Sabitlenmiş Tweet
808
30.8K posts
I am very surprised they have shown so much restraint.
Makes me think there is Chinese pressure or side deal with GCC of some sort.
Iran Observer@IranObserver0
⚡️BREAKING: the IRGC announces it will Destroy Gas and Oil Infrastructure in the Region should the US continue Strikes on Iranian Infrastructure
English
@LeoStarikov my 15 year old son and me, wife and daughter passed on the trip :(
English
808 retweetledi
It's going to be very challenging to effectively run a global oil industry when it's this easy to repeatedly cripple big physical assets like tankers and refineries.
Hard not to feel like this is the shape of things to come.
Clash Report@clashreport
Ukraine says 116 Russian vessels were hit in the Sea of Azov in nine days, including 11 overnight (5 tankers, 5 cargo ships, 1 tugboat).
English
@Rory_Johnston mini glut caused by China export ban keeping product prices low internally and high externally
kind of a genius political move actually
English
People are now like “but what about the oil mini-glut?! 😏”
But important to stress that there was in fact a mini-glut as Hormuz exits surged and Asian (*cough* China) import demand remained weak—it was just temporary and comparatively small, hence the “mini”.
Wouldn’t have seen prompt, contango if there wasn’t at least a brief oversupply of spot-available crude.
Even if the drive lower was mainly paper pressure, a tighter physical market would have provided a more reliable floor before we got there.
Mini-glut now appears to be passed at lease for now, moving back to scarcity signals.
But you’re doing yourself a disservice if you only believe timespreads when they agree with your prior.
(Prompt Brent futures timespread in white, Brent Dated to Frontline—DFL—spread in blue)
English
808 retweetledi
Any Trump toll on SoH barrels is a premium for RoW barrels.
English
808 retweetledi
30% of retail leveraged accounts liquidated
GIF
一些蓝@BlueBluebiu11
韩国金融监督院：韩国7月13日全市场累计超 120 万杠杆散户账户触及保证金追缴，其中约 32–36 万账户被券商全额强制平仓（本金清零、部分倒欠券商负债） 最好的夏天，哎。
English
At least for me, Twitter is broken. 21K views, 84 likes, 27 bookmarks... and 19 spam bot replies. Zero relevant interaction.
Guess I shouldn't have spoken up on $SPCX
Michael Green@profplum99
The PRICE of an asset is simply the solution to marginal supply and demand. All of the below are estimates of "Value" and create a catalyst only when the cash flows internal to the company create external cash flows that change marginal supply and demand, e.g. dividends or buybacks
English
English
@DannyDayan5 @ericwallerstein This is a nonsense data set, it is to a first approximation just curve shape, which is why its first derivative leads tightening cycles, IOW it just shows that the bond markets sniffs out moves before they happen
English
this suggestion from Nick Timiraos, that war-related energy price increases loosened monetary policy, is expressly not how real policy rates work. Financial conditions didn’t loosen, they tightened.
The proxy fed funds rate, which accounts for broader borrowing conditions, is now 90+bps higher than the effective rate. The spread between the two peaked in 2018 and 2022; real GDP growth slowed meaningfully from there, only accelerating once the spread fell roughly flat or negative.
English
808 retweetledi
The 20% toll suggested for the Strait of Hormuz is another "on-the-fly" invention from Trump, without any meaningful thought process behind it.
It's never going to materialize, so just stop spending energy thinking about it.
This is the most amateurish administration in the history of mankind, and we'll get another U-turn here…
English
And you're out here telling me equity market trends don't matter !?!?!
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
US households are sitting on a massive cash pile despite record equity exposure: Household equity holdings are up to a record ~$72 trillion. This is $18 trillion, or +33%, above its long-term trend from 2009 to 2019. Household stock ownership has more than doubled since 2020. Meanwhile, cash and cash equivalent holdings are up to $20 trillion, an all-time high. This exceeds the long-term trend by $5 trillion, or +33%. By comparison, households also own a record $11 trillion in debt securities such as bonds, $2.2 trillion, or +25%, above trend. American households have never had a bigger cash buffer.
English
808 retweetledi
Goldman's US Panic Index nearing extreme lows.
Translation: No one is bearish and complacency is running incredibly high. While this doesn't mean stocks roll over and die, it does counter claims by many bulls that there is any fear in the markets.
Source: Goldman Sachs
English
@sweinand @sidprabhu during liquidity crisis they will get smoked ...maybe temporarily
English
@sidprabhu Only since inception in 1997, do they outperform. Not every month. But consistent outperformance.
English
TIPS vs Nominals
1) TIPS almost always outperform nominals as the market underprices actual inflation.
2) TIPS are still bonds. They do not protect you from interest rate risk.
English
808 retweetledi
Ukraine has used drones to hit 90 Russian ships this week with complete impunity since July 6th!
Fast forward 5 years: Chinese linked vessels unleash thousands of drones at ports up and down both US coasts as China kicks off the invasion of Taiwan. Simultaneously, drones are unleashed from covert cargo vehicles near military bases inflicting damage unabated.
This isn't fantasy or sci-fi. This is a very real scenario and we're way behind the curve.
🇺🇦 Unmanned Systems Forces@usf_army
💥 USF Operators Struck 14 Enemy Vessels Overnight Operators of the Unmanned Systems Forces continue to systematically strike sanctioned vessels that support russia’s logistics and military potential. On the night of July 12: • Operators of the 9th Kairos Battalion of the @414magyarbirds , @1usc_army and the 412th Nemesis Brigade struck 10 tankers in the Sea of Azov. • Operators of the 1st Separate Center struck a ferry in the Sea of Azov. • Operators of the @Raid_413 struck three ferries near Kerch, Autonomous Republic of Crimea.In total, between July 6 and 13, units of the Unmanned Systems Forces struck 90 vessels of russia’s shadow fleet. Strikes against tankers and ferries that support the operation of russia’s shadow fleet complicate the use of vessels to bypass international sanctions and gradually reduce russia’s ability to sustain its war economy and logistical support for its forces. USF: One step ahead!
English
I play with this guy quite a bit
very exploitative player
love his approach to soft field poker tournaments
"you never know"
WSOP - World Series of Poker@WSOP
Givens is Ready to Dance! Just before the dinner break, Will Givens (@Highon7ife) was involved in the largest pot of the 2026 WSOP Main Event! Was it a stone-cold bluff or just the nuts when it reached showdown? Watch the WSOP Main Event stream LIVE at 6pm PT on @espn digital and YouTube in select territories.
English