Priced Uncertainty

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Priced Uncertainty

Priced Uncertainty

@PricedUncertain

Prediction markets accelerationist. “Text is the artifact. Choice is the source.”

가입일 Haziran 2026
139 팔로잉39 팔로워
고정된 트윗
Priced Uncertainty
Priced Uncertainty@PricedUncertain·
@AdamDraper Once it is clear we are going post-scarcity due to AI, health disparity will be how humans stratify. Lot and lots of opportunity. Bio-hacking / de-aging will have a bigger TAM than space.
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Priced Uncertainty
Priced Uncertainty@PricedUncertain·
@Polymarket Everyone knows that the Democrats are stealing the election. The market is way ahead of it, what will the administration do?
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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
JUST IN: Spencer Pratt now has just a 4% chance of advancing in the LA mayoral race, as officials continue to count mail-in ballots.
Polymarket tweet mediaPolymarket tweet media
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CBS News
CBS News@CBSNews·
Prediction markets offer the lure of fast money. Young men say they like their odds. cbsn.ws/3RODDkQ
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LALIB
LALIB@BilalBusari·
I need minimum of 100 followers today. Lfg!
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brontë bar wench
a pale immortal trading their immortality for the love of a human is actually a very important trope to me
Bryan Johnson@bryan_johnson

I met Kate’s parents. It was a nail bitter. We landed after 24 hours of travel and immediately went to her mum’s house where the family congregated… her mum, dad, auntie, three cousins, sister, brother-in-law, a 3-wk old newborn, brother, and soon-to-be sister-in-law. There were 15 of us crammed into a living room. Upon arriving, someone said “oh I know your content from X”. Blood drained from my face. Nobody could tell though because my face is already pretty pale. Her dad and I hit it off. We cracked macadamia nuts from his tree, used an electric saw to open a coconut, and spoke about being carried as a baby by his 14 year old brother in the Bosnian snow while a German shot at them with a machine gun. Her mother, also from Bosnia, needed some time to warm up. That’s reasonable. I understand. I’m a bit unusual. She’s soft spoken, careful with her words, and protective of her daughter. A few days in and I began to worry that I may head home with an undecided verdict. I decided to live in her mum’s world. I ate everything she prepared, including meat, bread, and pasta, and embraced the discomfort of being an introvert in a week-long marathon social interaction with the entire extended family. We spent time in her garden and she fed me stevia leaves, peppers, celery, chives, peanut berry, grapefruit, and starfruit. Growing up, my mother and I maintained a garden together. I loved tending to it daily and it felt good to be back in the soil. Spending time with Kate’s mum motivated me to grow a longevity garden. Our shared love of gardening was the first big breakthrough. What really sealed the deal was when I interviewed Kate’s mum for an hour on camera, covering her upbringing and life and learning more about Kate. Somehow that format allowed her to see me more clearly than a generic social setting. I think she came to understand and trust my devotion to Kate. In the final hours before my departure, she was radiating with warmth. The entire family had gathered for a meal and it was laughter and teasing all around. My love and respect for Kate deepened. I spent time going through all of her childhood things, helping me see and understand her with greater depth. More on this later. It feels nice to be part of the family.

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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan has said that Gen Z needs to ‘learn how to think in the age of AI," per FORTUNE
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Priced Uncertainty
Priced Uncertainty@PricedUncertain·
@atmoio Writing is what humans did after they learned how to make decisions. AI learned to write. Next it learns to decide. That dataset just doesn’t exist yet. When it does, that’s when everyone should actually be scared.
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Mo
Mo@atmoio·
The funny thing about the AI “intelligence” revolution is that AI is basically a writer. Writing what? Anything. Prose. Poetry. Code. Math. It can write. And the question is, if you automated writing, how disruptive is that? It’s not nothing. But also, it’s a pretty whimsical premise right? Like ha wow writing is solved, THEREFORE EVERYONE AND EVERYTHING IS TRULY FUCKED. Like what? How did you get there? IT CAN WRITE A LOT. REALLY FAST. oooo, spooky Clearly the non-delusional take is every human gains an expensive writing/research assistant. And this is clearly, demonstrably the full extent of the revolution.
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Priced Uncertainty
Priced Uncertainty@PricedUncertain·
BNPL is just a prediction market where Affirm is always the house and you’re always the sucker.
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kapilansh
kapilansh@kapilansh_twt·
looking to connect people on X if you're into - building SaaS - vibe coding - AI tools - Building your X account - shipping in public - figuring it out as you go say Hi or drop what you're working on looking to connect with active ones 👋
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Tiana
Tiana@callmetiana688·
Who needs a quick boost before others wake up
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Priced Uncertainty
Priced Uncertainty@PricedUncertain·
@BoringBiz_ Trump should pardon SBF and he should be put in charge of a sovereign wealth fund but monitored 24/7
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Boring_Business
Boring_Business@BoringBiz_·
Sam Bankman Fried might have been one of the best venture investors of our generation If he had just started a venture fund instead of FTX, investors and LPs would be lining up to give him money
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shah
shah@shahh·
For people who have survived multiple bear markets What’s the #1 piece of advice you’d give to someone right now?
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ABC7 Eyewitness News
#BREAKING James "Weston" Higginbotham, the 20-year-old American student missing in Japan since last week, was found dead by volunteers searching a mountainous area near Kyoto, his mother said in a Facebook post on Saturday. He was reported missing on May 29 while on a trip with his family, after he stopped responding to his family's messages on the phone and turned off his location, according to authorities. abc7.la/XIpaqa
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Priced Uncertainty
Priced Uncertainty@PricedUncertain·
@chamath This is actually very astute. It may also play out for ride-share once vehicles are FSD and can be used for trips when not driven by the primary.
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Chamath Palihapitiya
Capital investment cycles are not always extremely short - like they are in tech. In many non tech businesses, they can be extremely long and sneak up on you. And it can affect investor returns massively. Look at Airbnb. I was curious to understand why the company was range bound despite the underlying economics. What few hosts realized when they joined Airbnb is that after many years of guests, their homes would become “well used” and sometimes dilapidated and require upgrades, updates and general maintenance/TLC. Otherwise guest quality would trend down and their pricing power would go down with it. Even though Airbnb is asset light, after so many years in the market they are now more levered to the capital investment cycle, home improvement ability and, as a result, the credit quality of their hosts, downstream. That’s a much tougher (read, low return) business than an asset light marketplace. That affects return assumptions. And that, more than anything else, has influenced the stock since going public, imo.
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Stijn Noorman
Stijn Noorman@stijnnoorman·
I quit X. After 3 months. Because I only hit 183 followers. This mistake cost me 6 months of progress. Don't quit. Trust the process.
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Priced Uncertainty
Priced Uncertainty@PricedUncertain·
@AdamDraper Once it is clear we are going post-scarcity due to AI, health disparity will be how humans stratify. Lot and lots of opportunity. Bio-hacking / de-aging will have a bigger TAM than space.
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Adam Draper ⏻
Adam Draper ⏻@AdamDraper·
I believe this next wave of Bio is going to be bigger than anyone can imagine. Multiple $10T companies. Maybe even a 100 Trillion dollar company.
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Priced Uncertainty
Priced Uncertainty@PricedUncertain·
@a16z Excellent point. Prediction markets, at full realization and scale are precisely the context AI models need to be fed perpetually.
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a16z
a16z@a16z·
Mira Murati says human-AI collaboration needs models that can listen while they think: "The types of models that we work with today, they're very turn-based. You talk, they talk, then they go off and think." "While they're thinking, it's almost like they're deaf and blind. They cannot perceive anything else about what's going on." "By contrast, our interactions with each other are very rich. There is a lot of information in our interactions when we are silent, when we're thinking, when we're interrupting one another." "Interaction models are able to capture all of this nuance. They're not turn-based. They're more like time-based interaction, where they're continuously taking in audio, text, video, and continuously providing output." "This enables you to catch things like interruptions and simultaneous speech, and really create a rich, high bandwidth interaction between humans and machines." @miramurati at Bloomberg Tech live with @emilychangtv
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