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Palethinker

@Palethinker13

Warm-blooded, I thrive by observing my world & people. I learn from mistakes without repeating them & gain wisdom from strangers’ words, living or not.

Toronto, Ontario 가입일 Nisan 2022
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Jesús Enrique Rosas
The UAE’s decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+ is a high-stakes pivot into a New Energy World Order.  Here's my breakdown of the UAE’s move, the game theory at play, and why they might know something about Iran's real circumstances that nobody else knows. 1. The Strategic Solo Run (Game Theory 101) Imagine you’re in a group chat with a bunch of neighbors. For fifty years, the rule has been: “We all agree to grow only three tomatoes each, so tomatoes stay expensive and we all stay rich.” This is OPEC. It’s less of a "club" and more of a synchronized hoarding agreement. And the UAE has just left that chat. • The Logic: The UAE has spent billions boosting its production capacity to 5 million barrels per day. Under OPEC+ rules, they were essentially being told to leave that expensive machinery gathering dust.  • The Independent Path: By leaving, the UAE is no longer bound by group quotas. They are betting that they can maximize their own volume while Saudi Arabia and the others feel forced to keep their own production low just to prevent a total price collapse. It’s an independent actor strategy. They're prioritizing national revenue over collective price-fixing.  The Game Theory part is that the UAE is betting on other OPEC and OPEC+ countries staying (If EVERY country leaves, the resulting oil glut would crash oil prices and could be catastrophic for the energy industry worldwide) 2. The Iranian Energy Vacuum But why leave now, in the middle of a war? Because Iran’s energy industry is in a state of terminal distress.  • The Burn Reports: Multiple sources indicate Iran is literally burning its own crude at the wellhead because they can’t export it (the Strait of Hormuz is closed) and they can't stop the drills without permanently damaging the reservoirs. • The Opportunity: The UAE likely sees this as the end of Iran as a major market competitor for years to come. They are moving to fill that supply gap permanently. While Iran’s industry is going up in smoke, the UAE is positioning itself as the only stable, high capacity alternative in the region.  3. The Saudi and Trump Factors This is a massive diplomatic read-between-the-lines moment. • The Saudi Rift: Relations with Riyadh have turned frosty since the coalition breakdown in Yemen. The UAE is tired of Saudi Arabia calling the shots on oil prices while also competing for the same foreign investment.  • The US Alliance: Trump has consistently called for more supply to lower gas prices. By exiting OPEC, the UAE is aligning itself directly with Washington’s energy abundance agenda. In exchange for lower prices, the UAE likely expects heightened US security guarantees, which are crucial given the current war and how Iran has attacked them relentlessly. 4. The Fujairah Bypass Advantage While most Gulf oil is trapped behind the contested Strait of Hormuz, the UAE has a geographic cheat code.   • The Habshan–Fujairah pipeline allows them to pump oil directly to the Indian Ocean, skipping the war zone entirely.  • By leaving OPEC, they are selling "Safe Oil" that doesn't have to navigate a naval battleground.  The Bottom Line: The UAE is gambling that the era of cooperative hoarding is over. They are betting that in a world of war and energy transitions, the winner isn't the one who waits for the group, but the one who moves the fastest to monetize their resources. And they're all in in the highest-stakes game theory bet of recent times.
Jesús Enrique Rosas tweet media
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Palethinker
Palethinker@Palethinker13·
Jesús Enrique Rosas@Knesix

The UAE’s decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+ is a high-stakes pivot into a New Energy World Order.  Here's my breakdown of the UAE’s move, the game theory at play, and why they might know something about Iran's real circumstances that nobody else knows. 1. The Strategic Solo Run (Game Theory 101) Imagine you’re in a group chat with a bunch of neighbors. For fifty years, the rule has been: “We all agree to grow only three tomatoes each, so tomatoes stay expensive and we all stay rich.” This is OPEC. It’s less of a "club" and more of a synchronized hoarding agreement. And the UAE has just left that chat. • The Logic: The UAE has spent billions boosting its production capacity to 5 million barrels per day. Under OPEC+ rules, they were essentially being told to leave that expensive machinery gathering dust.  • The Independent Path: By leaving, the UAE is no longer bound by group quotas. They are betting that they can maximize their own volume while Saudi Arabia and the others feel forced to keep their own production low just to prevent a total price collapse. It’s an independent actor strategy. They're prioritizing national revenue over collective price-fixing.  The Game Theory part is that the UAE is betting on other OPEC and OPEC+ countries staying (If EVERY country leaves, the resulting oil glut would crash oil prices and could be catastrophic for the energy industry worldwide) 2. The Iranian Energy Vacuum But why leave now, in the middle of a war? Because Iran’s energy industry is in a state of terminal distress.  • The Burn Reports: Multiple sources indicate Iran is literally burning its own crude at the wellhead because they can’t export it (the Strait of Hormuz is closed) and they can't stop the drills without permanently damaging the reservoirs. • The Opportunity: The UAE likely sees this as the end of Iran as a major market competitor for years to come. They are moving to fill that supply gap permanently. While Iran’s industry is going up in smoke, the UAE is positioning itself as the only stable, high capacity alternative in the region.  3. The Saudi and Trump Factors This is a massive diplomatic read-between-the-lines moment. • The Saudi Rift: Relations with Riyadh have turned frosty since the coalition breakdown in Yemen. The UAE is tired of Saudi Arabia calling the shots on oil prices while also competing for the same foreign investment.  • The US Alliance: Trump has consistently called for more supply to lower gas prices. By exiting OPEC, the UAE is aligning itself directly with Washington’s energy abundance agenda. In exchange for lower prices, the UAE likely expects heightened US security guarantees, which are crucial given the current war and how Iran has attacked them relentlessly. 4. The Fujairah Bypass Advantage While most Gulf oil is trapped behind the contested Strait of Hormuz, the UAE has a geographic cheat code.   • The Habshan–Fujairah pipeline allows them to pump oil directly to the Indian Ocean, skipping the war zone entirely.  • By leaving OPEC, they are selling "Safe Oil" that doesn't have to navigate a naval battleground.  The Bottom Line: The UAE is gambling that the era of cooperative hoarding is over. They are betting that in a world of war and energy transitions, the winner isn't the one who waits for the group, but the one who moves the fastest to monetize their resources. And they're all in in the highest-stakes game theory bet of recent times.

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Palethinker 리트윗함
✨️AreOhEssEyeEe✨️
✨️AreOhEssEyeEe✨️@AreOhEssEyeEe·
Realistically, how many of us do you think it would take to not go to work and not buy anything to put the government into a complete panic and be able to take back some control? And for how long?
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WisdomX
WisdomX@wisdomXplorer·
What type of people annoy you the most?
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The Food Professor
The Food Professor@FoodProfessor·
Something is truly shifting in how Canadians are getting their news. Our podcast is now number one in Canada, even outperforming major American podcasts. We’re now ranked ahead of The Globe and Mail's podcast, BNN Bloomberg, and CNBC for business news. Access to unfiltered news is becoming increasingly important for Canadians. Thank you for listening! Off to Montreal today for SIAL Canada, where we’re proud to be the official podcast for the event.
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Eric St-Pierre
Eric St-Pierre@EricRStPierre·
@FLEXjss I recently stopped buying whey isolate, I simply can't justify the cost. I really liked it. My work around, is more beef and a lot more diary.
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FLEXjs
FLEXjs@FLEXjss·
Last October I bought 10kg of whey isolate in bulk. It was $330. I just went to reorder and now it is $562?!?!? That is a 70% increase in 6 months!!! WTF???
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Palethinker 리트윗함
We don't deserve cats 😺
We don't deserve cats 😺@catsareblessing·
This is my cat Lily 🐱I filmed her on my phone for the first time and showed her the video. Look at the happiness on her face when she saw herself, awww 🥹❤️
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Mario Zelaya
Mario Zelaya@mario4thenorth·
BREAKING @KellyDeRidderMP outlines how the Liberals have been actively trying to recruit her, to cross the floor. She outlines how they do it. How they engage in the conversations. And what they offered her. THIS IS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH DEMOCRACY. It’s all about power
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Palethinker
Palethinker@Palethinker13·
@EricRStPierre I just wonder how tight it will have to be before it is not acceptable anymore: YouTubers are mentioned by MPs. some MSM contributors are looking worried by making surprising statements - surprising themselves as uttering their words The protest is happening on May 16.
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Eric St-Pierre
Eric St-Pierre@EricRStPierre·
@Palethinker13 What is being accomplished by the regime is that the noose is being tightened around our throats.
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Eric St-Pierre
Eric St-Pierre@EricRStPierre·
Question of the Day: Tomorrow is the Spring Economic Update. Will the Carney Liberals finally admit their reckless deficits and money-printing caused our inflation and cost-of-living crisis or blame everything on Trump and “American weaknesses” again?
Eric St-Pierre@EricRStPierre

The Liberals are going to gaslight the public in their Spring Economic Update. They are going to blame the Americans for our inflation, when instead it's their reckless spending that caused it. I wrote my first article today doing a deep dive on what we can expect.

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Palethinker@Palethinker13·
“Resource course” rich in natural resources but population remains poor Congo, Venezuela, Nigeria, Yemen, Bolivia , ….
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Palethinker
Palethinker@Palethinker13·
@NorthrnPrspectv Didn’t Carney say when in Qatar that in a year Canada will have $1 Trillion to invest?
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Northern Perspective
Northern Perspective@NorthrnPrspectv·
🚨CARNEY WANTS YOUR MONEY🚨 Mark Carney just announced a sovereign wealth fund… and openly asked Canadians to put their money into it. But we looked at many other "sovereign wealth funds" and you will never guess who was part of every single one of them. Maybe you will.
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Palethinker@Palethinker13·
@NorthrnPrspectv Canadians wondered where the protest is …. Protest and boycott this fund….
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