to be any meaningful demand destruction in wealthy nations just yet. While there are some issues in certain petrochemsectors, transport fuel demand still looks robust. The problem is that these wealthy countries account for an overwhelming share of total global oil demand. Looking at mobility proxies for major countries, no significant changes have been observed so far. So i went out for a drive today since it's Saturday, and the roads were so packed with cars they were practically parking lots. Then again, do South Koreans even care about gasoline prices? The government has caps on gasoline/diesel prices, the stock market is rallying hard so the nation of speculators is making bank, and the semi industry is booming. It took me an hour to travel just a few kilometers. The spreadsheet warriors have no idea what's actually happening. China? I met some Chinese guys who visited Seoul during the week—trader and diplomat. What do you think they said? "We don't know much about oil, but we haven't really seen anyone feeling a true sense of crisis over fuel prices yet." Of course if the realities don't change, we will eventually feel the pain and see demand destruction. I'm not denying that. It just seems like we haven't reached that pain threshold at all yet. #oott #iran

@mvvvqv @choffstein @bennpeifert this prob has a lot to do with it neutering of lists sucks too

@prpl8 @choffstein @bennpeifert Old timeline algo vs new

I don't understand the grave dancing on QVR's downfall. It's tough to build any business and sad to watch a few bad months sink 5+ years of hard work. I hope everyone there lands on their feet. I really don't get the pile-on against @bennpeifert personally. He's contributed tons of education to the discourse on options/volatility on this hellsite. You can dislike his politics/personal choices without cheering his downfall.

@cap_zay Xi said USA is on the decline and Trump agreed with him except it's Biden's fault.

So did anything noteworthy come out of this Xi/Trump meeting?

but first: AOC

@161phi @sidprabhu @phileeppos I doubt it 47 years so far, a lot of them with very low oil revenues

@prpl8 @sidprabhu @phileeppos Because the dudes that stay loyal cuz they get bribed. Prolly start doing things.

I had a dream that this would be the reverse of US embassy hostage release in Iran 1980 and that Iran keeps strait closed until new Congress is sworn in and it makes a deal with Democratic Senate Majority Leader

I know I'm getting real old because I line up the last few big tech innovations - smartphone, social, ai - and start to really think - is our life actually better off than before? Convenient yes. But better?

When I was 15 (1984) on Friday nights I would ride my bike over to my best friend's house and we would play Dungeons & Dragons, Chess, Risk and dozens of other games while trying to to drink enough Dr Pepper to stay up all night. It was so fun. My son is 15, he set up a Minecraft server and he plays with all his friends while they are on a group facetime. He loves it but I do think they would be better off meeting up and playing D&D all night.

@busgus things seem normal and right to the individual when you are in the environment where they are normal

@prpl8 The US had its own test with Japanese internment on the West Coast, and I would not describe this as passing with flying colors x.com/busgus/status/… (That survey was by the Office of Facts and Figures with the newly founded NORC then still at University of Denver)

i hate to break it to you guys but if you were a German in the late 1930s you would have been a Nazi Maybe not in the party but you would have supported them. They fixed the country and fascism and racism was the water in which everyone swam You would have loved Hitler sorry

@161phi @sidprabhu @phileeppos why is their storage capacity important?

@sidprabhu @phileeppos @prpl8 These dudes overestimate Iran storage capacity

@busgus Thanks for the link. This is exactly what I am talking about “If the Germans had chosen someone else,” he often said, “we would have been the very best Nazis.” At first blush this seems so crazy, no way would we be Nazis. Not me! I am good! But we would.

@prpl8 Yeah mostly. Nazi support rose a lot 1930 to 1939. One short piece I recommend to people is Jason Stanley's NYT op-ed about 10y back nytimes.com/2016/08/21/opi… And yes it wasn't quite this simple but the message is important. Details later, once people accept that the enemy is us

tick tock

@tylermacro10 8%?????

These yields are not even high ≈ nominal gdp growth would be a good starting point

@DannyDayan5 TINA has turned into a systemic risk

Next note I am working on is focused on potential Systemic Risks: -Private Credit -Leverage We'll see what I find on both of them. Stay tuned. Have a good weekend everyone.

good thing its different this time

@JohnTheListener bye

@prpl8 That's factually false. If this is your feckless attempt at lumping everybody in your group to justify being a fascist, go fuck your spineless self.

tick tock on gasoline memorial day should be very annoying for a lot of Americans

@amboteignosceme treasonous is the new buzzword

@prpl8 i love this, but i think only the president has the authority. i would charge you with logan act just for tweeting this.

Do I build a 250 mile, 48” oil pipeline at $15 million per mile if I think everything will get back to normal with the Strait of Hormuz? No. No I do not. #oott.