Niall Ferguson

Last week, @nfergus and I welcomed Andrew Preston to @HooverInst for a Hoover Applied History Working Group seminar on his new book, Total Defense: The New Deal and the Invention of National Security. @paleoliberal served as the discussant. Watch below: youtube.com/watch?v=JnKbnD…

Here's the report: policyexchange.org.uk/publication/wo…

The polling in the excellent new @Policy_Exchange report on British Muslims' attitudes is full of sobering data.

Kissinger on Europe in 1966. Remarkable foresight here. This is from ⁦@nfergus⁩’s amazing biography of Kissinger, Vol. 1.

"The Strait of Hormuz is blocked. For how long? The Strait of Taiwan is open. For how long?" My latest for @TheFP thefp.com/p/niall-fergus…

"However, if Trump’s advisers do not keep their wits about them, they may overlook the fact that they have created a huge strategic opportunity for China and Russia—especially if they act in concert. A Taiwan crisis would upend the international economy and geopolitical order."

"The administration is now trying to salvage a plan that seems to be, like Churchill’s in 1915, disintegrating on contact with the enemy. It may still be salvageable. The Islamic Republic may yet oblige Trump by expiring. I do not rule that out."

"Nowhere is the law of unintended consequences more binding than when crucial commercial chokepoints become casualties of war." My latest essay for @TheFP on the lessons history has to offer those who would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Rereading ⁦@nfergus⁩’s biography of Kissinger for tomorrow’s class. This here is a striking passage with much resonance for our own times.

The President has a big decision to make soon on whether to scale up the presence of special forces to ensure the Strait of Hormuz is navigable. Hoover Senior Fellow @nfergus analyzes the risks on the latest GoodFellows episode. Watch on X:

Strong contender for essay of the year: tabletmag.com/feature/zionis…

"Years from now, it will be obvious why ... as we faced high-powered technologies and political ideologies aimed at paving the way for their dominance over humans, what emerged ... was an intense, global debate about, of all things, Zionism." Brilliant essay by @alananewhouse for @tabletmag.

“A Public Servant Faces a Public Death.” And if you read nothing else today, read this. ⁦@BenSasse⁩ talks to ⁦@tunkuv⁩ wsj.com/opinion/a-publ…

Missiles. Drones. Oil shocks. Hoover Director @CondoleezzaRice joins our Senior Fellows @LTGHRMcMaster, @nfergus, and @JohnHCochrane to break down the stakes in the Iran conflict. Watch the latest GoodFellows now:

Dijimos presente en #ArgentinaWeek 2026 en Nueva York 🗽 Fue un honor formar parte de este encuentro que reúne al sector público y privado para conectar el talento argentino con inversores globales y seguir fortaleciendo el ecosistema de nuestro país. @pbarbieri participó de dos espacios de conversación clave: 🌎 Geopolítica en foco: moderó una charla especial junto a @nfergus, su mentor e inversor de #Ualá, profundizando en los desafíos y oportunidades del contexto global. 💬 Talento argentino construyendo empresas tecnológicas globales: gran conversación con @HernanK (@KaszekVentures), @migoya (@Globant) y @martinvars (@PreludeFert / Certuma) sobre cómo desde 🇦🇷 se siguen construyendo compañías tecnológicas con impacto real y escala global. Seguimos apostando al talento y a la innovación para transformar las finanzas en toda la región. 🚀

Essential reading as always from @ksadjadpour. But is Kim Jong Un the right analogy for Mojtaba Khamenei? The North Korean regime is indeed dynastic, but its ideology is less apocalyptic than the Islamic Republic's. This is more like an Iranian "Untergang," but with a Mini-Me Hitler trying to rally mostly non-existent forces to stage Act III of Götterdämmerung.

.@UTAustin is very lucky to have lured @JosephALedford away from @HooverInst!

China v. Taiwan is the wild card. In Cold War terms, it's either 1962 (Cuban Missile Crisis) or 1972 (Nixon in China). Not sure which.