J. Milhouse
2.7K posts


@TheGreed0fMan @colin_gladman I have a few theories.
1. The reverse repo market is completely dried up = more money moving to markets
2. The treasury is decreasing reserves in the general account = more liquidity
3. Funds betting on future rates cuts with new chair
4. Inflation turning up= assets inflate
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@colin_gladman Hey Colin. Any insights into why markets keep going up regardless of what the headlines are? I’ve been quite prudent with my positioning but this is starting to feel like fomo territory. You’ve even got nba and mma fighters posting about stocks.
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Is this ceasefire in the room with us still?
The Spectator Index@spectatorindex
BREAKING: US military says it conducted strikes in southern Iran, targeting vessels and missile launch sites.
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@TheBronxViking I thought the call/put ratio was at all time highs? Can both be true at the same time?!
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@0xbeehive You absolutely cannot reference wyckoff without using volume to confirm the movements in your little sketch.
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S&P 500 LOOKS LIKE IT'S ACTUALLY GOING TO $8,000
Just not the way most people expect
Here's how I see it:
1. Pullback to $7,200
2. Fake rally to $7,700
3. Creek breakdown - this is where most get trapped
4. Spring flush to $6,100
5. Retest - then breakout to $8,000+
The $6,100 flush is where the real opportunity is
Most will panic sell it and miss the entire move up
Don't be exit liquidity
NOTIFS ON
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@bitcoinwell @peruvian_bull That proves my point. He willingly paid for a hit. Whether it actually happened or not doesn’t matter but he thought it did.
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@bitcoinwell @peruvian_bull There are transcripts of him communicating with an undercover agent asking for and paying for the agent to murder people involved with Silk Road.
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Ross Ulbricht and his wife Caroline are expecting their first child.
Eleven years in federal prison. A double life sentence plus forty years. Arrested in a public library in 2013, sentenced in 2015, pardoned January 23, 2025. Today: a baby on the way.
You don't have to agree with everything Silk Road was to feel something when a man who lost a third of his life to a cage gets to hear his child's first word. The state took the years. The state can't give them back. What it can do is stop standing in the way of the next chapter.
Bitcoin runs underneath this story. Ross was prosecuted for building a marketplace whose settlement rails the state hadn't yet approved. That same network now sits in the U.S. Treasury reserve, signed for by the same administration that pardoned him. Contraband and infrastructure inside a single decade.
Freedom isn't an abstraction. It's the cell door opening. It's a wedding ring. It's a sonogram. Welcome to the world, little one. Welcome home, Ross.
@RealRossU


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@StockShark16 We are completing the high side shoulder so a mild pop-up PM tomorrow to $742-743, everyone thinks it’s going to gap fill then fade down to $720 by end of next week.
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@BAMinvestor Please do not follow any of this advice. The market is not going to crash 40-50%.
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@VolSignals Is it possible this is the start of an unwind of the recent move if it was solely due to mechanical MM hedging?
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@colin_gladman I smell a gap below and go….down after this OPEX
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@alphaticaio What would be the key price levels if it were to lose footing and start a decline within the next few weeks?
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SPX GEX LEVELS: May 15 (Monthly OPEX)
Our year-end target was 7,462. SPX closed at 7,501 today. In May.
🚨🚨Tomorrow's expected range: 7,425 – 7,550. Pinned to 7,500 during the session. The structural shift happens after the close.
Net GEX hit a new all-time high at +$1.64B. The 7,500 strike carries +$310M, the largest single-strike gamma contribution in the history of this series. All 10 of the top 10 volume GEX strikes were positive for the second time ever. Net delta hit +529M shares. Spot landed directly on the max magnet. Every metric we track is at or near its all-time extreme.
Tomorrow all of that gets tested.
Friday is the monthly OPEX cliff we first flagged on May 2. 24.3% of remaining gamma sits on the May 15 expiration, 1.10M gamma shares on a single date. When those contracts expire at tomorrow's close, the $1.64B gamma blanket that has compressed every move, absorbed every headline, and pinned price to magnets for eight weeks will lose a quarter of its mass in one session.
After tomorrow, surviving gamma drops to approximately +2.54M shares. That's the thinnest blanket since the positive regime began in mid-April.
Here's what changes mechanically. During tomorrow's session, the expiring gamma is still live. The 7,500 pin at +$310M holds. Dealers buy every dip, sell every rally. The range compresses. That's the OPEX pinning effect we've documented on every Friday.
After the close, the structure shifts. The magnets weaken. The flip tightens. The range expands. Next week's dips go deeper because there's less gamma to catch them. Next week's rallies overshoot because there's less gamma to cap them. The volatility suppression that made this rally feel effortless starts unwinding.
The rising wedge enters day 10. The average adverse move before the decline is +6.42%. SPY has rallied 6.1% since the alert. We're within striking distance of the historical average. The wedge hasn't triggered, price hasn't closed below the breakdown level on consecutive sessions with deteriorating flow. But the OPEX gamma drain is the structural catalyst the pattern has been waiting for. A thinner blanket means less resistance to the breakdown when it comes.
The flip cluster is fragmented with 29 levels, the highest at 7,395, 106 points below. That cushion is adequate for Friday's pinned session. The question is what the flip looks like Monday morning after 24% of the gamma is gone.
What hasn't changed: the magnets above spot remain massive. 7,550 (+$156M), 7,600 (+$111M), 7,700 (+$57M), 7,800 (+$48M). The center of gravity sits at 7,612 which is 1.5% above spot. If the post-OPEX structure holds, the grind continues into the magnets. If it doesn't, the rising wedge and the gamma decay converge on the same week.
$SPX $SPY

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@KobeissiLetter This is where the pump came from. They printing again baby!!
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Money supply is skyrocketing:
Global money supply is now up to a record $121.9 trillion.
Over the last 2 years, money supply has soared +$17.1 trillion, or +16%.
This also marks a +$27 trillion increase, or +28%, since the 2022 low.
This means that global money supply is surging +7% to +8% a year.
Meanwhile, US M2 money supply jumped +$1 trillion YoY, or +4.6%, to a record $22.7 trillion.
Money supply growth is accelerating.

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@alphaticaio I’ve had that $684 marked on my chart ever since we left that area. Could we see a test there again in the short-term? Seems unreasonable to think so with the current momentum.
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@alphaticaio Shouldn’t that SPY divergence force price lower?
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DARK POOL UPDATE | May 13, 2026
$8.8B in off-exchange flow. 326 prints ≥$5M. Net: +$2.85B buy.
Yesterday the dark pool said -$1.05B sell. Today it flipped to +$2.85B buy. The lit tape and the dark pool are aligned on almost everything. One name disagrees.
Dark Pool Buyers:
$QQQ +$1.61B (43 prints, BOTH TAPES AGREE)
$MU +$522M (34 prints, BOTH TAPES AGREE)
$IWM +$474M (15 prints, NEW on the dark pool)
$AMZN +$327M (9 prints, ZERO dark pool sells)
$AAPL +$205M (8 prints, ZERO dark pool sells)
$GOOGL +$170M (10 prints, ZERO dark pool sells)
$NVDA +$134M (9 prints, BOTH TAPES AGREE)
The Only Dark Pool Seller:
$SPY -$882M (38 prints, LIT TAPE: BUY +$1.69B)
Seven names on the buy side. One seller. The dark pool is overwhelmingly bullish today.
$AMZN, $AAPL, and $GOOGL all with zero dark pool sells. Pure one-directional accumulation off-exchange on three mega-caps. When three of the biggest names in the market have zero seller interest in the dark pools, that's institutional consensus.
$QQQ: +$1.61B in the dark pools. +$4.59B on the lit tape. Both tapes agree. The Nasdaq accumulation is happening across every venue.
$NVDA: +$134M in the dark pools. +$879M on the lit tape. Both tapes agree. For weeks $NVDA was being sold on both tapes. Now both are buying. The consensus is shifting.
$IWM appears in the dark pools for the first time at +$474M across 15 prints. The Russell 2000 being accumulated in the dark is a broadening signal. Small caps are showing up in institutional off-exchange flow.
The $SPY divergence: bought on the lit tape at +$1.69B. Sold in the dark pools at -$882M. This is the fourth time in five sessions the two tapes have disagreed on $SPY. Lit tape says buy the S&P. Dark pool says sell it. Four sessions is not an anomaly. It's a pattern.
When the two tapes agree on individual names but disagree on the broad index, it suggests the institutions want specific stocks but are hedging their overall market exposure in the dark.
The lit tape shows you what they're doing in public. The dark pool shows you what they're doing where they think nobody is watching.
Now you're watching.

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YEAH...SOMETHING'S NOT RIGHT HERE.
I just happened to notice that there had been a ton of decent sized positive days on $SPX over the last month or so, so I decided to count them up.
15 times in the last 31 trading days, SPX has been up at least as much as it was today (+0.58%).
Is that a lot? Well, there have now been 152 times (including overlapping time periods) since $VIX came out in 1990 that this has happened.
So why am I telling you about this?
Because this is the FIRST TIME IN HISTORY that we've seen a 31-day period like this where VIX closed under 20 at any point during the stretch.
Ever.
The market is moving like it does during bear markets and corrections, except that this time, it's in neither.
What gives?
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@colin_gladman But he's in China making a deal that will have huge benefits for the 1%! Isn't that what we all need?
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But who cares?
Markets are up and Trump promised me not to worry.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: April PPI Inflation surges to 6.0%, well above expectations of 4.9% and the highest level since January 2023. Core PPI Inflation rose to 5.2%, above expectations of 4.3%. Both CPI and PPI Inflation are now officially at 3+ year highs. Odds of rate HIKES are rising.
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@colin_gladman This is the “diamond hand” crowd that sees huge gains turn into losses 98% of the time
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Bro look at these comments lol.
Is there like a new $MU cult I didn’t know about 😂
Colin@colin_gladman
Overall I think $MU comes to 650-680. That’s what I’d be looking for currently.
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@_Zer0_C00L__ @colin_gladman Where in the post above did he suggest markets don’t go up overtime?
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@colin_gladman Market dynamics going down are completely different to uptrend. The markets always have a natural tendency to go up overtime’s
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Last thing then I’m out tonight.
Here’s a good litmus test for you:
If the market had:
- Gone down for 6 weeks straight
- Daily RSI was at 28
- Had gone down 28% in 28 days
You’d be screaming “buy, buy, buy” right? I would.
However no one will ever use that as a reason to sell anything or even take some profits.
Just food for thought.
“The time to buy is when you don’t want to, so is the time to sell.”

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