Rahul Sharma

24.9K posts

Rahul Sharma

@Retail_Guru

Ex Global Consumer Fund Manager: 16 years at Citi, Alliance Capital in NYC, London, Singapore. Founder, Neev Capital. Strictly personal musings & not advice...

가입일 Mart 2009

219 팔로잉13.5K 팔로워

Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·3h

You could say all is fair in love and war. But goes to show how far Dubai goes to protect Emirates. Really for other governments to respond in kind. That talk of unfair competition from both Asian & European pera rings very true

Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru

This piece from @FT makes clear how far the UAE is going to help its jewel, Emirates, to protect its franchise. All is fair in love and war... Or is it? 🙄

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·8h

PR fluff for Marina Bay Sands. Talking about well grounded kids 🤣 $LVS

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·10h

Despite obvious challenges, no signs consumer is flagging anywhere yet. This is $LEVI reporting strength everywhere, including (surprisingly), Europe and China. Resilience led by solid labor markets still remains name of the game. 💪 $XLF $XLY $IDEXF $WMT $AMZN $WSM

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·1 Nis

Solid February US retail sales. Strength across discretionary categories from DIY to sporting to apparel. Online & eating out solid. Furniture only weak category. $XLY $XLF $WMT $AMZN $BBY $MCD $DKS

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·1 Nis

Maybe because Friedman doesn’t want written word quoted back to him, $RH release doesn’t have any! But usual macro, jam tomorrow & beating competition (on very selective timeless!) talk all still there. And now the idol is $AMZN not $AAPL or Hermes 🙄 $WSM

Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru

Gem from Friedman on Europe. First England was game changer but then no that was only a country estate but Paris ooh! Now, wait for it, only 8% of $RH business comes from cities! So zilch on how Europe is doing. And despite zero sales in region Friedman bemoaning macros!! 🤡

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·1 Nis

Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru

Friedman the ‘seer’. Incredible how much slack folks still cut him. For all that talk of excitement around Modern, Contemporary without skipping a beat he goes back to saying how 60% of business is ‘traditional’ and how great $RH is there. 😂 $WSM $RH

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·1 Nis

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·31 Mar

@IadisGr8 Emirates is only up to 60% of pre-war capacity & Etihad/Qatar far less. Competition avoiding ME has added capacity between Asia/Europe but relatively miniscule & at MUCH higher fares vs pre-war esp Mar/Apr.

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IAD Gr8@IadisGr8·31 Mar

@Retail_Guru The capacity is there - they are operating flights - people aren’t taking the gamble to use it

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·31 Mar

Travel contagion is spreading - not just limited to Middle East. Emirates et al play a big role in connecting Asia to ROW & that capacity hasn’t been replaced & alternatives are now $$$ = demand destruction $ABNB $MAR $BKNG $XLY $XLF $DAL $UAL $AXP $V $MA

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·30 Mar

This piece from @FT makes clear how far the UAE is going to help its jewel, Emirates, to protect its franchise. All is fair in love and war... Or is it? 🙄

Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru

ME carriers (Emirates in particular) are no pushovers. Flying full planes out of Gulf for now, catching up with backlog but flying back near empty planes. Lots of cancellations/no shows. Incredibly tough to plan but essential to keep franchise going timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/inter…

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·30 Mar

From aircons to phones to medicines - inflation impacts run way wider than just oil, gas & fertiliser. At very least shows how much unhealthy global reliance on one small region & narrow strait is!

Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru

Newspapers full of stories about potential impact of this war, creating a doom loop. But no denying how widespread impacts are, yet how little airing secondary effects (beyond just oil, gas & maybe fertiliser) are getting in market discourse. $XLY $XLF $XLI $XLE

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·27 Mar

Yes we’re all hyper focused on potential doom but take a moment to appreciate just how strong consumer is for now, especially on categories they value. Very strong at Carnival & yet another indicator how insulated US is from news cycle $CCL $FDX $DAL $AXP $XLY $XLF

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·26 Mar

@TraceyRyniec thats my bigger fear about my summer flights. fully flexible but hey I would probably need to buy crazy $$$ flights at last minute 😅

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Tracey Ryniec@TraceyRyniec·26 Mar

@Retail_Guru High ticket prices will create demand destruction. And, with jet fuel at $200 a barrel, they can't make money flying anyway. Will cancel non essential flights, eventually.

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·26 Mar

Yup that’s why I decided to stay on extra month in India as I had to be back again at end of month. First it was just March due to Gulf lockdown. Now airlines are jacking up base fares for rest of 2026 - watching jet fuel, Gulf uncertainty & of course sensing an opportunity

Bloomberg@business

Travelers hoping for a drop in long-haul airfares are in for a brutal reality check. Ticket prices on major routes connecting Asia and Europe have surged up to 560% this month, and are likely to stay elevated as war-related disruptions ripple through the Persian Gulf, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·26 Mar

@TraceyRyniec Yes I've booked all travel in past couple of weeks to cover me to end of summer. Refrained from booking any later as base line fares have gone up a ton & I can't believe they can stay there in the fall if oil eases.

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Tracey Ryniec@TraceyRyniec·26 Mar

@Retail_Guru It's going to get expensive to fly anywhere. Right now, US flights aren't too bad. But United said they'd raise prices 20% if this continues.

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Tracey Ryniec@TraceyRyniec·26 Mar

Gulp.

Bloomberg@business

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·26 Mar

@TraceyRyniec Haha don't jinx me! Have paid up for a journey back after Easter for whole family avoiding ME. And some are arriving here tomorrow night just after Trump's latest deadline 🫣

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Tracey Ryniec@TraceyRyniec·26 Mar

@Retail_Guru Some may get trapped in some countries as jet fuel shortages happen. If you can not travel right now, I would recommend it.

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·26 Mar

Next, UK's #1 discretionary retailer, saw surprising strength 4 weeks into war. International hit by Middle East where 6% exposure leads to modest guide cut. Manageable thru Q1 but beyond, prices will need to rise, hitting demand. No surprise but first to put in print. $XLY $XLF

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·24 Mar

Weaker than expected services PMIs in Europe contrast to solid US plus continued retail strength +6.7% per Redbook. Europe's economies roadkill despite being bystanders while US holding up for now, despite being main war protagonist. Again highlighting relative US sheltering.

Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru

Based on this strength till end-Feb, Fedex sees US strength continuing & has not seen it wane in March-to-date. Have to reiterate how sheltered America is vs rest of world - doubt confidence has held up to this extent in other regions! $FDX $UPS $XLY $XLI $XLF

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Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru·24 Mar

On top of course, Puig itself has bought a ton of stuff over the years & $EL hasn’t exactly covered itself with glory in recent acquisitions. And risk of overpaying amid nascent recovery. Have to say why now & can see why Estee got marked down 11% despite already being on knees

Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru

Objectively, clear rationale for Estee buying Puig. Low fragrance exposure key to why $EL growth has lagged. Charlotte Tillbury hot like MAC once was. Trouble is so much margin/sales to recover with only nascent signs of share/profit recovery & now a war to deal with. 🙄 $LRLCY

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