Niall Ferguson

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Niall Ferguson

Niall Ferguson

@nfergus

International man of history, Flying Scotsman. Author, @HooverInst senior fellow, @TheFP and @thetimes columnist. Opinions my own.

Stanford, CA 가입일 Haziran 2009
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Niall Ferguson 리트윗함
Hoover Institution
Hoover Institution@HooverInst·
Iran's closure of Hormuz has shocked the global economy. Hoover Fellows @nfergus and Philip Zelikow, along with @RichardHaass, argue that the solution consists of a strategy that combines military might, multilateral diplomacy, and a long-term vision. Read more via @TheFP: thefp.com/p/how-to-stop-…
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Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson@nfergus·
"We must undertake the biggest peacetime programme of rearmament in our country’s history. To do that, we need the money to pay for it. ... The next Conservative government would reinstate the two-child benefit cap, three billion pounds, and spend that money on defence. ... We will reallocate £17 billion from Government R&D and Ed Miliband’s disastrous Net Zero projects to create a new Sovereign Defence Fund. ... It is not yet 3%, but it is a start. We will find more savings till we get there."
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Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson@nfergus·
Very, very important speech today by @KemiBadenoch at the @LondonDefConf. This is what sets her apart from all the other UK party leaders. "The mirror that [Trump] is holding up to Europe and that we find so uncomfortable to look in is showing us that without the United States, we cannot properly defend ourselves."
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Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson@nfergus·
"For the US, ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran in 2026 would not be quite as swift a humiliation as the Anglo-French failure to wrest control of the Suez Canal from Egypt in 1956. But the consequences for the credibility of the Pax Americana would be similar to Suez’s consequences for the Pax Britannica."
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Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson@nfergus·
There is no going back to the status quo ante. There will need to be a new international agreement to manage the Strait of Hormuz. Here's the plan proposed yesterday by me, @RichardHaass, and Philip Zelikow.
Niall Ferguson tweet mediaNiall Ferguson tweet media
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Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson@nfergus·
5. Your anti-tech riff is Luddite. The UK needs to be a tech player (as you seem to say earlier in the piece). And it can be (example: quantum). 6. Going back into Europe isn't the answer any more. (See point 5.) 7. But the need for greater autonomy in national security and therefore higher defence spending is absolutely right. 8. We don't have a de Gaulle (and we certainly don't want a republic). But I think @KemiBadenoch is the one leader who understands your most important point. We have become excessively reliant on the U.S. That is a bad idea regardless of who is president.
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Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson@nfergus·
1. Surprised you hadn't realized the Atlantic alliance was in crisis sooner. This goes back a long way, and it didn't get better under Biden & Co. It got worse. 2. Electoral reform will only increase the political fragmentation. Without a strong presidency, as in France, it can't work. 3. The last thing the UK needs is more tax hikes. Think Milei, not Rueff! 4. On energy and transport infrastructure, you're right. Don't forget housing. The excellent "Foundations" report anticipated all this. But the solution here is less government, more market.
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Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson@nfergus·
5. Your anti-tech riff is Luddite. The UK needs to be a tech player (as you seem to say earlier in the piece). And it can be (example: quantum). 6. Going back into Europe isn't the answer any more. (See point 5.) 7. But the need for greater autonomy in national security and therefore higher defence spending is absolutely right. 8. We don't have a de Gaulle (and we certainly don't want a republic). But I think @KemiBadenoch is the one leader who understands your most important point. We have become excessively reliant on the U.S. That is a bad idea regardless of who is president.
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Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson@nfergus·
1. Surprised you hadn't realized the Atlantic alliance was in crisis sooner. This goes back a long way, and it didn't get better under Biden & Co. It got worse. 2. Electoral reform will only increase the political fragmentation. Without a strong presidency, as in France, it can't work. 3. The last thing the UK needs is more tax hikes. Think Milei, not Rueff! 4. On energy and transport infrastructure, you're right. Don't forget housing. The excellent "Foundations" report anticipated all this. But the solution here is less government, more market.
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Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson@nfergus·
Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz cannot stand. But there's no going back to the status quo ante in the Gulf. The U.S. and its allies urgently need a plan for the post-war governance of the Strait of Hormuz. Here's a proposal by me, @RichardHaass, and Philip Zelikow.
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Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson@nfergus·
Last night @rafaelasie and I discussed Schrödinger's Ceasefire, the move Trump should have made on Tuesday but didn't, and why Steve Kotkin was right last year to warn about the lack of process in the formation of the 2nd Trump administration's national security strategy.
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Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson@nfergus·
If you just got into an Ivy League college (or your kid did), you really ought to read this excellent post from @uaustinorg. There really are better ways to spend four formative years of your life.
University of Austin (UATX)@uaustinorg

To: Admitted Students on Ivy Decision Day From: UATX Congratulations. Getting in was hard and you should be proud. Now here’s some unsolicited advice so you don’t waste the next four years. Go to class. We know this sounds obvious. But as the New York Times reported recently, Harvard students routinely skip class, rarely speak up when they're there, and focus on their devices instead of the discussion. Faculty say few students do enough preparation to contribute meaningfully. The average college student spends about 20 hours a week on class and studying combined. At UATX, we aim for 50. That’s the difference between a part-time commitment and a full-time job. You (or your parents) are about to spend upwards of $90K a year. If you don't show up, you're paying roughly $250 per skipped lecture for the privilege of sleeping in. Read the books yourself. Your generation is the first to arrive at college post-literate — raised on short-form video, dependent on algorithms, and increasingly incapable of sitting with a difficult text long enough to let it change your mind. Ninety percent of college students use AI academically. This makes you more reliant on the authority of others. Most professors will also stand between you and the text. They’ll tell you what Marx “really meant,” what Aristotle “failed to see,” as though an academic in 2026 has outsmarted minds that shaped civilizations. The good professors do the opposite: they put you in front of the book and they work with you to find what a great mind has to teach us directly. Find those professors, and read everything yourself. Say what you actually think. Seventy-three percent of conservative students report withholding their political views in class out of fear their grades will suffer. Our advice isn't political; it's intellectual. If you spend four years learning to say what's expected instead of what's true, you’ll graduate roughly where you started — just older, more credentialed, and more practiced at self-censorship. One study finds that nearly half of students show no measurable gains in “critical thinking” after two years in college. Keep this in mind as you make decisions about which professors to take and how to do your assignments. Taking a small hit on your paper to gain integrity and wisdom is usually worth it. Ask for real grades. Sixty percent of Harvard undergraduate grades are now A’s. Twenty-five years ago, it was 20%. It got so bad that the legendary Harvard professor, Harvey Mansfield, started giving students two grades: the official one for their transcript, and a private one reflecting what they actually earned. He called the official grades “ironic.” So here's a suggestion: Take your A, but also ask your professors for a “Mansfield grade” so that you know where you stand. And don’t avoid difficult courses to keep your transcript clean for law school. Get work experience before you graduate. Forty-two percent of recent college graduates are working jobs that don't require a degree. Many employers are projecting the next few years to be the worst college grad job market in years. A degree alone — even from an Ivy — is not a job guarantee. Seek out apprenticeships, internships, and real work starting freshman year. The students at UATX are connected with entrepreneurs and business leaders from day one. Many will graduate with four years of work experience alongside their degree. You can build something similar at your school, but you'll have to do it yourself. Understand how debt shapes your life. If you're paying full freight or even half, do the math with your eyes open. Your decision to take on debt will quietly reshape the trajectory of your adult life through countless small surrenders: the job you take because it’s safe instead of starting the company. The city you choose to live in. The relationship you delay and the kids you don’t have. For women, a $1,000 increase in student loan debt lowers the odds of marriage by 2% per month in the first four years after graduation. None of that shows up in the college brochure. If you're going to take on debt, treat it like the constraint it is from day one: save aggressively and make sure every dollar is buying something that will actually compound in your favor. Find the people who take school seriously. The best thing about a great school isn't the lectures or the library. It's the handful of professors and students who are genuinely there to learn — who read ahead, argue in good faith, and push you to be sharper. Find them. UATX is a small community of those who seek a serious education. At a larger university, you have to build this community yourself. * The most dangerous thing about an elite university is that it is very easy to do nothing for four years and still come out looking successful. The transcript will say you excelled. The diploma with the fancy crest will open certain doors. Your parents will be proud. And yet you will have coasted — through inflated grades, unread books, and borrowed opinions. Getting in is an accomplishment. Making the next four years worth it will be harder, and the right decisions will change everything. We wish you luck.

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