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Jason Corley
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Jason Corley
@JasonCorley78
Co-Founder, lead pollster, and election forecaster at @QuantusInsights. Louisiana native. Here, opinions are my own.
가입일 Kasım 2024
463 팔로잉1.1K 팔로워
@JDJD2814 @Wilson__Valdez There have not been multiple polls and “statistically tied” is not a valid argument. The extreme worst case for Platner is just as likely as the extreme best case.
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They're already pre-butting Platner losing and blaming "centrist libs" and "Israel"... 5 months from the election lol
hasanabi@hasanthehun
the manufactured scandals around platner have nothing to do with his background & everything to do with trying to take out a left populist antizionist candidate before he can flip a red senate seat. they’ll complain abt the tattoo or whatever but if he loses centrist liberals will do exactly what aipac does & use the manufactured lies to claim going against israel or demanding medicare for all is something the voters rejected.
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There is little remarkable about our latest Maine Senate poll showing Platner up by just one point over Collins. The race has been shifting since late May and certainly in the month of June.
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@joshpowt I'm not understanding you point here. Regardless, we had the race tied in November.
We nailed the referendum poll in April.
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Notable movement in Maine since our March poll.
Collins has climbed. Platner has fallen. What was a clear Platner advantage has now tightened into a pure toss-up heading into the summer months.
This is one of the most competitive Senate races on the board.
Quantus Insights@QuantusInsights
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | June 12, 2026 Our latest Maine U.S. Senate survey finds the race tightening sharply since March, with Graham Platner now holding a narrow 1-point edge over Susan Collins. 📊 Maine U.S. Senate 🔵 Graham Platner: 46% 🔴 Susan Collins: 45% ⚪️ Undecided: 7% ⚪️ Other: 2% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Generic Congressional Ballot 🔵 Democratic candidate: 50% 🔴 Republican candidate: 40% ⚪️ Undecided: 8% ⚪️ Other: 3% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Susan Collins Favorable: 42% Unfavorable: 56% Very unfavorable: 49% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Graham Platner Favorable: 40% Unfavorable: 57% Very unfavorable: 37% The Maine Senate race has moved from an early Democratic advantage to a statistical tie. Platner led Collins by 7 points in our March survey, but now leads by just 1. Collins remains deeply underwater, yet she is running ahead of the Republican brand in a state where Democrats lead the generic ballot by 10. Platner’s standing has softened amid recent controversies, and the race remains highly competitive and unsettled.
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@IAmVerySilky @erickson_68 Yes. We will eventually. Once the primaries are over and things start moving.
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@Midnight_JJ0 @PpollingNumbers "Right wing pollster" -- have you ever been right about anything? Didn't we already go through this with our Massie polling which you some how thought was an op, when it really was just a very accurate poll?
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@PpollingNumbers Not even a rightwing pollster can give mass-murdering uniparty stooge Collins a lead.
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See the results here
polls.quantusinsights.org/polls/maine-ge…
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It looks like we have nailed Graham’s top line finish. We never followed up as it looked out of reach from early on.
Sahil Kapur@sahilkapur
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) will face Annie Andrews (D) in the South Carolina Senate race this fall, @NBCNews projects. Graham is a heavy favorite to win re-election in this red state.
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@IAmVerySilky We have a rematch in AL soon. We have to make that one right.
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@PuffyTheBlobFis @PollTracker2024 By less than one point. The informed ballot question missed by 0.00 points.
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@PollTracker2024 Quantus overestimated the yes side in the Virginia referendum
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Quantus poll | 6/3-6/4 LV
Texas statewide races 2026
US Senate
🟥Ken Paxton 45%
🟦James Talarico 43%
——
Governor
🟥Greg Abbott 49% (incumbent)
🟦Gina Hinojosa 41%
Eesti
Age yourself….
Name the second basemen from your favorite MLB team growing up.
I’ll start: Chuck Knoblauch
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We polled this race at the beginning of March and found Platner up 7 points, 49 to 42. Considering recent events, I don't suppose it's surprising to see that lead has vanished.
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022
Maine Senate polling trend by Fabrizio Lee for pro-Collins PAC January 24 🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 45% 🟦 Graham Platner: 44% JUNE 3 🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 46% 🟦 Graham Platner: 46%
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In a comparison of final 2024 Trump-Harris polling margins across the national vote and six key states, Quantus Insights performed closer to the actual results than the New York Times.
Image: Using margin error calculated as poll margin minus actual margin, negative values indicate a poll was too favorable to Harris, while positive values indicate it was too favorable to Trump.
Across the comparison set, Quantus had a mean absolute margin error of 1.71 points, compared with 3.10 points for NYT. Quantus also had a lower RMSE, 2.17 vs. 3.88, indicating smaller overall misses.
The directional bias was also smaller for Quantus. NYT’s average margin error was -2.16 points, meaning its toplines were about 2.2 points too favorable to Harris on average. Quantus’ average margin error was -0.29 points, making it nearly neutral overall.
The largest NYT misses came in North Carolina and Nevada. In North Carolina, NYT had Harris +4 while the actual result was Trump +3.2, a 7.2-point margin miss. In Nevada, NYT had Harris +3 while the actual result was Trump +3.1, a 6.1-point miss.
Quantus’ largest miss was Virginia, where it had Harris +1.1 and the actual result was Harris +5.7, a 4.6-point miss.
So, by comparison, Quantus’ 2024 polling was materially closer to the final results than NYT’s, with lower average margin error, lower RMSE, and substantially less directional bias.
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@StevenK8990 @QuantusInsights Most likely. Along with the result of a vicious primary contest delaying some of the usual Republican consolidation.
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@QuantusInsights @JasonCorley78 Maybe a shy Paxton vote not being picked up kind of like the shy Trump vote in 2016.
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Jason Corley 리트윗함
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | June 5, 2026
Our first Texas general election survey of the cycle finds Republican candidates leading across the major statewide contests, with the U.S. Senate race standing as the closest fight.
📊 Texas Statewide Toplines
U.S. Senate
🔴 Ken Paxton: 45%
🔵 James Talarico: 43%
⚪️ Undecided: 7%
⚪️ Other: 4%
––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Governor
🔴 Greg Abbott: 49%
🔵 Gina Hinojosa: 41%
⚪️ Undecided: 6%
⚪️ Other: 3%
––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Lt. Governor
🔴 Dan Patrick: 49%
🔵 Vikki Goodwin: 40%
⚪️ Undecided: 7%
⚪️ Other: 4%
––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Attorney General
🔴 Mayes Middleton: 47%
🔵 Nathan Johnson: 39%
⚪️ Undecided: 9%
⚪️ Other: 4%
Key Takeaway
Texas remains Republican-leaning, but still competitive this early in the cycle. The Senate race is the most fluid, with Paxton leading Talarico by just 2 points. Down ballot, Abbott, Patrick, and Middleton hold clearer advantages, with room for Republican consolidation as the general election environment takes shape.
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Texas Republicans Lead Statewide, Senate Race Starts Close quantusinsights.org/f/texas-republ…
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Check out our first survey of the cycle in Texas. Link to the article and full crosstabs will be in the comments.
Short story: The Republican electorate is not nearly as consolidated in June as it likely will be by September or October. Early numbers still matter, but the fall electorate will almost certainly be more partisan and more settled.
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