Ric Torres
35.1K posts
@RicTorresII
Writer/Producer | Co-Founder @PochoVillaProds 🎥 with @LaloAlcaraz | Amplifying Chicano voices through storytelling | #Chicano #CalBears #FBR
CA GOV -- How many ballots remain & why it's such a large margin for @TomSteyer to overcome: The NYT is posting an estimate of 68% counted with 6,465,077 in, that suggests a total haul of 9,507,466. With 23,155,447 total registered, that would be a turnout rate of 41.1% - considerably higher than 37.5% turnout in June 2018, and near the record of 42.5% turnout in June 1998 (for midterm primary). If there are indeed 3,042,389 ballots still to be counted, then @TomSteyer needs to make SIGNIFICANT gains on Hilton in the next two batches, which seems unlikely. He gained 50k out of the last 900k and if that same trends holds, he would gain 169k over the final 3.0M. That leaves him 174k short and in 3rd. To close that gap he needs to average 113k gain out of 1.0M ballots posted, over 2x what he did yesterday. It's possible, just not probable. There are many large counties where Steyer can theoretically make up ground, but he also TRAILS Hilton in many large counties that still have hundreds of thousands to count such as Orange, San Diego, Fresno, Kern, Riverside, San Bernardino. Those counties will hurt Steyer because Hilton will continue to post more votes than Steyer there, and they are very big counties. Steyer needs Republican votes to dry up and while they are slowing, they are not zero.
IIRC it was 400k when there were 5M ballots were counted and it’s 350k after 6M. 50k for every million counted is not quite good enough (headed from 150-200k margin). I’ll just wait for the next half million or so to be counted and update this.
Hilton overperformed today in Central Valley counties and key Southland counties like Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino. Even with Steyer beating expectations in many large counties, Hilton’s projected margin rose from 0.6% to 1.3%, moving his win chance from 62% to 85%.
Where things stand Los Angeles County 🔵 Steyer +33k Bay Area 🔵 Steyer +99k Rest Southern California 🔴 Hilton +262k Rest Northern California 🔴 Hilton +110k Central/San Joaquin Valley 🔴 Hilton +102k NET 🔴 Hilton +343k
IIRC it was 400k when there were 5M ballots were counted and it’s 350k after 6M. 50k for every million counted is not quite good enough (headed from 150-200k margin). I’ll just wait for the next half million or so to be counted and update this.
